2024 Election prediction/discussion
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
We were. As I told you when it was happening, it was largely a combination of emerging supply chains from Covid and energy markets in crisis trying to rebalance after half the world boycotted Russian oil.
You wanted to blame it on stimulus spending which was not the fundamental cause. (If it was, the rest of the world including China wouldn’t have been feeling it)
lol. I can’t remember a bigger economic miscalculation than not recognizing the inflationary pressures and then attempting to dismiss them as transitory. Injecting amother trillion dollars into a system already experiencing labor and material shortages was brilliant. When a dumb real estate attorney can see it but the leaders of our country can’t we have a serious problem with those running our economic policy. At least Yellen finally admitted the error I suppose.
Foreign policy under Biden was a disaster as well but that’s a much longer discussion. Explains his 40% approval rating when it comes to foreign policy I suppose.
They knew exactly what they were doing. They had Congressional leaders and a donor apparatus to appease regardless of the consequences.
Have to agree. If I knew the situation they surely did as well. Aston was a sheep but most of us could recognize the inflationary pressures and that describing inflation as transitory was insulting to anyone who had a basic understanding of economics. Those labor and material shortages combined with a huge injection of capital into the system and existing inflationary pressures abroad were never going to be a short term deal
You are just wrong. If that was the case we would still be seeing effects as stimulus has continued in the form or the IRA and CHIPS acts.
Anyone ignorant enough to not believe a sudden spike in oil and natural gas prices doesn’t affect everything else in the economy is just dumb. It’s also why Europe saw worse price increases than we did, because they control far less of their own energy supply.
I don’t care about approval ratings when more than half of the electorate are completely ignorant
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There’s no doubt the global inflationary pressures contributed to our record inflation. There’s also no doubt the Biden Admin was completely wrong when it came to believing inflation was transitory and injecting another $1T into the system when MOST of us saw the writing on the wall. Im with Huffy on this one. I can’t imagine anyone with a basic understanding of economics not realizing the situation at the time. I certainly saw it coming. No chance the Biden Admin was that incompetent.
She says that having fully endorsed supporting Kamala, as far as I could see. I'm sure she wanted it to happen earlier, but we don't really know if she wanted to have a primary.
Sounded like some Monday morning quarterbacking to me.
This fascinates me. IMO, as I mentioned before, I felt like most of that messaging was just fearmongering that fell on deaf ears. This is one person's opinion, and I know @drboobay disagrees, and I appreciate his point of view. I watched the RNC and DNC, and then rallies on both sides, plus many interviews of both sides. I found it odd that the Harris/Walz campaign wasn't talking more about the issues -- what they feel is right and why they feel Trump is wrong. It was mostly that Trump was a "threat do Democracy," coupled with things like Obama pushing the 'very fine people' hoax and Oprah saying if Trump was elected it could be the last election we ever vote in. The list goes on, and it was a lot of non-sensical things. I just didn't understand that strategy.
The Covid stimulus contributed little to inflation. If you want to complain about it hitting the debt, fine, but I fundamentally have no evidence that it was the leading cause of inflation.
The supreme leader was too busy talking about completely sensical things like Haitians eating cats. Damn those cat eating Hatians!
He was busy talking about sensical things like "drill baby drill" (nevermind the fact that the US is now producing and exporting more oil and gas than it ever has before)
He was busy talking about the need for more parental rights, to teach your child whatever nonsense you feel like they should know. (Makes it easier for the children to believe him and the other car salesmen that follow)
He pledged to hand the idea of government to a person who absolutely ruined one of the largest social media websites, and who has built garbage cars, behind schedule and for a higher price than promised.
You call it fear mongering, because you still think it won't happen.... until it does, and you just handed him back the keys to test fate despite repeated warnings.
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There were Dem advisors and pollsters who were telling her she need to talk about the issues more and less about how Trump was going to destroy the human race. She ignored them and chose the end of mankind argument. In the end it failed. James Carville is a bit of a nut but also a fairly savy political advisor. He was screaming “talk about the economy, immigration, war”. She was the same candidate who failed miserably in 2020. Ironically, the majority of voters who listed “Threat to Democracy” as their #1 issue backed Trump.
