He won't do that. Day one he will threaten our neighbors with the tariffs on such and such day if they don't play ball. I would bet on that.
This is the Republican Party
- Thread starter astonmartin708
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Hopefully the leaders of Mexico and China are as naive and gullible as some of the posters on this board
He actually threatened our neighbors 60 days prior to taking office. Why…. Because he has no interest in across the board tariffs He is using the threat as a means to get these countries to the table to negotiate. Will it work….yes, to some extent Probably should have been done sometime ago as these countries have shown little interest in working with the US on issues such as fentanyl
Finally, I assume the Trump people understand the inflationary pressures of tariffs I’m also assuming Janet Yellen will not be part of the economic discussion We will see some tariffs Most will be short term to gain a response from the targeted countries Others will likely be longer term to address Chinese goods coming in through Mexico via NAFTA.
Check back in six months to see if I’m correct
Yeah, they don't even approach gullible. The problem is that Mexico's leaders are probably corrupt enough that it may not may matter.
This is how I read it. "China, etc. I hereby impose x, y, z effective in 90 days if you don't do this."
Still waiting for Mexico to pay for that wall.....
Let the trade wars begin!
apnews.com
Mexico suggests it would impose its own tariffs to retaliate against any Trump tariffs
President Claudia Sheinbaum says Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods.
apnews.com
lol Posturing for the rubes. Mexico will talk tough and give the appearance of strength before bending the knee. This is all a negotiation Nothing more nothing lessLet the trade wars begin!
Mexico suggests it would impose its own tariffs to retaliate against any Trump tariffs
President Claudia Sheinbaum says Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods.
Yeah a real lesson in the art of the deal 🙄
It’s not going to solve the Fentanyl crisis, and instead it’s going to raise the price of cars, produce etc… want to take a bet on how much the price of a tomato goes up in the next 12 months?
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So in nearly 20 years $34 billion. Thats practically nothing. It would have been less than 1% of their total budget during the period.
Thats like saying they need to start paying their rent, stop buying them a coke every month!
It makes no difference to whether or not they do what they want them to do.
You still don’t understand what’s going on here. There won’t be significant long term tariffs This is all posturing. A deal will be struck which magically avoids significant tariffs on non Chinese goods imported from Mexico All sides will declare victory Why the left can’t see this is beyond me Maybe because Biden didn’t know where Mexico was located over the last year ?
So yes….I will take that bet regarding the price of cars.
Because I think you give Trump too much credit. I also think that if the ruse is as simple as you think it is, then the Mexicans and Chinese can sniff it out and plan accordingly. Mexico might not be strong enough to impose their will... but China isn't going to rollover. They will fight and will escalate the trade war because they can.
PS... I didn't say the price of cars. I said the price of produce. Cars are not must have items in the same way food is.
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He thinks he is a shrewd negotiator which makes him incredibly predictable.... easy to plan against. That's why Putin prefers him, he poses very little threat. Especially when he plays his hand publicly long before he can implement it, giving his opposition more time to adjust.
The opposite is actually true Trump is unpredictable Which is why many believe his threat to slap tariffs on goods coming into this country at the risk of wrecking our economy If any other President in the last 40 years made such a threat it would be summarily dismissed due to the disastrous potential consequences. Those type of people pose the most difficult negotiations.
He's not unpredictable at all.
Assume he will lie. Assume he will be petty and hold a grudge. Assume he will be self serving. Assume he will be vain. Assume that he won't account for the difficulty his actions place upon others. Assume that he will listen to the people who tell him what he wants to hear. Assume he won't keep promises if they become difficult for him to keep. Assume he won't act according to social norms or systematic expectations. Assume he he will try to bully those who don't agree after he's made up his mind. Assume that he will be petulant and refuse to admit his mistakes if you call his bluff and it blows up on him.
Trump is incredibly predictable. Just ask yourself what an obnoxious teenager would do if given presidential authority. That's basically it.
Presidents who mostly tell the truth, but occasionally lie are more deceptive and effective. If you're reliably unreliable you're easy to deal with.
