Excellent story on Navy and competing in the AAC

[TU4ever2]

Some good journalism, a rarity these days.

Discusses the rigor of playing in the AAC and the level of commitment the Naval Academy needs to compete.

While some of the challenges are different the questions for Tulsa football are similar in keeping up with the Joneses and what the conference demands are.

Some quotes and speculation on new media deal, P6 marketing nothing major or in depth on them though.

https://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/navy_sports/ac-cs-wags-navy-follow-column-20181125-story.html

 

[TU_BLA]

That is a good article. TU is in one of the 2% of the schools without a separate dining facility however. The Case building does have a nutrition center for football players but I do not believe daily full meals are served there. (The dining options on campus are much better than when I was a student and even when I worked at TU).

 

[lawpoke87]

Odd seeing Memphis listed as one of the four conference schools who strives to compete at the highest level considering what they've been for the last four decades absent the last four or so years. Still not totally sold on their staying power as a consistent conference champion contender.

 

[TU_BLA]

Odd seeing Memphis listed as one of the four conference schools who strives to compete at the highest level considering what they've been for the last four decades absent the last four or so years. Still not totally sold on their staying power as a consistent conference champion contender.

The DeAngelo Williams' Memphis teams were pretty special.

 

[lawpoke87]

The DeAngelo Williams' Memphis teams were pretty special.

They were decent. 8-4 and 7-5 his last two seasons. We beat them his senior year. Strange thing is that he never won a conference championship. They've won one conference championship since 1972 fwiw.

 

[TU_BLA]

They were decent. 8-4 and 7-5 his last two seasons. We beat them his senior year. Strange thing is that he never won a conference championship. They've won one conference championship since 1972 fwiw.

I remember beating him his senior year. 1/2 yard in OT. Our first year in C-USA. I also remember their coach (Tommy West?) lobbying for the Liberty Bowl to take Memphis over us.

 

[goldenhurricane2]

Good article. I really hope that $10 million figure comes into fruition... that would be such a burden lifted off the athletic department (and university).

 

[TU4ever2]

Good article. I really hope that $10 million figure comes into fruition... that would be such a burden lifted off the athletic department (and university).

8-12 is the range most often quoted and also matches up with viewers. However Amazon seems to want to get in on sports and is bidding on the FSR. The ACC network will take up some current ESPN content and NBC seems interested. That sort of enviorment would lead to top end bidding.

Everyone should be a UCF fan right now.

The ideal situation is a Texas win over OU, Northwestern over OSU, Alabama beats Georgia like a drum. Likely puts UCF in the play off and the AAC in the media money.

 

[TU_BLA]

8-12 is the range most often quoted and also matches up with viewers. However Amazon seems to want to get in on sports and is bidding on the FSR. The ACC network will take up some current ESPN content and NBC seems interested. That sort of enviorment would lead to top end bidding.

Everyone should be a UCF fan right now.

The ideal situation is a Texas win over OU, Northwestern over OSU, Alabama beats Georgia like a drum. Likely puts UCF in the play off and the AAC in the media money.

I like your optimism for UCF...the powers that be will never let it happen. While I entirely believe Northwestern will actually beat Ohio State this weekend and Texas could win, I don't think it matters who wins the SEC Championship game if those 2 things happen, both UGA and Bama will be in.

 

[lawpoke87]

I would love to see UCF in the final four but there's is no way on God's green earth that the committee will bump UCF over Bama. Situations like this are why the P5s took the power away from computers and placed it into the hands of individuals.

 

[TU4ever2]

If my scenario plays out, there will be four undefeated teams and no one loss teams left.

UCF will be in.

 

[lawpoke87]

The committee ranked Michigan ahead of UCF after getting drubbed by Ohio State. They think more of Georgia than they do Michigan and more of Bama than they do Ohio State. I see no way UCF jumps Michigan and Georgia based on a win against a non-ranked opponent. In fact, UCF hasn’t played a team who is currently ranked. Add that to the fact that Milton out...all of which they will consider. No chance a team gets in without playing a team which is ranked in the final poll.

 

[aTUfan]

Which is more significent?
Romping a top 10 team or
Getting trounsed by an also ran?

 

[TU4ever2]

The committee ranked Michigan ahead of UCF after getting drubbed by Ohio State. They think more of Georgia than they do Michigan and more of Bama than they do Ohio State. I see no way UCF jumps Michigan and Georgia based on a win against a non-ranked opponent. In fact, UCF hasn’t played a team who is currently ranked. Add that to the fact that Milton out...all of which they will consider. No chance a team gets in without playing a team which is ranked in the final poll.