Just because Trump is putting out BS doesn't preclude you(sanders) from including a little non BS along with your BS.
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Lots of papers on the subject
The highest estimate — that roughly half or about four percentage points of the recent increase in annual inflation can be attributed to the rescue plan — comes from Francesco Bianchi of Johns Hopkins University, who presented findings from a paper he co-authored at the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
Four economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in March, after comparing the U.S. experience to that of other advanced economies, said the combined effects of all fiscal measures in 2020 and 2021 had pushed inflation higher, with the effect peaking late last year after the rescue plan took hold at about three percentage points. And Laurence Ball of Johns Hopkins, along with Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra of the International Monetary Fund, arrived at a similar figure for the rescue plan alone in a paper presented at a Brookings Institution conference in early September.
To be fair there’s a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on with the entire campaign. Not unusual for the losing side.
Let's get a recap of Trump's sensical contributions to our political discourse:
- Judicial arguments before the supreme court that he believes he should be above the law
- Constant disparaging of anyone in an intelligence agency or the justice system
- Flip flopping on criminal charges for politicians.... remember his arguments about "Crooked Hillary"?
- His behavior surrounding hoaxes, lies, and false achievements
- False Election Conspiracies & Insurrections
- Obama's birth certificate,
- Ivermectin & Hydroxycloroquine
- Draining the swamp (making it swampier - how many of his aides went to jail?)
- Mexico will pay for a wall they never paid for.
- Hurricanes being controlled by the Government?
- Stating he wasn't close with Epstein after 2000.
- Claiming media bias... thus creating his own extremely biased media companies
- His own collegiate academic performance (as attested by everyone that knew him in college including teachers)
- The size of his inaugural crowds
- Illegal voters in the 2016 elections (what happened to them? Why does he not care anymore)
- Denial of Russian election interference, that was later proven by his own intelligence agencies.
- Being found by a court to have raped a woman.
- Being convicted by a jury of falsifying business records in furtherance of a crime.
- Cheating on his wives repeatedly
- False claims during his previous presidency about 5-6% GDP growth that he would enable.
- Claiming he would erase the national debt in 8 years. (He just increased it further with his Tax Cuts)
- Arguing that Obama's admin conspired to surveil his campaign. (They were later proved to have not done so)
- Insinuating Joe Scarborough a murderer.... which was found to not be true after also having previously been found to not be true.
- Claiming he had done more for Black Americans than any other president.
- His quid pro quo dealmaking on weapons that were of dire need to Zelensky who was later attacked by Trump's buddy.
- His conspiracy theory that Ilhan Omar married her brother, committed immigration fraud, and said "death to Israel"
- His disparaging of war heroes and veterans.
- His lies of omission blaming Biden in totality for the Afghan withdrawal, failing to mention his administration was heavily involved in the leadup.
- His conspiracies about mail in voting.
- His claims that Biden wanted to destroy patient protections for pre-existing condition coverage.
- His treatment of his own handpicked vice president.
- His treatment of any Republican who strayed from his orbit.
- His mistreatment of classified materials and boasting about them to guests at his hotel.
- His misstatements about the age of our air force's fleet of planes and their age under his administration.
- His vast exaggeration of the size of illegal immigration queues. (10 million vs 3 million)
- His denial of science in general and climate change in particular.
- His unproveable, and frankly unbelievable, claim that no one would have attacked Israel or Ukraine if he had been president.
- His claims that democratic states are executing babies after birth.
- His claims that the majority of America wanted states rights to determine abortion.
- His constant claims of larger crowd attendances than actually existed.
- His campaign shafting municipalities from payments.
- Saying he cares about the Bible (then not knowing a single verse).
- Saying he knows literally anything about Tariffs.
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First of all, I was talking about Harris' campaign, not Trumps. I call it fearmongering because that is how it came across to me...so that's my opinion. I had my 20-year old liberal daughter asking about all the stuff filling her "for you" social media pages about how she was going to lose her rights, which is absolutely insane, IMO.
I'm not a Trump fan at all, but I did live through is first presidency. Democracy didn't end. So I guess that's what I'm basing it on.
…and yet he beats the crap out of the Dem nominee 312-226. Wins the popular vote. Wins the Senate. Wins the House. Dems must have nominated one awful candidate and/or ran one awful campaign.
