The first 100 days

[lawpoke87]

Valuation and business performance are not necessarily the same.

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

He has accomplished a lot. He made electronic cars a big thing. He has taken the cost of space exploration to record low levels. It is pretty special honestly.


Along these lines, People's belief in future performance also does extraordinary things to one's mind. People give too much credence to what that man can pull off, and they often forgive him for it. It is wild.

FDA is not here. Semis are not here. Now everyone thinks xAI is the tits with five people. Tesla is overvalued. They aren't the only EV game in town anymore. Their sales are going down. But Cathie Wood, who somehow gets us on CNBC every day and everyone thinks is brilliant, claims it is going to 9 trillion. It's outrageous.

It is being shown that DOGE is utterly lying about the government's savings from "cancelled" contracts that have already been spent.

The social security dead people that don't exist. I think Elon is lucky he isn't being sued for defamation.

The list is epic. Don't get me started on a pump-and-dump scam artist like Vivek.

 

[lawpoke87]

Not sure why you guys are so focused on Tesla when SpaceX has a $350B valuation

 

[drboobay]

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

Projected performance is the biggest unknown and historically risky part of valuations.

It is easy to see current earnings and even see shorter term prospects. But irrational exuberance is the big risk in growth stocks. I think Tesla has finally started to get a little dose of reality. But Musk projects a good story.

I will add that I see everything from the lense of my training in the psychology of leadership. Both Trump and Musk are very dangerous guys from that perspective and that completely supersedes politics. It is a completely rational point of view.

 

[astonmartin708]

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

What do you mean by 'performed'?

Do you mean that his companies have higher market valuations than those of other people in the last decade? I would argue that NVIDIA has been better over the same time period..... still, being in second place is still laudable...but he's also the head of a company that is mostly valued speculatively for future potential rather than for its past performance which has been mediocre in comparison to its competitors.

SpaceX is better, but there's not such a huge industry for that... and instead of firmly seizing on the companies momentous achievements and turning them into a sizeable revenue stream he is making customers (mostly defense / industrial minded customers) think twice about using Starlink because he has weaponized its access in places like Ukraine, and that makes it unreliable to them... and kind of defeats its entire purpose.

 

[lawpoke87]

What do you mean by 'performed'?

Do you mean that his companies have higher market valuations than those of other people in the last decade? I would argue that NVIDIA has been better over the same time period..... still, being in second place is still laudable...but he's also the head of a company that is mostly valued speculatively for future potential rather than for its past performance which has been mediocre in comparison to its competitors.

SpaceX is better, but there's not such a huge industry for that... and instead of firmly seizing on the companies momentous achievements and turning them into a sizeable revenue stream he is making customers (mostly defense / industrial minded customers) think twice about using Starlink because he has weaponized its access in places like Ukraine, and that makes it unreliable to them... and kind of defeats its entire

Musk companies had a valuation in 2010 of approx $1.5B. In 2025 that number had grown to $400B. I’m not aware of any individuals who have seen their net worth grow by almost $400B in the last 15 years. Yet, there are those on this board arguing he is a bad businessman. Like I said…partisanship leads people down strange paths

 

[astonmartin708]

Musk companies had a valuation in 2010 of approx $1.5B. In 2025 that number had grown to $400B. I’m not aware of any individuals who have seen their net worth grow by almost $400B in the last 15 years. Yet, there are those on this board arguing he is a bad businessman. Like I said…partisanship leads people down strange paths

What are you even talking about? Tesla has a market cap of 1 Trillion. In 2010 Nvidia had a market cap of about 4-6B they now have one over 3 Trillion.

I also don’t particularly buy some of Musk’s valuations of his ancillary companies as they often revolve around estimates created by his other companies. Which is basically a shell game.

Musk’s wealth mostly revolves around his Tesla shares the value of which he jeopardizes with his antics and lack of focus on actually making cars. Ironically the massive jump in Tesla’s revenue since 2020 mostly revolved around EV tax credits and the IRA.

 

[drboobay]

Musk companies had a valuation in 2010 of approx $1.5B. In 2025 that number had grown to $400B. I’m not aware of any individuals who have seen their net worth grow by almost $400B in the last 15 years. Yet, there are those on this board arguing he is a bad businessman. Like I said…partisanship leads people down strange paths

I did not say that. My point is that valuation and business performance are not synonymous if you mean stock price. Many growth stocks are valued far beyond their current profitability, for example. Tesla also facing some headwinds now.

