Tulsa +18 @ Houston
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
We run the same offense, so we might know what to expect a bit more on defense, plus I think our defense is set up better to attack this offense. Problem is they have better players running it. Their WR's are really, really good.
We'll be OK. I don't think we'll get run out of the stadium, but not sure we can score enough to make it a good game to watch.
Our DBs should match up OK with their WRs. Can we get enough pressure on the QB AND keep him in the pocket.
Sagarin says take the under, using his various methods none cross 18 points:
15.49 15.21 16.80 17.50
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Sagarin ranks Tulsa about where all the other models do. 80 - 122 range, but ~100 is where most have Tulsa.
He is a little higher on Houston than most, with Houston at #45, the range is 23 - 79, but it looks like most have Houston around #50.
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
The Cougs are #1 in the nation for total offense, with most of that coming through the air. My impression is that Tulsa does not have a solid pass defense, but the stats indicate our run and pass defense is about equal (#51 overall, 356 yards per game) - and that we usually hold opponents below their average:
Houston: 608 yards per game
Temple: 357 (300 against Tulsa)
Arkansas State: 471 (402)
Texas: 396 (478)
Central Arkansas: 388 (247)
https://static.tulsahurricane.com/custompages/stats/football/2018/teamstat.htm
While Houston's offensive probably is good and their opponent defenses do suffer a hit to their average, we may be the toughest defense they have played. Opponents defensive rank:
Rice: #115 (opponents have 484 yards per game average)
Arizona: #98 (418)
Texas Tech: #107 (447)
Texas Southern: FCS #110 (492)
Tulsa: #51, 356 yards per game before Houston
http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div
Then again, if they put up 600+ yards, our defensive average will tumble to that 400+ average and rank near 100+ also. If we remove the Houston game, those opponents don't look too dissimilar to Tulsa.
Other factors:
We had a week off. They had a week off. Game in Houston. We have not played the same team to compare. And don't forget the "weird stuff happens when Tulsa plays Houston" factor.
I think Houston will get yards. If we hold on to the ball I think our running game has a chance to control the tempo and limit the points on the board. However, if we give up the ball or become one dimensional and Houston can stack the box, it could become a massacre. 40% chance of rain - which would help us.
The ball hasn't bounced our way for a couple of years. Houston by 21.
15.49 15.21 16.80 17.50
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Sagarin ranks Tulsa about where all the other models do. 80 - 122 range, but ~100 is where most have Tulsa.
He is a little higher on Houston than most, with Houston at #45, the range is 23 - 79, but it looks like most have Houston around #50.
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
The Cougs are #1 in the nation for total offense, with most of that coming through the air. My impression is that Tulsa does not have a solid pass defense, but the stats indicate our run and pass defense is about equal (#51 overall, 356 yards per game) - and that we usually hold opponents below their average:
Houston: 608 yards per game
Temple: 357 (300 against Tulsa)
Arkansas State: 471 (402)
Texas: 396 (478)
Central Arkansas: 388 (247)
https://static.tulsahurricane.com/custompages/stats/football/2018/teamstat.htm
While Houston's offensive probably is good and their opponent defenses do suffer a hit to their average, we may be the toughest defense they have played. Opponents defensive rank:
Rice: #115 (opponents have 484 yards per game average)
Arizona: #98 (418)
Texas Tech: #107 (447)
Texas Southern: FCS #110 (492)
Tulsa: #51, 356 yards per game before Houston
http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div
Then again, if they put up 600+ yards, our defensive average will tumble to that 400+ average and rank near 100+ also. If we remove the Houston game, those opponents don't look too dissimilar to Tulsa.
Other factors:
We had a week off. They had a week off. Game in Houston. We have not played the same team to compare. And don't forget the "weird stuff happens when Tulsa plays Houston" factor.
I think Houston will get yards. If we hold on to the ball I think our running game has a chance to control the tempo and limit the points on the board. However, if we give up the ball or become one dimensional and Houston can stack the box, it could become a massacre. 40% chance of rain - which would help us.
The ball hasn't bounced our way for a couple of years. Houston by 21.
I wish we were back in the bye week. It’s getting painful watching the team lose. Brings back bad memories!
I like our secondary. Coverage has been good, actually better than we have seen in many years.
Our sloppiness in the passing game has been our downfall this season. We need a clean, consistent passing game to turn things around. And as others have noted, varying the play calling a bit.
That said you can sort of expect a few first-game mistakes if Boomer starts. Still worth a shot.
Our sloppiness in the passing game has been our downfall this season. We need a clean, consistent passing game to turn things around. And as others have noted, varying the play calling a bit.
That said you can sort of expect a few first-game mistakes if Boomer starts. Still worth a shot.
Yea, I’m good with where the defense is at.
You can’t give up 55 points from offensive turnovers and miss 4 FG, all in 4 games, and expect to win, regardless of how good the defense is.
Is that what passes as an article in the Tulsa World these days? Here let's have a fourth grader try:
People like Skipper. They hate to see him struggle. You know what people hate more? Losing.
Houston vs Tulsa games are always interesting. Like when Tulsa upset and knocked the cougars out of the top ten and the next year were poisoned so Houston could run up the score over 100.
Anyway Boomer is going to start on Thursday for Tulsa who plays FBS football.
The 4th grader isn't on the Tulsa World staff.
The 4th grader has been writing for three years now and is still better than that Tulsa World Staff writer.
The 4th grader also has better knowledge about the team then the staff writer who covers them.
I feel this will be one of those games where on paper we lose by 3+ TD's, but Thursday night comes and we end up having a chance to win, but just enough chance to put hope in our hearts late in the 4th quarter just to watch it all wither away on a punt/interception/fumble return for a TD.
I expect it to be similar to the USF game last year.... it was much lower scoring for USF than most expected and it was because we knew their offense inside and out.
Win this and the Arkansas game and I might give Monty another year even if he doesn't win another game this season.