Pretty sure we're going to get to see. . .

By the way how did Game Day look in Orlando?opcorn:

 

[lawpoke87]

Pretty sure we're going to get to see. . .

By the way how did Game Day look in Orlando?opcorn:

Looked good. Happy for them. Wasn’t surprised their primetime game drew 800k less viewers than the OSU-WVa afternoon game though .

Hope we do see. The number gurus at ESPN who have insight to the methodology the committee utilized puts the odds of UCF making the playoffs at less than 1% btw.

 

[TU4ever2]

Looked good. Happy for them. Wasn’t surprised their primetime game drew 800k less viewers than the OSU-WVa afternoon game though .

Hope we do see. The number gurus at ESPN who have insight to the methodology the committee utilized puts the odds of UCF making the playoffs at less than 1% btw.

That was two weeks ago, the odds have improved with the OSU victory. The 1% was that and the above scenario.

Yes the ND vs Syracuse game stole some viewers that wv and OSU's upset didn't contend with.

The USF/UCF game was something like a 40% increase over the same time slot and channel game last year.

In fact the only football property gaining viewers in Disney Land is the AAC. All the other viewership growth has been on Fox and a small tick up on NBC who is reportedly shown interested in the AAC.

 

[lawpoke87]

That was two weeks ago, the odds have improved with the OSU victory. The 1% was that and the above scenario.

Yes the ND vs Syracuse game stole some viewers that wv and OSU's upset didn't contend with.

The USF/UCF game was something like a 40% increase over the same time slot and channel game last year.

In fact the only football property gaining viewers in Disney Land is the AAC. All the other viewership growth has been on Fox and a small tick up on NBC who is reportedly shown interested in the AAC.

Those numbers were from Sunday. See ESPN’s predictor story written 4 days ago.

How could a 2:30 Syr - ND game effect the viewership of the prime time UCF game? Wouldn’t that game actually compete with the OSU game? Your numbers and logic make no sense.

 

[TU4ever2]

Those numbers were from Sunday. See ESPN’s predictor story written 4 days ago.

How could a 2:30 Syr - ND game effect the viewership of the prime time UCF game? Wouldn’t that game actually compete with the OSU game? Your numbers and logic make no sense.

Actually it was the OU/KU game on Fox. Not the ND Syracuse game. My bad. It was closer than what it was suppose to be and UCF was blowing out Cincy.

Here is a link showing 538s ESPN predictions for playoffs It now is 3% for UCF to make it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Anything else I can clear up for you?

 

[lawpoke87]

Actually it was the OU/KU game on Fox. Not the ND Syracuse game. My bad. It was closer than what it was suppose to be and UCF was blowing out Cincy.

Here is a link showing 538s ESPN predictions for playoffs It now is 3% for UCF to make it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Anything else I can clear up for you?

Those are 538s percentages not ESPNs. They simply use ESPNs power index as one of their components. I specifically referred to ESPNs projections which were in fact updated on Sunday not two weeks ago.

Guess you can clear up the fact that there is no such thing as 538 ESPN projections. They are in fact two different projections based on two different methodologies.

 

[TU4ever2]

Those are 538s percentages not ESPNs. They simply use ESPNs power index as one of their components. I specifically referred to ESPNs projections which were in fact updated on Sunday not two weeks ago.

Guess you can clear up the fact that there is no such thing as 538 ESPN projections. They are in fact two different projections based on two different methodologies.

ESPN owns 538.

538 does the numbers for ESPN and is linked all over their page.

If you look at the very top of the link I gave it literally says 538 college football(as a graphic symbol) on ESPN.

There is no difference between the two.

 

[lawpoke87]

ESPN owns 538.

538 does the numbers for ESPN and is linked all over their page.

If you look at the very top of the link I gave it literally says 538 college football(as a graphic symbol) on ESPN.

There is no difference between the two.

Look at the methodology of the 538 predictions and ESPNs....they ARE DIFFERENT. The percentages for every team are different. ESPN had their latest percentages on their morning show today and matched those from Sunday. Here's the link to those from ESPN and as you can see they were made after Saturday's games. Hell...the story is rolling the highlights from the Mich - Ohio St game. How are these two weeks old? Michigan would not be at 2% two weeks ago. Hell....Michigan wouldn't have been at 2% last Friday. Those predictions obviously are post Saturday's games. Come on....surely you can't be this dense?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24523690/espn-college-football-playoff-predictor

 

[TU4ever2]

Look at the methodology of the 538 predictions and ESPNs....they ARE DIFFERENT. The percentages for every team are different. ESPN had their latest percentages on their morning show today and matched those from Sunday. Here's the link to those from ESPN and as you can see they were made after Saturday's games. Hell...the story is rolling the highlights from the Mich - Ohio St game. How are these two weeks old? Michigan would not be at 2% two weeks ago. Hell....Michigan wouldn't have been at 2% last Friday. Those predictions obviously are post Saturday's games. Come on....surely you can't be this dense?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24523690/espn-college-football-playoff-predictor

You realize that ESPN has many different ways of predicting things and rankings?