 

[aTUfan]

Absolutely. Don't forget Medicaid. Have to cut the support for the most vulnerable to pay for taxcuts for the wealthiest.

tax cut for the wealthy or anybody, just means they get to KEEP more of their OWN money

Medicaid is not a cure, it is only a Bandaid on a bigger problem

 

[watu05]

Musk is a side issue compared to the destructive actions that Trump is using him to pursue. People wanted change, but at some point are going to realize that Musk is a side show to distract from the effort to give a $4T tax break mostly to top 1% by cutting services for the bottom 50%.

 

[watu05]

A modest proposal.

What Congress could do to help all Americans instead of just the top 1%.

1) Pass the Senate's bi-partisan immigration bill that Trump killed in the House just before the election. Immigration reform has been needed for 20 years and repeatedly stalled in the House. Why not move this pre-packaged, bi-partisan bill forward so the President has more tools to deal with the problem?
2) Let the 2016 tax bill lapse. Trying to find $4T in Federal expenditures an is not longer an immediate problem. The top 1% have had 7 or 8 years of a good deal, and letting things return to pre-2016 levels will benefit the national debt and are a small sacrifice for the top 1% to make.

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

Musk companies had a valuation in 2010 of approx $1.5B. In 2025 that number had grown to $400B. I’m not aware of any individuals who have seen their net worth grow by almost $400B in the last 15 years. Yet, there are those on this board arguing he is a bad businessman. Like I said…partisanship leads people down strange paths

You are correct. There has never been anyone growing wealth like that. No. One. If Spacex went public, it would be worth at least 100 billion more.

He is now going to start facing real competition from Blue Origin (bezo's outfit), and I think some others are lurking, too.

Elon is a strange, strange person. I believe he is going to go the way of Howard Hughes and Henry Ford. Lying about his Diablo II game mastery is just weird. Then, the harem he runs around with and is now knocking up another weirdo conservative social media person. It is different. It is all excused because he is mega-rich. In America, we think being rich gives you the credence to comment and
understand everything. I think

Elon is extremely conspiratorial and full of . Pimping 50 million social security dead. It is ridiculous. It just destroys your cred. They are utterly lying about their savings and are proving that they don't understand the government.

There was a deal posted on Facebook today about the IRS about an IRS person who had just moved his family to Oklahoma to restart his, and there was a menagerie of comments on there. They ranged from abolishing the IRS to screwing that worthless government crap. The funnier ones were the people bitching about the timeliness of IRS responses. It is like, uh, duders, do you think that laying off 5-10k IRS workers is going to make that better? Too funny.

Now the homey is flying in 4,000 Starlink modems and engineers to supplant Verizon all of a sudden at the FAA on a multi-billion dollar contract.

It is weird to me how so many tech people think they can just come in and completely revolutionize industries or act like they haven't been working on this stuff. I know they have been talking about changing FAA tech since Obama or changing government code. Why don't they? It is expensive and time-consuming. I read something the other day about how Larry Ellison dropped a half-billion dollars into trying to do some tech-based farming in Lanai. It has been a total failure. Mostly alluded to that none of these people had any experience in the most basic of things they were trying to mess with agriculture.

Elon showed up and was supposed to kick-being's VCA 25-2B. Yes, elon, it should go faster. But you wanted less money. We don't build too many 747s anymore, and the president's stuff has to be friggin perfect and highly classified. I wondered how he was able even to get in there. I assume that many people need TSCI level clearances for those programs. In the real world, openly smoking pot on Joe Rogan and smashing endless amounts of kettermine would lose your clearances. The boeing ceo was kind and just said Elon is a brilliant guy, and that was that. I am sure there was a huge dog and pony show with him there, wasting people's time.

 

[watu05]

"It is weird to me how so many tech people think they can just come in and completely revolutionize industries or act like they haven't been working on this stuff. I know they have been talking about changing FAA tech since Obama or changing government code."

Agreed. In the PNW area we saw it all the time. Guys who made money at Microsoft and thought they were all Bill Gates or smarter. Enough failed startups and VC's quickly began applying big discounts to that experience.

 

[astonmartin708]

In the first 100 days of his stint as shadow president, Elon has saved a few billion dollars by making the government objectively worse, and lost $100 billion dollars of his own personal wealth by emulating Nazi ideals. (Tesla is tanking)

 

[lawpoke87]

In the first 100 days of his stint as shadow president, Elon has saved a few billion dollars by making the government objectively worse, and lost $100 billion dollars of his own personal wealth by emulating Nazi ideals. (Tesla is tanking)

A business picking one side or the other politically is seldom a good financial decision. Not sure Musk as he had to know it would harm his bottom line

 

[astonmartin708]

Markets are looking like we’re going to see a turn towards recession. Who had that on their “first 100 days” bingo card?

