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2024 Election prediction/discussion

I'll take Ben Bernanke's word for it over Mr. Bianchi's no offense to him...
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Olivier J. Blanchard and Ben S. Bernanke study the historical comovement of wages, prices, and inflation expectations in an effort to measure the relative contributions of the sources of the recent US inflation shock. They estimate the relationships between price inflation, wage inflation, commodity price shocks, shortages, and labor market tightness over the period from 1990 to the start of the pandemic, and then use their estimates to simulate the inflationary effects of the various shocks that buffeted the US economy from the beginning of 2020 to early 2023.
I listed the opinions of no fewer than 7 economist. I take anything a former chairman of the Fed says regarding a decision backed by the Fed with skepticism. I also know enough to realize injected a trillion dollars into an economy experiencing labor and material shortages creates inflationary pressure. I said as much when it was done and turned out to be correct. Those that claimed inflation was transitory need to take a lap here.
 
Can I key in on a concept? Had the Jan 6th insurrectionists intervened and Congressmen had actually been trapped in congress, there might have been a far different outcome. Recall that they were trying to obstruct the congressional certification procedure. If they succeed in that, maybe by capturing Pence, it could have been a different outcome.
lol. Zero chance.
 
My only fear is that Trump will break down those checks with both the house and Senate going Republican. He will be given carte blanche on appointments and attempt to change the civil servants hirings and firings, that he has so far been forbade from touching.
Exactly. The system worked last time but as we have seen in places like Turkey, if you insert your people into the courts, civil service, and military, de facto you end up with a coup of the system. This is my worry. And hearing smart folks like Chris not being too worried just concerns me more!
 
Exactly. The system worked last time but as we have seen in places like Turkey, if you insert your people into the courts, civil service, and military, de facto you end up with a coup of the system. This is my worry. And hearing smart folks like Chris not being too worried just concerns me more!
Things would have to change a lot to have the likes of the FBI and top military brass even support Trump in every day life much less a coup of the government.
 
Things would have to change a lot to have the likes of the FBI and top military brass even support Trump in every day life much less a coup of the government.
Yes, but who ever imagined a mob attacking the capitol to overturn an election. And the President watching silently for hours. Nothing is unimaginable after that IMO.
 
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Yes, but who ever imagined a mob attacking the capitol to overturn an election. And the President watching silently for hours. Nothing is unimaginable after that IMO.
I would hope (and believe) the FBI and military leaders know exactly who Trump is. Every action from those two organizations in the past gives me confidence of this belief.
 
Of course it bothers me. Don’t forget in the months leading up to the war I was the lone voice urging the U.S. to provide Ukraine with the military assets necessary to defend against the invasion. I knew once Russian acquired that territory it was never being returned. Ukraine loses a war of attrition. Ukraine will be in a worse position two years from now than today from which to negotiate. If you have a better solution then I’m all ears
Of course it bothers me. Don’t forget in the months leading up to the war I was the lone voice urging the U.S. to provide Ukraine with the military assets necessary to defend against the invasion. I knew once Russian acquired that territory it was never being returned. Ukraine loses a war of attrition. Ukraine will be in a worse position two years from now than today from which to negotiate. If you have a better solution then I’m all ears
We have crossed so many supposed red lines by Putin. The Russians are so full of junk in their supposed red lines. The have no response.

Ukraine has held off the Russians with the most part with weak help. They lost lots of ground while the republicans doddled around and bent over to lord Donald.

The Europeans have woken up that we are propably not in on the Future. America is showing signs of abandoning the world stage under Trump and the rest of the world knows it.

If we don't have the stomach for a fight with no American lives on the line against Putin, Xi knows we have no stomach for a fight over Taiwan. None. Zero. We have zero credibility.

Trump doesn't care about the outcome for Ukrainians, europe, nato or the European Union. He thinks it is some kind of zero sum game with the Americans not being able to play with the Russians. He would prefer to be able for himself to have access to Moscow hotel investments that give the Ukrainians freedom or what that could mean for American investments and what it represents for future. It is some sick stuff.
 
Good post. I would only add that the 25th amendment is the product of the Cold War. A time when we were hyper focused on national unity and all in agreement that the President should be hyper vigilant every second of his term on the defense of the country.