I think you quoted the wrong post, as mine is about Harris' campaign strategy.
Suppose I’m with most Americans in that I’m not overly concerned about democracy ending. Now if Trump starts censoring or silencing.dissenting speech or enacting unconstitutional mandates I might change my mind. Until then this is where I am. Hopefully I’m correct. I never viewed a bunch of unarmed nut jobs as a threat to overthrow our democracy. Just not how our democracy will end. Again….leaders who actively silence those who oppose them pose a far greater risk based on history. Let’s revisit in a few years
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Chris were you not troubled by Trump's election denialism and nanchalant-at-best reaction to the January 6th riots? How does that not stoke fear that our democracy is at risk?
The only mitigating factor I can come up with is that our institutions did stand despite the onslaught. But would they again if he can reshape courts and the civil service to his liking?
Trump fear mongered and Kamala fear mongered. Kamala lost, so that's why we are focusing on her fear mongering. Trump will cause more fear mongering, some justified, and some not. That's just reality. It plays a part in why she lost, but so does her having to live under the pretense that she was an incumbent. Incumbents have to deal with their failures more than those who aren't incumbents. She should have focused on her future policies more, but you don't know that for sure, until you lose. All in all, it was a popularity contest. That's pretty bad, when you lose a popularity contest to DJT.
She did not fear monger. She just reminded people of the demonstrated risks of Trump.
I agree that her policy ideas were light.
Just because your fear mongering is justified doesn't make it not fear mongering.
Of course it was concerning. I didn't like it, but our legal system does allow a process of challenging election results, and once his legal team exhausted those avenues, it was pretty much done. After that, he wasn't claiming he was still president or that Biden wasn't the president. And I don't like that he was still mentioning four years later that he thinks it was stolen from him, but everyone's entitled to their opinion I guess. I wish he'd keep that opinion to himself.
The January 6th riot was foolish and ridiculous, but I was never concerned that the group of people involved was somehow going to overthrow the government.
To answer your question. No, I don't personally fear that democracy in our country is at risk. I just don't see a basis for it, regardless of who won the election. Our Constitution instituted the proper checks and balances to keep any one person or one branch of government to be too powerful.
I'll take Ben Bernanke's word for it over Mr. Bianchi's no offense to him...
Olivier J. Blanchard and Ben S. Bernanke study the historical comovement of wages, prices, and inflation expectations in an effort to measure the relative contributions of the sources of the recent US inflation shock. They estimate the relationships between price inflation, wage inflation, commodity price shocks, shortages, and labor market tightness over the period from 1990 to the start of the pandemic, and then use their estimates to simulate the inflationary effects of the various shocks that buffeted the US economy from the beginning of 2020 to early 2023.
Can I key in on a concept? Had the Jan 6th insurrectionists intervened and Congressmen had actually been trapped in congress, there might have been a far different outcome. Recall that they were trying to obstruct the congressional certification procedure. If they succeed in that, maybe by capturing Pence, it could have been a different outcome.
My only fear is that Trump will break down those checks with both the house and Senate going Republican. He will be given carte blanche on appointments and attempt to change the civil servants hirings and firings, that he has so far been forbade from touching.
Your daughter already lost her rights. Now its just further written in stone.
What rights did she lose, exactly? What has changed since November 4, 2024?
I listed the opinions of no fewer than 7 economist. I take anything a former chairman of the Fed says regarding a decision backed by the Fed with skepticism. I also know enough to realize injected a trillion dollars into an economy experiencing labor and material shortages creates inflationary pressure. I said as much when it was done and turned out to be correct. Those that claimed inflation was transitory need to take a lap here.I'll take Ben Bernanke's word for it over Mr. Bianchi's no offense to him...
Olivier J. Blanchard and Ben S. Bernanke study the historical comovement of wages, prices, and inflation expectations in an effort to measure the relative contributions of the sources of the recent US inflation shock. They estimate the relationships between price inflation, wage inflation, commodity price shocks, shortages, and labor market tightness over the period from 1990 to the start of the pandemic, and then use their estimates to simulate the inflationary effects of the various shocks that buffeted the US economy from the beginning of 2020 to early 2023.
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