Inflation and a recession are now here :(
- Thread starter lawpoke87
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You keep choosing to ignore the possibility (and its probability) that the economy would have been worse off had we not given the stimulus at the time.
Let's not forget that we don't have the same constantly available social safety net that some of our European counterparts do either.
She did not attribute inflation to the stimulus package.More confirmation of how the Admin screwed up by pumping cash into an inflationary environment. At least Yellen now appears to recognize the error. Crazy a dumb lawyer in Tulsa called this but an entire Admin couldn’t see the same. Yet no one has lost their job
MSN
www.msn.com
Yellen was carefully and stated the Admin “misjudged” inflation. Others in the article directly contributed inflation to the last stimulus. Something at least one of us knew when it was announced.
Those who claimed inflation was merely transitory might want to take a lap.
Sorry Aston. Yellen apparently warned Biden. Yellen knows the stimulus was a disaster and is now trying to distance herself from the same.
It’s pretty crazy how I come over here once every six months and see you parrot what you read on Twitter or wherever and you still haven’t figured out you should at least independently check what you read. You are being lied to. Again and again. But you keep sipping the Kool-Aid.
Blaming the stimulus ignores that Trump added 1/3 of our national debt in 4 years, cut taxes, etc. in his attempt to rev up the economy an enrich his base. The idea that the economy resets every election cycle is silly.
www.propublica.org
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
www.propublica.org
Enlighten us. How specifically did Trump’s tax cuts result in the inflation we’re seeing today ?Blaming the stimulus ignores that Trump added 1/3 of our national debt in 4 years, cut taxes, etc. in his attempt to rev up the economy an enrich his base. The idea that the economy resets every election cycle is silly.
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
you are installing new energy efficient windows to help save the planet, when your house catches on fire.
you dont keep installing the new windows while the fire is raging
you dont keep installing the new windows while the fire is raging
Sorry Lawpoke. She denied that story.
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“I never urged adoption of a smaller American Rescue Plan package,” she said, insisting that the funds have helped the United States economy weather the pandemic and the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Pressed by Senator Steve Daines, a Republican from Montana, about the extent to which the stimulus money fueled inflation, Ms. Yellen argued that countries around the world were all grappling with rising prices and yet pursued different fiscal policies.
“It can’t be the case that the bulk of the inflation that we’re experiencing reflects the impact of the A.R.P.,” Ms. Yellen said.
“I guess I see the bulk of inflation as reflecting supply and demand factors,”
What are you talking about? Maybe you should check what you read. Or you know, listen to what people say rather than believing every 3rd party story you read in an alt-right column.
Certainly sounds like she did indeed attribute inflation to the stimulus package. She simply qualified it by not attributing “the bulk” of inflation. Of course anyone who knows anything about economics understand you can’t add trillions of dollars into the money supply without inflationary pressure.Sorry Lawpoke. She denied that story.
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www.ft.com
“I never urged adoption of a smaller American Rescue Plan package,” she said, insisting that the funds have helped the United States economy weather the pandemic and the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Pressed by Senator Steve Daines, a Republican from Montana, about the extent to which the stimulus money fueled inflation, Ms. Yellen argued that countries around the world were all grappling with rising prices and yet pursued different fiscal policies.
“It can’t be the case that the bulk of the inflation that we’re experiencing reflects the impact of the A.R.P.,” Ms. Yellen said.
“I guess I see the bulk of inflation as reflecting supply and demand factors,”
If there wasn't the supply, demand, and transport issues from the pandemic, if we hadn't given the relief package, if the Russians hadn't attacked Ukraine and caused fuel prices to skyrocket. I'd say these issues wouldn't be causing nearly as serious of inflation by themselves. Why is it so important to find which one caused more inflation than the other. I'd say it's close enough to an equal split, that it really just doesn't matter. You are all going to vote down party lines anyway, and that's the only thing it supposedly could have an effect on. It's just playing the blame game. That resolves nothing.