 

[lawpoke87]

Markets are looking like we’re going to see a turn towards recession. Who had that on their “first 100 days” bingo card?

I was hoping

 

[astonmartin708]

I was hoping

Fun fact, going back to Lyndon B Johnson, every recession (occurrence of a prolonged shrinking GDP as defined by the NBER) has started under a Republican administration.

 

[lawpoke87]

Fun fact, going back to Lyndon B Johnson, every recession (occurrence of a prolonged shrinking GDP as defined by the NBER) has started under a Republican administration.

Jimmy Carter Jan-July 1980 GDP decline 2.2% ?

 

[astonmartin708]

Jimmy Carter Jan-July 1980 GDP decline 2.2% ?

Apologies you are correct. You guys are batting .857 since LBJ! (Soon to be .888)

Don’t sell yourselves too short though! You also have the Great Depression to your name as well!

….and the wars in the Middle East…and Iran contra…and watergate….and teapot dome…. Just a litany of great policy decisions. I mean real banger after banger after banger.

 

[astonmartin708]

To be fair…. Dems have Vietnam, the Iran hostage Crisis, and Obama’s tan suit.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

To be fair…. Dems have Vietnam, the Iran hostage Crisis, and Obama’s tan suit.

To be fair, a shrinking GDP and a recession often come on the heels of inflationary periods in the economy.

 

[astonmartin708]

To be fair, a shrinking GDP and a recession often come on the heels of inflationary periods in the economy.

Meh. Many of these recessions have come well into Republican administrations. Reagan had one midway through then left Bush 1.0 with another. Bush 2.0 had the after government shrank under Newt and Clinton, but also had the Great Recession in 08. Trump had his Covid era recession.

I don’t think you can attribute this coming one to Biden. Trump has flipped over to many tables all by himself. Cutting the government workforce + increasing tariffs + impending tax breaks that don’t trickle to the lower or middle class + deporting agricultural and service workers in the western US + helping your most valuable car manufacturer lite his business of fire…. Will breed GDP declines.

 

[lawpoke87]

Meh. Many of these recessions have come well into Republican administrations. Reagan had one midway through then left Bush 1.0 with another. Bush 2.0 had the after government shrank under Newt and Clinton, but also had the Great Recession in 08. Trump had his Covid era recession.

I don’t think you can attribute this coming one to Biden. Trump has flipped over to many tables all by himself. Cutting the government workforce + increasing tariffs + impending tax breaks that don’t trickle to the lower or middle class + deporting agricultural and service workers in the western US + helping your most valuable car manufacturer lite his business of fire…. Will breed GDP declines.

The Feds response to inflation is to decrease the money supply which inevitably leads to lower or negative GDP growth which in turns corrects inflationary pressures.

Other recessions have been caused by business or market conditions such as the Dotcom bubble under Clinton or the bank and S&L collapse under Bush. In most cases the crisis which led to the recession was years in the making and predated the President in whose term it occurred.

Now I do believe Trump is contributing to the current slowdown just as Biden contributed to the recent inflationary pressures. I’m not all that sad in that the slowdown with act to reduce inflation as well as interest rates. Thus aiding the housing market

 

[Gmoney4WW]

The Feds response to inflation is to decrease the money supply which inevitably leads to lower or negative GDP growth which in turns corrects inflationary pressures.

Other recessions have been caused by business or market conditions such as the Dotcom bubble under Clinton or the bank and S&L collapse under Bush. In most cases the crisis which led to the recession was years in the making and predated the President in whose term it occurred.

Now I do believe Trump is contributing to the current slowdown just as Biden contributed to the recent inflationary pressures. I’m not all that sad in that the slowdown with act to reduce inflation as well as interest rates. Thus aiding the housing market

All of the above with emphasis on the last paragraph.

 

[watu05]

Meh. Many of these recessions have come well into Republican administrations. Reagan had one midway through then left Bush 1.0 with another. Bush 2.0 had the after government shrank under Newt and Clinton, but also had the Great Recession in 08. Trump had his Covid era recession.

I don’t think you can attribute this coming one to Biden. Trump has flipped over to many tables all by himself. Cutting the government workforce + increasing tariffs + impending tax breaks that don’t trickle to the lower or middle class + deporting agricultural and service workers in the western US + helping your most valuable car manufacturer lite his business of fire…. Will breed GDP declines.