I pointed out one, you pointed out one. Now we know why you said 1% and I said it had gone up. Your number did not change. Mine did.

 

[TU_BLA]

The committee ranked Michigan ahead of UCF after getting drubbed by Ohio State. They think more of Georgia than they do Michigan and more of Bama than they do Ohio State. I see no way UCF jumps Michigan and Georgia based on a win against a non-ranked opponent. In fact, UCF hasn’t played a team who is currently ranked. Add that to the fact that Milton out...all of which they will consider. No chance a team gets in without playing a team which is ranked in the final poll.

The fact that Cincinnati is not ranked is pure crap. That team is definitely a top 25 team and should be treated as such.

The Milton argument is the only one that really holds water...sort of. And a parallel precedent would be dropping Cincinnati to a #2 seed back in 2000 because of Kenyon Martin's injury. And it's fine...but the noise for that committee and everyone else will happen IF UCF beats the crap out of Memphis with the backup on the field and then goes and thumps their NY6 opponent and has back to back 0 loss seasons.

 

[lawpoke87]

You realize that ESPN has many different ways of predicting things and rankings?

I pointed out one, you pointed out one. Now we know why you said 1% and I said it had gone up. Your number did not change. Mine did.

You said that 539 and ESPN is the same projection. ("There is no difference between the two") You said that the ESPN numbers I referred too were two weeks old. Both statements are false. Also....the 1% predictor from ESPN has not gone up. A separate projection from 538 has UCF at 3%. ESPN is the same today as it was on Sunday.

 

[lawpoke87]

The fact that Cincinnati is not ranked is pure crap. That team is definitely a top 25 team and should be treated as such.

The Milton argument is the only one that really holds water...sort of. And a parallel precedent would be dropping Cincinnati to a #2 seed back in 2000 because of Kenyon Martin's injury. And it's fine...but the noise for that committee and everyone else will happen IF UCF beats the crap out of Memphis with the backup on the field and then goes and thumps their NY6 opponent and has back to back 0 loss seasons.

I absolutely believe that UCF deserves a seat at the table. I also believe the committee won't give them a chair. It's hard to emphasize the importance of scheduling and playing top opponents (something the committee has done from it's inception) and then give UCF a spot with their schedule (does anyone believe the exclusion of Cincy in their top 25 was not not done on purpose?). I don't believe the committee will set that precedent. The fact that it didn't drop a two loss Michigan below them was insurance against having to bump UCF into the playoff imo. Far too many little hints for me to believe they would move UCF to #4. Of course, several upsets would have to take place on Saturday before any of this UCF talk is relevant.

I'm not sure it's in the best long term interest of the conference for UCF to reach the playoffs fwiw.

 

[TU_BLA]

I absolutely believe that UCF deserves a seat at the table. I also believe the committee won't give them a chair. It's hard to emphasize the importance of scheduling and playing top opponents (something the committee has done from it's inception) and then give UCF a spot with their schedule (does anyone believe the exclusion of Cincy in their top 25 was not not done on purpose?). I don't believe the committee will set that precedent. The fact that it didn't drop a two loss Michigan below them was insurance against having to bump UCF into the playoff imo. Far too many little hints for me to believe they would move UCF to #4. Of course, several upsets would have to take place on Saturday before any of this UCF talk is relevant.

I'm not sure it's in the best long term interest of the conference for UCF to reach the playoffs fwiw.

You're right. UCF reaching to playoffs would be an instant invite from the Big XII and they would probably tell UCF to pick who they're bringing to the dance...which would be USF. Want to see Houston get pissed?

It was also how telling that Texas is only #14 and Penn State was higher than that. Penn State sucks (granted, Texas is only marginally better). I honestly believe Northwestern has a chance to beat tOSU this weekend. They're well coached and disciplined.

The clamor will be to expand to 8 teams. There won't be any use for conference championship games once that happens or a drop of a regular season game back to 11 and a guarantee of one spot in that playoff to the highest ranked G5.

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

Cracks me up above where people think that a separate dining facility is a key to winning. GTFOH. That is the kind of crap why so many programs are just junk right now. That won't do crap.