We appear to have lapsed into a malaise where it really isn’t important to project strength and unity from the Oval Office. America, including our leaders in Congress, seems quite comfortable not knowing who the hell is in charge as long as Social Security checks get mailed.

So since the 25th Amendment requires the Cabinet to initiate removal, and they will all potentially lose their jobs if they do, as will around 3,000 of their subordinates who will remain in politics and hate them for the rest of their careers, it appears going forward that unless a President is frequently totally incapacitated, but only temporarily, as Ike was, the 25th is a dormant clause now. Which is alarming.

Because it begs the question of whether Biden was totally incapacitated at times as Wilson was, and we never knew it.

I’m very curious to see if the dam ever breaks and we get a tell all book alleging the extent of his dementia and when it became obvious. It was a federal crime to hide it if it was hidden. I suspect we will have to wait until the statute of limitations runs before we know what really went on.

But as most people who have gone through this with loved ones know, the bottom can fall out in days or weeks for some folks, not slow decline over years.

Which might be more troubling, if the plan in advance was to elect him then have him resign if the bottom truly did fall out after it was too late to change.

I was watching an ex Obama advisor raging on Thursday that Biden was the worst President in history. His only goal was to stop Donald Trump. And Biden claimed he was the only one who could do it. And ultimately he was the cause of Trump’s return. He had one job and let his ego get in the way was the argument. Not sure I agree with that, but I found the melt entertaining.
Obama caused trump's return? Interesting take...
 
I'm not a Trump fan at all, but I did live through is first presidency. Democracy didn't end. So I guess that's what I'm basing it on.
Lmao....
Of course it was concerning. I didn't like it, but our legal system does allow a process of challenging election results, and once his legal team exhausted those avenues, it was pretty much done. After that, he wasn't claiming he was still president or that Biden wasn't the president. And I don't like that he was still mentioning four years later that he thinks it was stolen from him, but everyone's entitled to their opinion I guess. I wish he'd keep that opinion to himself.

The January 6th riot was foolish and ridiculous, but I was never concerned that the group of people involved was somehow going to overthrow the government.

To answer your question. No, I don't personally fear that democracy in our country is at risk. I just don't see a basis for it, regardless of who won the election. Our Constitution instituted the proper checks and balances to keep any one person or one branch of government to be too powerful.
the ridiculous part is it wasn't just about j6. That was a culmination of failed and ongoing attempts to get people inside of states to overturn the votes. That is why there are cases in GA still and even now AZ.

J6 was the time it finally became evident of the stupidity of him. Fox and Elon and the rest of the ecosystem excuse machine wanted to compare it the Black Lives Matter but there is no comparison. Trump caused it. . It is that simple. They don't show up or push it if he just accepts the election and doesn't call a mob to DC.

This is water under the bridge now.

Does Kamala gets to call a mob to DC? Do they get to have it out with the capitol police ? Is this a new thing every four years that is cool for the loser on the other side? Or is Trump just the unique one for this ?

The guys on his side were openly saying they were contesting the election if he lost and pull the same :crap:.

I am not really sure what you are looking for in terms of threat. This is how this kind of stuff sort of gets started. But whatever.
 
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We have crossed so many supposed red lines by Putin. The Russians are so full of junk in their supposed red lines. The have no response.

Ukraine has held off the Russians with the most part with weak help. They lost lots of ground while the republicans doddled around and bent over to lord Donald.

The Europeans have woken up that we are propably not in on the Future. America is showing signs of abandoning the world stage under Trump and the rest of the world knows it.

If we don't have the stomach for a fight with no American lives on the line against Putin, Xi knows we have no stomach for a fight over Taiwan. None. Zero. We have zero credibility.