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All of this ignores the complete inability of Mexico to really do much of anything on their side of the border to stop drug and human traffic into the US. If they could stop the cartels without causing a civil war in their own country, they would have done it by now. Even if the new president really wanted to (and I'm sure she does), the lower level organizations that need to enforce her desires are fully captured by organized crime, or corrupt, or both.
It's not like we aren't trying on our end. I'll grant you that more can and should be done, but we aren't exactly ignoring the border no matter what you might hear. We have thousands of agents, microphones, video monitoring, the works. And it's hardly making a dent. Tunnels more than ten feet deep are nigh impossible to detect if you don't know where they are. Cartels and human traffickers have huge incentives and budgets that would make Bernie Sanders blush. Why would we expect Mexico to be able to do better with fewer resources, more systemic corruption and violence, and far less incentive?
Trump may or may not try to impose tariffs on Mexico in defiance of NAFTA. If they are restricted to Chinese products being funneled through Mexico, he might even get away with it. And he could get his PR moment where the Mexican president vows to redouble their efforts on their side of the border as a "concession" to limit tariffs to stuff like that or not at all. Even in that scenario, I wouldn't expect a single thing to change.
I'm really tired of the showmanship in lieu of any substance at all. He killed a reasonable border bill earlier this year. He could try to revive it and take credit, but that bill took months of good faith effort at negotiating to get the 60 votes necessary in the Senate. And a lot of that well is now poisoned. By him.
It's not like we aren't trying on our end. I'll grant you that more can and should be done, but we aren't exactly ignoring the border no matter what you might hear. We have thousands of agents, microphones, video monitoring, the works. And it's hardly making a dent. Tunnels more than ten feet deep are nigh impossible to detect if you don't know where they are. Cartels and human traffickers have huge incentives and budgets that would make Bernie Sanders blush. Why would we expect Mexico to be able to do better with fewer resources, more systemic corruption and violence, and far less incentive?
Trump may or may not try to impose tariffs on Mexico in defiance of NAFTA. If they are restricted to Chinese products being funneled through Mexico, he might even get away with it. And he could get his PR moment where the Mexican president vows to redouble their efforts on their side of the border as a "concession" to limit tariffs to stuff like that or not at all. Even in that scenario, I wouldn't expect a single thing to change.
I'm really tired of the showmanship in lieu of any substance at all. He killed a reasonable border bill earlier this year. He could try to revive it and take credit, but that bill took months of good faith effort at negotiating to get the 60 votes necessary in the Senate. And a lot of that well is now poisoned. By him.
Literally every left wing politician and pundit has been ranting for the past year about his unpredictability. Hell…the DNC ran campaign adds claiming as much
What would my teenager do given presidential authority….not only do I have no idea but he wouldn’t either Basically the definition of unpredictable
I think you guys are talking past each other.
Can anyone predict exactly what Trump will do or say next? No. I'll grant you that. Tomorrow he might be talking about sending the Statue of Liberty back to France if they don't pay for rental space in New York Harbor for all I know.
But his basic MO and strategies are all pretty straightforward and easy to see through once he makes any move. He might do or say something "crazy" and open negotiations in an unexpected way. But it's not hard at all to see what his game is. You've said this yourself upthread.
I don’t disagree However in almost every negotiation you know what each side end game is. Trump in this respect is no different than any other party to a negotiation What differentiates Trump imo is his unpredictability in what he’s willing to do in order to achieve his desired result The fact that so many people are fearful of the prospect of him crashing the US economy to achieve his goals illustrated as much What President in the last 40 years could make such a threat and people take the same as credible ? The Dems haven’t been wrong about him….he is subject to doing unpredictable things
Negotiating with him is like playing checkers with a pigeon. He'll threaten to upset the board and kicks all the pieces to the ground, and everyone will wonder if he's gone mad and breathlessly report on how dangerous/unpredictable/crazy he is. That's not "unpredictability". That's easily predictable.
