Inflation and a recession are now here :(

URedskin54

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Ratcheting up US oil and gas production seems like a no-brainer approach to pair with continued support for Ukraine (which I’m also in favor of). If you’re going to lengthen a conflict that disrupts European energy supply and ultimately you don’t want them to be dependent on Russia long term, why not try to ratchet up production here?
 

aTUfan

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Ratcheting up US oil and gas production seems like a no-brainer approach to pair with continued support for Ukraine (which I’m also in favor of). If you’re going to lengthen a conflict that disrupts European energy supply and ultimately you don’t want them to be dependent on Russia long term, why not try to ratchet up production here?
we had before biden.
 

lawpoke87

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Help me out here. Biden says Americans will suffer with high energy prices and inflation for as long as it takes to defeat Russia. Yet we aren’t doing what it would take to defeat Russia. Any of our Biden apologist care to tackle this reasoning?


 

HuffyCane

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Help me out here. Biden says Americans will suffer with high energy prices and inflation for as long as it takes to defeat Russia. Yet we aren’t doing what it would take to defeat Russia. Any of our Biden apologist care to tackle this reasoning?


The disorganization, lack of image/message discipline and unwitting projection of weakness by this administration is mind boggling. It’s like they want to project they are powerless on everything except the unilateral actions the far left forces them to make. The Republican primary will be decided by who can best exploit these types of inconsistencies. It might not be DeSantis.
 
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lawpoke87

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Moreover, Ukraine simply isn’t winning with the support we’re providing


 

Gmoney4WW

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Or gas price reflecting hopefulness about the Ukraine folding in the near future? Maybe betting recession or Ukraine folding will happen. Either way the price drops if the West doesn't hold onto these sanctions with Russia for long.
 

URedskin54

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Housing will definitely tank. Demand still seems fairly strong elsewhere, so who knows. Seems likely that inflation is starting to ease though
 

lawpoke87

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Or gas price reflecting hopefulness about the Ukraine folding in the near future? Maybe betting recession or Ukraine folding will happen. Either way the price drops if the West doesn't hold onto these sanctions with Russia for long.
Treasuries tanking is a recessionary sign. Unless we are threatening to pull our military support I don’t see Ukraine agreeing to give Putin those eastern territories. Which is what it will take to end this war.

New mortgage applications have tanked. We will begin to see the trickle down in the housing market shortly.
 

Gmoney4WW

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Treasuries tanking is a recessionary sign. Unless we are threatening to pull our military support I don’t see Ukraine agreeing to give Putin those eastern territories. Which is what it will take to end this war.

New mortgage applications have tanked. We will begin to see the trickle down in the housing market shortly.
They may be forced to, but I don't see it happening any time soon. But I don't know their demeanor after losing Lysychansk. The administrations of the western countries and the higher ups in oil companies by back channel sources would be better informed though.
 

astonmartin708

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Treasuries tanking is a recessionary sign. Unless we are threatening to pull our military support I don’t see Ukraine agreeing to give Putin those eastern territories. Which is what it will take to end this war.

New mortgage applications have tanked. We will begin to see the trickle down in the housing market shortly.
#predictable #whatthefedwants #covidsucks #putinsuckstoo
 

HuffyCane

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Treasuries tanking is a recessionary sign. Unless we are threatening to pull our military support I don’t see Ukraine agreeing to give Putin those eastern territories. Which is what it will take to end this war.

New mortgage applications have tanked. We will begin to see the trickle down in the housing market shortly.
My mother was born in a tiny “town” in the middle of nowhere. It’s really just a grouping of houses. No stop light, no gas station. Nearest small grocery store is 30 minutes up and down icy roads half the year. They have no internet or cellphone access. Nobody with 100 miles of that place that wasn’t born there and expects to be buried alongside 8 generations of relatives wants to live there. The cheapest house in that enclave in an undesirable state was $300,000 last month. It’s in the mid $200,000 now. You could buy a house from a present owner who had no desire to sell for $120,000 or less in 2019. Speculation and moving assets into that market is in a swift downward arc. You won’t see it in Tulsa, Dallas and Nashville for awhile but it’s already hitting the fringes of the market.
 

HuffyCane

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Treasuries tanking is a recessionary sign. Unless we are threatening to pull our military support I don’t see Ukraine agreeing to give Putin those eastern territories. Which is what it will take to end this war.

New mortgage applications have tanked. We will begin to see the trickle down in the housing market shortly.
Don’t be so certain Putin would just take the east. He’s effectively manipulated the Russian Orthodox Church into supporting this war as a redemption of conservative values. Contrary to what you read in western media, a substantial number of Russians view the war as not only necessary but a moral imperative. He can’t just say at this point “Jesus told me Donbass is enough and we don’t need to unite the rest of the ethnic Russians”.
 

aTUfan

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biden takes credit for gas price reduction after he releases oil leases. maybe he will release all the ones he canceled so we dont have to rely on foreign oil, and our price wiil go back to normal.
 

URedskin54

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Funny stuff from the economist

A88-BA5-B7-C76-A-4934-BAFE-14445-B47-B6-C0.jpg
 

lawpoke87

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June CPI comes in at a sizzling 9.1% 😱😱😱. Will the Fed respond by raising another 75 basis points?

Gratifying to see organizations now acknowledging what some of us have been saying for the last two years
 

astonmartin708

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astonmartin708

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June CPI comes in at a sizzling 9.1% 😱😱😱. Will the Fed respond by raising another 75 basis points?

Gratifying to see organizations now acknowledging what some of us have been saying for the last two years
Largely due to gas prices and associated transport costs. That’s a value that has nothing to do with any stimulus. (At least since refined product demand isnt substantially higher than it was before Covid)

Core inflation which excludes food and energy rose 0.7% which was above wall street’s forecast but the rate of that core rate increase is actually slowing. Hopefully that points to us moving towards an Inflection point in price increases.
 

lawpoke87

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From the same analyst a couple of months previous to the second stimulus bill being passed:

Did you read the article? He says the stimulus will cause inflation. Even mentions interest rates at 10% post stimulus. He’s talking about Wall Street not Main Street. Not a single word about the effect on consumers. Simply the inflation which will be triggered by the stimulus will be good for stocks due to much higher interest rates. He was correct about the effects.

Meanwhile, extremely tough times for the lower and middle class who are seeing the greatest reduction in terms of real income in decades.
 
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lawpoke87

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Largely due to gas prices and associated transport costs. That’s a value that has nothing to do with any stimulus. (At least since refined product demand isnt substantially higher than it was before Covid)

Core inflation which excludes food and energy rose 0.7% which was above wall street’s forecast but the rate of that core rate increase is actually slowing. Hopefully that points to us moving towards an Inflection point in price increases.
There’s zero doubt inflation will slow. Decreasing the money supply will do just that. I still expect the Fed to raise rates by at least 75 basis points as they don’t see enough of a slowdown in inflation to change course.
 

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