Trump doesn't care about the outcome for Ukrainians, europe, nato or the European Union. He thinks it is some kind of zero sum game with the Americans not being able to play with the Russians. He would prefer to be able for himself to have access to Moscow hotel investments that give the Ukrainians freedom or what that could mean for American investments and what it represents for future. It is some sick stuff.
Woah….Ukraine lost that territory because the Biden Admin and NATO refused to give them the military assets they needed to thwart the Russian invasion. Once the Russians controlled that territory there was no hope of dislodging them without NATO boots on the ground and planes in the air. That is the reality. Russia wins a war of attrition. Russia will be in a better negotiating position in two years than they are now. In the meanwhile, thousands of Ukrainians will continue to lose their lives. They are running out of people to fight. As I’ve said beginning six months prior to the war…..either take actions to win this conflict or make peace. We have chosen neither while watching tens of thousands die and Ukraine destroyed. At the end of the day we were cowards not to confront Putin as he prepared for war. We have never had a strategy to win. I pray changes are coming.
 
lol. I can’t remember a bigger economic miscalculation than not recognizing the inflationary pressures and then attempting to dismiss them as transitory. Injecting amother trillion dollars into a system already experiencing labor and material shortages was brilliant. When a dumb real estate attorney can see it but the leaders of our country can’t we have a serious problem with those running our economic policy. At least Yellen finally admitted the error I suppose.

Foreign policy under Biden was a disaster as well but that’s a much longer discussion. Explains his 40% approval rating when it comes to foreign policy I suppose.
You're right ? We should have let Israel completely level Ramala and take the West Bank. It is some pretty sick :crap: what has taken place there. Bibi has no plan.
 
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You're right ? We should have let Israel completely level Ramala and take the West Bank. It is some pretty sick :crap: what has taken place there. Bibi has no plan.
I have many, many relatives still living in Lebanon. They don't like Hezbollah. They don't like what Israel is doing to their country. I don't know why Israeli lives appear to have more value than my relatives lives. the Lebanese are more than ready for a settlement but Israel just wants to kill and destroy.

Side note. One of Trump's advisors was born in Lebanon and his son married Tiffany Trump. He is actually a pal of Hezbollah and Assad's top "Christian" buddy named Suleiman Franjieh. So Trump is linked to Hezbollah too! https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/m...re-behind-trumps-arab-american-votes-18229643
 
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The exit polling I saw yesterday morning showed 52% of white females voted for Trump to 48% for Harris. That may have changed since...I haven't looked.
“I saw it somewhere at some point and haven’t bothered to look” should be the tagline of this board and explains so much.
 
The funny thing is, if the situation were reversed, and it was a Democrat supporting Putin, and the Republicans wanting to help fight Russia and want to fully support Netanyahu's actions, I have a feeling some people would support the other side. Reagan is rolling over in his grave.
 
And if Obama had sent over troops to stop Putin from taking Crimea, it might have turned into WWIII. Same with Biden sending over troops. You don't have a clue what China/Iran/N Korea's reaction to that would have been. That's why neither Obama or Biden was quick to send over troops. Then we might be having arguments over the funding of a long drawn out battle, and loss of lives. It's not like these moves had no consequences.
 
Does Kamala gets to call a mob to DC? Do they get to have it out with the capitol police ?
Nobody gets to call a mob to DC. Trump told his supporters to fight, just like Kamala did in her concession speech. In fact, she used the word fight numerous times in her concession speech and said the fight isn't over. Does that mean she is calling her supporters to go to DC and try to overturn the results? No, absolutely not. Just like Trump wasn't when he said it. I've already condemned what happened on January 6. It should have never happened.

I am not really sure what you are looking for in terms of threat.
I guess an actual, legitimate threat from Trump, to start. As I said, I lived through four years of Trump, and Democracy didn't end. I don't expect it to end this time either.
 
Nobody gets to call a mob to DC. Trump told his supporters to fight, just like Kamala did in her concession speech. In fact, she used the word fight numerous times in her concession speech and said the fight isn't over. Does that mean she is calling her supporters to go to DC and try to overturn the results? No, absolutely not. Just like Trump wasn't when he said it. I've already condemned what happened on January 6. It should have never happened.