I would add a couple of caveats: It is important to understand what caused and us currently causing inflation in order to combat the same. If you don’t believe that pouring trillions of dollars into the market at a time when there was a shortage of goods and services significantly contributed to inflationary pressures then you’re likely skeptical of reducing the money supple today as an effective tool to tame inflation. The opposite is obviously true if one does believe injecting trillions into an economy experiencing supply shortages was a significant factor. It’s also an important lesson for future supply side shortages and how we handle the same.
Yes I realize the mechanics you are talking about. I studied economics. You act as if it had one main cause, it did not. You are having the debate over whether Yellen admitted that as the main cause. You are not discussing what Yellen is doing about it, just what she is saying is most to blame. It was essentially the perfect storm of causes.
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Let me clarify. The current mess has several factors which have led us to the historically high inflation we are seeing today. I do believe it’s fair to focus on the trillions we injected into the system at a time of supply side issues as it’s the one factor we had complete control over. Unless one believes the lockdowns lasted longer than necessary.
Suppose I’m also a little personally invested since I called this the moment the last stimulus was announced and was dismissed by some
. Then it went to transitory, etc..
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One more issue being glossed over, is that both Trump and Biden wanted it, and supported it. The only people who were trying to pull back on it were some Republicans in congress. But that's all Monday morning quarterbacking unless you are having a debate over what is being done about it. Because at this point, what we had complete control over is not nearly as important as what we have complete control over.
Correct. But what we do about it has a lot to do with if we’re willing to admit we have too many dollars chasing too few goods and services. I do believe the Fed has acknowledged this without saying it btw. The question now becomes can we reduce inflation without stalling the economy? We also face a significant decline in real wages. I believe stagflation is almost inevitable with Americans experiencing a significant loss of purchasing power. Really tough for the lower and middle classes. The Admin seems to be sitting in the sidelines and almost solely relying on the Fed while parroting the same talking point of “things are actually good”. I don’t view this as a winning strategy politically or economically.
There is also the issue that now there is going to be a glut in the market of too many dry goods and that they will probably be discounting them. It is an uneven market that is too much, not enough, and never meets in the middle at the goldilocks point.
Interesting. When do you believe the surplus will surface and are there certain dry goods you’re referencing ? A surplus would obviously help ease inflationary pressures
Department store, Walmarty dry goods. I assume it will happen in the next couple of months, but I really don't know the actual release of these goods on the market, just that their is a glut coming. I assume it may be too small of a segment of the overall economy to have a grand easing effect. But I could be wrong on how big of an effect it will have.
I've read bits and pieces about it in the news, but in a quick google search, this was the only thing I could easily find. You can look a little harder if you are interested in reading more than one source.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...8d7da6-e66c-11ec-a422-11bbb91db30b_story.html
In the seventies there was a disparity in pricing increases in consumer goods depending on durability and shelf life.
Consumers feared rising prices so they would purchase some items, like dry food essentials, pasta, rice, canned goods, dried milk, in bulk. That led to supply chain problems and pressure on prices due to demand. Perishable goods actually held steady in some cases.
Other durable goods, such as refrigerators, dishwashers, saw price increases, not due to demand, which was low amongst consumers with strained income, but because prices had to be raised to meet overall production/profit goals based on lower sales volume and higher transportation costs.
A substantial portion of retail profits are tied to low cost luxury purchases that buyers are foregoing. The lady buying LV bags still has money to do that. The lady buying $30 purses five times a year at Target is only buying one now. And that will leave 4 on the shelf that will lead to a glut which will lead to discounted pricing, lower profit margins and ultimately threatened stock prices. Wait for it, you are going to see insanely low prices on undesired clothing from major manufacturers in the Fall right before Xmas. Those $75 running shorts right now in black will be $85 at Xmas but $10 in neon yellow.
it’s why the feds invented the CPI. To track these disparities, account for them, and adequately defend why their disastrous oil and banking policies really weren’t causing mom and pop as much trouble at the kitchen table that the Republicans were saying they were enduring.
No idea what will happen this time around except it will involve printing more money to avoid pain rather than acting like a serious country with a competent government.