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

You're right. UCF reaching to playoffs would be an instant invite from the Big XII and they would probably tell UCF to pick who they're bringing to the dance...which would be USF. Want to see Houston get pissed?

It was also how telling that Texas is only #14 and Penn State was higher than that. Penn State sucks (granted, Texas is only marginally better). I honestly believe Northwestern has a chance to beat tOSU this weekend. They're well coached and disciplined.

The clamor will be to expand to 8 teams. There won't be any use for conference championship games once that happens or a drop of a regular season game back to 11 and a guarantee of one spot in that playoff to the highest ranked G5.

UCF would be very out of place geographically.

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

UCF would be very out of place geographically.

Where was boise state's instant pac-12 invite?

 

[lawpoke87]

UCF would be very out of place geographically.

As was West Virginia. The Big12 will add at least two teams when the next round of expansion occurs...if they in fact do add to the conference. Florida would make the most sense if they do decide to expand imo. I suspect the decision will be based on TV revenue considerations btw.

 

[TU_BLA]

Where was boise state's instant pac-12 invite?

They weren't close to winning a national championship. If UCF were to get included in the playoff, they would at least have a shot to play for one on the field.

 

[mcane]

I also think a UCF playoff berth would be the beginning of the end of the AAC. Two NY day wins may also harm the AAC. Can't win for losing.

UCF would be more attractive to the ACC since FSU is down.

I still think that in the next go-round both the Pac 12 and SEC make a play for OU and UT. But I can sincerely hope there is stability. I've never thought TU would survive another shakeout and would end up with the AAC "left behind" in the new AAC (old CUSA). I guarantee you Cinncy, U Conn, Temple et al. would be glad to drop TU, SMU and Tulane in a heartbeat.

 

[TU4ever2]

The AAC has three ny6 wins already and is looking at four or three and a play off win.

Lawpoke keep digging bro. ESPN has a power ranking too which is completely different than the FPI, and twelve other numbers they use. The link I gave comes with an ESPN endorsement at the very top.

You pulled one number out of your @** lil pistol. Not a word when you got proven wrong when game day showed up on an AAC campus, after you praised it as the end all be all.

The big xii won't be adding two. The big xii won't even exist after the next alignment. Big brother OU and your daddy Texas are bailing on Stillwater, Lubbock, Ames, and Manhattan Kansas.

 

[lawpoke87]

I sent you the damn espn link to the numbers I quoted. You incorrectly argued that ESPN’s projections (which you claimed were two weeks old) were the same as 538s. I also never said a word regarding espn not showing up to UCF for game day. Temple has also hosted along with multiple MAC schools, MWC, Ivy League, D2, service academies, etc.

I first thought you were dense. I’m now convinced you’re just not smart. Do you have a TU degree?

 

[Gmoney4WW]

I sent you the damn espn link to the numbers I quoted. You incorrectly argued that ESPN’s projections (which you claimed were two weeks old) were the same as 538s. I also never said a word regarding espn not showing up to UCF for game day. Temple has also hosted along with multiple MAC schools, MWC, Ivy League, D2, service academies, etc.

I first thought you were dense. I’m now convinced you’re just not smart. Do you have a TU degree?

Why argue with him? Not worth the time. If u were trolling him, that's one thing.

 

[TU4ever2]

Why argue with him? Not worth the time. If u were trolling him, that's one thing.

Shouldn't you be in the other thread agreeing with Austin Chadwick's bad information about other conference teams, while referring to his position as a high school beat writer?

Come along lil bank, surely someone will come up with a point you can jump in on.

 

[TU4ever2]

I sent you the damn espn link to the numbers I quoted. You incorrectly argued that ESPN’s projections (which you claimed were two weeks old) were the same as 538s. I also never said a word regarding espn not showing up to UCF for game day. Temple has also hosted along with multiple MAC schools, MWC, Ivy League, D2, service academies, etc.

I first thought you were dense. I’m now convinced you’re just not smart. Do you have a TU degree?

Lol, I'm dense?

ESPN puts out multiple numbers.

538 is ESPN.

I already explained this and said why we have different numbers. You just desperately want to be right.

"As far as TV coverage the biggest college show going is game day"

Is a direct quote from our TV exposure argument. Your argument moved from whether the AAC gets national games, then to if we get primetime, and then that we don't coverage because game day doesn't bring us up.

Game day shows up to Orlando and law poke goes strangely quiet.

You are definitely a OSU fan. Keep that bias, it's serving you well.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Love how the only credit he gives Austin Chadwick, is as a high school beat writer.