I guess an actual, legitimate threat from Trump, to start. As I said, I lived through four years of Trump, and Democracy didn't end. I don't expect it to end this time either.
You will never see reason. Kamala wasn’t speaking to an assembled mob who she had told for a month the election had been stolen from them. Nor did she mention marching on the Capitol. Nor was her speech made on a day when the constitutionally mandated process of congressional certification was happening. Nor did she try and bring in her own fake electors. Nor did she insult her own political partner telling the crowd to change his mind. Nor did she make her speech in front of violent thugs like the Proud Boys…
 
Woah….Ukraine lost that territory because the Biden Admin and NATO refused to give them the military assets they needed to thwart the Russian invasion. Once the Russians controlled that territory there was no hope of dislodging them without NATO boots on the ground and planes in the air. That is the reality. Russia wins a war of attrition. Russia will be in a better negotiating position in two years than they are now. In the meanwhile, thousands of Ukrainians will continue to lose their lives. They are running out of people to fight. As I’ve said beginning six months prior to the war…..either take actions to win this conflict or make peace. We have chosen neither while watching tens of thousands die and Ukraine destroyed. At the end of the day we were cowards not to confront Putin as he prepared for war. We have never had a strategy to win. I pray changes are coming.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahajahajaj dumb.
 
You will never see reason. Kamala wasn’t speaking to an assembled mob who she had told for a month the election had been stolen from them. Nor did she mention marching on the Capitol. Nor was her speech made on a day when the constitutionally mandated process of congressional certification was happening. Nor did she try and bring in her own fake electors. Nor did she insult her own political partner telling the crowd to change his mind. Nor did she make her speech in front of violent thugs like the Proud Boys…
I see reason just fine. Frame it however you like, but my point stands. The last two losing candidates talked about "fighting" in their speeches after the election. Both speeches were in front of thousands. Neither were calling for the government to be overthrown. You are asking me to suspend logic and reason to say that it's okay for one side to say it, but wrong for the other side to say it. I don't apply rules that way.
 
Nobody gets to call a mob to DC. Trump told his supporters to fight, just like Kamala did in her concession speech. In fact, she used the word fight numerous times in her concession speech and said the fight isn't over. Does that mean she is calling her supporters to go to DC and try to overturn the results? No, absolutely not. Just like Trump wasn't when he said it. I've already condemned what happened on January 6. It should have never happened.
There is the issue of knowing what the Proud Boys & Oath Keepers were planning & wanted to do. Trump had operatives on his campaign staff that were in communication with the two groups on a regular basis.(Flynn & Stone) He knew up front, that it wouldn't take much to spark the crowd. Sanders had no such foreknowledge of groups in the people she was speaking to, despite the somewhat false rumors about Antifa that were always floated around by conservative media.
 
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There is the issue of knowing what the Proud Boys & Oath Keepers were planning & wanted to do. Trump had operatives on his campaign staff that were in communication with the two groups on a regular basis.(Flynn & Stone) He knew up front, that it wouldn't take much to spark the crowd. Sanders had no such foreknowledge of groups in the people she was speaking to, despite the somewhat false rumors about Antifa that were always floated around by conservative media.
The Jan 6 hearings certainly showed that far-right groups were heavily involved in the riot, and they felt emboldened by things Trump said. I have no idea what far-left groups were at or listening to Harris' speech, and I have no idea what they are planning to do. Regardless, I go back to what I originally said. It can't be okay for one side to talk that way and wrong for the other.
 
All I could do now is continue to repeat myself. I like to learn from the past not live in it.

So now I hope for the best with a watchful eye.
 
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Why? Trump didn’t do anything until he knew that his coup had failed.
If you can’t understand why a several hundred unarmed people without any assistance from the police, FBI, CIA or military can’t overthrow the U.S. government then I can’t help you here. This might be the stupidest argument yet.
 
If you can’t understand why a several hundred unarmed people without any assistance from the police, FBI, CIA or military can’t overthrow the U.S. government then I can’t help you here. This might be the stupidest argument yet.
Even though they would not be able to overthrow the government, they did have the capability to capture members of congress, and hold them hostage, if they hadn't mostly left in the time the rioters were held at bay outside. And there were a few that had weapons. Regardless, this was a weak disorganized and poorly looking response from our government. And the reason it appeared that way was because of Trump's lack of action. Also he willfully didn't act.