The only real trick to negotiating with him is appealing to his ego and/or making him think he thought of whatever solution himself. Or just straight manipulation: Play along at first, pretend to be incensed at his outrageous antics. Begrudgingly give him some meaningless "win" after a couple of rounds of negotiating that he can trumpet and he'll declare victory in the press. Do that, and he won't upset the checkers board. Predictable.
Mexico seems to be going this route. Eventually, they'll probably agree to increase their own border security and designate more federales there and will clamp down on the Chinese fentanyl being imported by the cartels or whatever in exchange for no new tariffs. It will make ZERO effective difference because they can't deliver, but Trump can claim he brought them to the table and got them to play ball and that now everything will be just peachy do to his brilliant and aggressive plays that nobody else would dare to do. It probably doesn't even matter if Mexico actually even makes any changes in the following months.
So yeah, pretty easy to play his game.
Yet people have been freaking out that he’s going to impose tariffs across the board and wreck the economy? Seems like a lot of people don’t understand his “game” I’ve been pretty clear that I agree with you on the outcome here There are a number of people (we’ve seen it on this board) who believe tariffs wars are on the way though.
I do expect the number of illegals attempting to cross the border will drop Drugs are a more complex problem
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I will just say that if he does what he says, expect higher prices.
My complaint is that he only cares about PR wins and not substantive reform or measurable improvement. He's easy to negotiate with if you recognize that. And it's also very difficult to enact meaningful change that is often hard to enact when the POTUS only cares about the topfold headlines. You could have a carefully crafted plan and the votes to get it passed, but if it doesn't have some high-stakes sexy headline in it that has a clear winner and loser, he's not going to give a crap and might even veto it. There's no incentive to even pursue something like that while he is in office.
Can't say it any more clearly than you have in your last 3 or 4 posts. If people want to look past it, that's on them.
Yet he transformed the country with supreme court picks.
That's about the only thing substantive he accomplished. And he didn't have to negotiate it.
That was on Republican congress on one of those picks. They denied Obama a pick that should have been his, because it came at the last of his term.(1 year before it ended which wasn't the last of his term
) Three or four months is the last of your term. It should be a 5-4 majority not a 6-3 majority for Republicans. That would have changed the abortion vote and likely others too. Abortion was 5-4 to overturn. Would have been 5-4 to not overturn if Obama's pick was in, instead of Trump's first pick. A Republican congress obstinately stole that pick for Trump. He didn't do anything for that 'gift'.
To a point Roberts concurred on the decision but only to the extent of prohibiting abortions after 15 weeks So the right of have an abortion would have been preserved up to 15 weeks Still much better than the result of the court I’ve said for years that Roe V Wade needed to be codified Thought the Dems had the votes on several instances Maybe they can address it in 2029That was on Republican congress on one of those picks. They denied Obama a pick that should have been his, because it came at the last of his term.(1 year before it ended which wasn't the last of his term
It should be a 5-4 majority not a 6-3 majority for Republicans. That would have changed the abortion vote and likely others too. Abortion was 5-4 to overturn. Would have been 5-4 to not overturn if Obama's pick was in, instead of Trump's first pick. A Republican congress obstinately stole that pick for Trump. He didn't do anything for that 'gift'.
I doubt too many Democrats wanted abortions past 15 weeks anyway, despite falsely advertised abortions after the baby is born (kind of junk) promoted by Trump as the Democratic view. Abortions up to 15 weeks is fairly opposite to no abortions ever, (sometimes w/ no exceptions ) or after 6 weeks. I believe that's approximately 10 or 12 states positions.
So the problem with a trade war is that it’s not just fought by one side.
Even if he thinks he can get his way and just impose tariffs for a short period of time… the world may not work that way. There are other players.
Kind of reminds me how his tax cuts were supposed to pay for themselves…. Then we got Covid and that was thrown out the window. Good idea when nothing goes wrong.
Hopefully we will see a push to codify reasonable abortion access in the next 5-10 years A significant majority of the country supports such a measure 13 states still have total abortion bans
He feels like he already accomplished something before he gets in office, and his ego is boosted. Trump is appeased, nothing is accomplished, and Sheinbaum gets to run her quiet, smirking victory lap.