Consumers feared rising prices so they would purchase some items, like dry food essentials, pasta, rice, canned goods, dried milk, in bulk. That led to supply chain problems and pressure on prices due to demand. Perishable goods actually held steady in some cases.
Other durable goods, such as refrigerators, dishwashers, saw price increases, not due to demand, which was low amongst consumers with strained income, but because prices had to be raised to meet overall production/profit goals based on lower sales volume and higher transportation costs.
A substantial portion of retail profits are tied to low cost luxury purchases that buyers are foregoing. The lady buying LV bags still has money to do that. The lady buying $30 purses five times a year at Target is only buying one now. And that will leave 4 on the shelf that will lead to a glut which will lead to discounted pricing, lower profit margins and ultimately threatened stock prices. Wait for it, you are going to see insanely low prices on undesired clothing from major manufacturers in the Fall right before Xmas. Those $75 running shorts right now in black will be $85 at Xmas but $10 in neon yellow.
it’s why the feds invented the CPI. To track these disparities, account for them, and adequately defend why their disastrous oil and banking policies really weren’t causing mom and pop as much trouble at the kitchen table that the Republicans were saying they were enduring.
No idea what will happen this time around except it will involve printing more money to avoid pain rather than acting like a serious country with a competent government.
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We are not the only country facing historically high levels of inflationary pressures right now. “The bulk” of the inflationary pressures are the ones that matter across the globe at the moment. Those are the ones that the intelligent among us predicted back when covid started… long before any Covid related packages were thought of, much less passed. And those are the ones that are hurting us the most. Also, coincidentally the ones that are the hardest to solve and most difficult to place blame on.
I’ve worked at the highest levels of the federal government off and on for 30 years. There’s one thing I know for sure. Both sides are addicted to the “log rolling” or “barn raising” philosophy of monetary policy. Nobody is willing to risk their 40 acres of government or pork by opposing anybody else’s. Nor is either side willing to risk the electoral pain of slowing down the economy by cutting fed spending.
We’re already seeing this with Target. I will say this is not a bad evaluation. It’s market dynamics mixed with supply and demand.
You lost me on this topic last year when you claimed inflation was only transitory. Most of us knew the Admin claim was hogwash.
All of this said, how quickly can we get inflation back into the desired 3% range and what are the odds we avoid a recession ?
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Odds we avoid recession 0.0% How fast can we get to 3%? Probably within 2 years.
There’s no historic precedent for that. Try six to ten.
Not to mention we are going to have once in a generation shift in the House of up to 50 seats, the Senate firmly R, and a lame duck President running for President in a geriatric demented fantasy that not only more of this will work, but he’s the only one who can do it.
McConnell will have a laundry list of spending to make up for progressive resource shifts and the money will keep flowing.
We are in an economic spiral with China, UK, and Japan with death grips on each other’s throats. There’s no getting off without a 1970’s style UK economic correction.
Thru what, increased oil output?
NO IT'S NOT avoidable.
Even if the Elephants did a reverse course and allowed any and all new oil output, it wouldn't happen in time to avoid a recession. You act like there is a spigot you can turn on in 5 minutes.
What a lunkhead!
Said in the full on spirit of All in the Family.
You are a caricature of the caricature of Archie Bunker.(satire on satire)
I don't think a Recession is a sure thing.
Healthy job growth supports a reasonably favorable outlook for consumers.
Unemployment rate not signaling a coming recession.
Wage gains should keep the Fed on its path of upcoming rate hikes.
But we're not in the all clear of avoiding a recession.
Things can change quickly due to unforeseen events.
Healthy job growth supports a reasonably favorable outlook for consumers.
Unemployment rate not signaling a coming recession.
Wage gains should keep the Fed on its path of upcoming rate hikes.
But we're not in the all clear of avoiding a recession.
Things can change quickly due to unforeseen events.
I don’t believe things are near as rosy as you’re painting them. Real wages have decreased for 13 straight months. That is anything but a favorable scenario for consumers. Both business and personal bankruptcies will begin to rise. Small businesses won’t be able to pass on the inflationary costs to their customers. Individuals will feel the effect of deceasing real wages and default on their obligations. Still hoping for the best.
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