This was not a good look as you often point out about other events. This look could embolden others to make better plans and try it again, whether it was other citizens that were unhappy or a foreign government seeing this as a window to exploit. I just don't understand how republicans can excuse this. I will just about guarantee you that if this was a Democrat President who pulled this, there would be a united chorus coming out of the Republican peanut gallery of voters and politicians. And there would be Democrat defectors who were speaking out against it, the same as there are Republican defectors now.

We really don't ever want to be put in this situation, where our congressman are in fear for their safety. We want to be a strong nation that never had that happen, and certainly not in our capital. Until Jan 6, we were that nation.
 
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Even though they would not be able to overthrow the government, they did have the capability to capture members of congress, if they hadn't mostly left in the time the rioters were held at bay outside. And there were a few that had weapons. Regardless, this was a weak disorganized and poorly looking response from our government. And the reason it appeared that way was because of Trump's lack of action. Also he willfully didn't act.

This was not a good look as you often point out about other events. This look could embolden others to make better plans and try it again, whether it was other citizens that were unhappy or a foreign government seeing this as a window to exploit. I just don't understand how republicans can excuse this. I will just about guarantee you that if this was a Democrat President who pulled this, there would be a united chorus coming out of the Republican peanut gallery of voters and politicians. And there would be Democrat defectors who were speaking out against it, the same as there are Republican defectors now.
Agree 100% and don't understand how anyone can see it otherwise.
 
My only fear is that Trump will break down those checks with both the house and Senate going Republican. He will be given carte blanche on appointments and attempt to change the civil servants hirings and firings, that he has so far been forbade from touching.
Trump understands how the government works this time around and will be out for vengeance. He says as much. Before he kind of held back.

there are some extreme wackadoos being tossed out for AG like Mike Davis. I have a hard time he gets through confirmation but you don't know.

On the flip side, there are some people that I have hard time believing that won't be supportive of Ukraine like Pompeo or Rubio being tossed for defense. I guess pompeo is out though.
And if Obama had sent over troops to stop Putin from taking Crimea, it might have turned into WWIII. Same with Biden sending over troops. You don't have a clue what China/Iran/N Korea's reaction to that would have been. That's why neither Obama or Biden was quick to send over troops. Then we might be having arguments over the funding of a long drawn out battle, and loss of lives. It's not like these moves had no consequences.
it's So weird to me that people think the Chinese have some crazy interest in Ukraine.

Russia has always been weary of the Chinese in eastern Russia and hell they have fought multiple wars. An the treaty of Peking to this day has been viewed as an absolute disgrace for China.
I see reason just fine. Frame it however you like, but my point stands. The last two losing candidates talked about "fighting" in their speeches after the election. Both speeches were in front of thousands. Neither were calling for the government to be overthrown. You are asking me to suspend logic and reason to say that it's okay for one side to say it, but wrong for the other side to say it. I don't apply rules that way.
 
If you can’t understand why a several hundred unarmed people without any assistance from the police, FBI, CIA or military can’t overthrow the U.S. government then I can’t help you here. This might be the stupidest argument yet.
I have said this ad naseum and mentioned this many times on this board. J6 was the culmination of his BS. Jeff Clark and plenty of his legal team were working to get legislators to overturn the vote in each state.

Chris's third grade level of analysis of the use of the word fight is where we are today. The continual lack of nuance is truly disappointing.
 
it's So weird to me that people think the Chinese have some crazy interest in Ukraine.

Russia has always been weary of the Chinese in eastern Russia and hell they have fought multiple wars. An the treaty of Peking to this day has been viewed as an absolute disgrace for China.
I don't think the Chinese has an interest in Ukraine or the Russians have an interest in Taiwan. But I think that despite Russia/Putin's wariness (And it does come down to Putin. Russia isn't wary of anything if Putin isn't wary. His rule is iron. We know that because we saw it seriously threatened for the first time, and now Prigozhin is dead.)

Putin's actions say that he would trust China in a joint war against the West. If we attacked either of their soil, I believe both would think it of necessity to help each other to defend themselves. Because if we were successful in defeating one of them, then they wouldn't have that ally in the future. The concept is power in numbers, and taking advantage of it, before it disappears. To defend each other is to also give each other more ability to take actions that the US/West might have a problem with.(Ukraine/Taiwan) You help me with this task, and I'll back you up with yours.
 
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