Clinton handed off a budget surplus to Dubya who immediately eviscerated it with a big tax cut.
Dubya handed off the worst economic bust in 70 years to Obama and budget deficits that would go on for years.
Obama handed off a defining deficits and a stabilized, strong economy to Trump., who immediately passed another huge tax cut.
Trump handed off a disaster to Biden in the form of huge national debt and economy afflicted by a broken vaccination program.
Biden handed off a full employment economy recovering from recession and inflation.

If Trump hadn't "flipped over so many tables" it would be fair to give him a pass on the immediate economy, but his current chaos is designed to create an immediate impact. Excluding the economy makes no sense, particularly since it undermines core arguments that he campaigned on; lower prices, lower interest rates, etc. What he #1 economic priority is delivering a $4T tax cut for the top 1% and having the bottom 50% pay for it.

 

[astonmartin708]

The Feds response to inflation is to decrease the money supply which inevitably leads to lower or negative GDP growth which in turns corrects inflationary pressures.

Other recessions have been caused by business or market conditions such as the Dotcom bubble under Clinton or the bank and S&L collapse under Bush. In most cases the crisis which led to the recession was years in the making and predated the President in whose term it occurred.

Now I do believe Trump is contributing to the current slowdown just as Biden contributed to the recent inflationary pressures. I’m not all that sad in that the slowdown with act to reduce inflation as well as interest rates. Thus aiding the housing market

I don’t agree with the “and predated the President in whose term it occurred”

Sure some of the problems were festering across several administrations with some of them (like the subprime loan crisis), but they had many years of opportunity to avoid or unwind those consequences and never did…. In most cases they didn’t even make their causes a main campaign item during election or reelection years.

 

[drboobay]

Trump seems to be actively screwing his voters now that he no longer needs votes. Raising prices and pushing us towards recession with reckless abandon and malice. And poor understanding of economics.

 

[lawpoke87]

I don’t agree with the “and predated the President in whose term it occurred”

Sure some of the problems were festering across several administrations with some of them (like the subprime loan crisis), but they had many years of opportunity to avoid or unwind those consequences and never did…. In most cases they didn’t even make their causes a main campaign item during election or reelection years.

You don’t agree that the dotcom bubble occurred during the Clinton presidency which resulted in the recession during the Bush presidency?

The dotcom and housing bubble had a great deal in common. Both resulting in GDP growth and great wealth for Tech (dotcom) and Wall Street (housing). Political leaders of both parties either ignored or didn’t understand the risks of the growing bubble due to a thriving economy. Did they realize the economic growth was based on smoke and mirrors ? Maybe some did. Others didn’t while even others were tacitly ignorant. Not sure the Presidents (Clinton or Bush) played a significant factor in either bubble. Several good movies out detailing the subprime crisis. I’m a financial guy and even I have a hard time understanding exactly what Wall Street was doing with the paper and the gambling on the same

 

[lawpoke87]

Trump seems to be actively screwing his voters now that he no longer needs votes. Raising prices and pushing us towards recession with reckless abandon and malice. And poor understanding of economics.

Don’t disagree as a whole but prices will head lower if we enter a recession. The bond market is already beginning to price in lower inflation

 

[astonmartin708]

You don’t agree that the dotcom bubble occurred during the Clinton presidency which resulted in the recession during the Bush presidency?

The dotcom and housing bubble had a great deal in common. Both resulting in GDP growth and great wealth for Tech (dotcom) and Wall Street (housing). Political leaders of both parties either ignored or didn’t understand the risks of the growing bubble due to a thriving economy. Did they realize the economic growth was based on smoke and mirrors ? Maybe some did. Others didn’t while even others were tacitly ignorant. Not sure the Presidents (Clinton or Bush) played a significant factor in either bubble. Several good movies out detailing the subprime crisis. I’m a financial guy and even I have a hard time understanding exactly what Wall Street was doing with the paper and the gambling on the same

The Dotcom is an exception which I make for both Bush and Clinton. Bush and to some degree Clinton, had years to unravel or reverse the subprime crisis. I know it was hard for even some experts to understand the intricacies…but that’s kind of their administration’s job.

Why wasn’t Bush’s HUD department sounding warning bells in 2004 about the rise in adjustable rate mortgages?

 

[astonmartin708]

Don’t disagree as a whole but prices will head lower if we enter a recession. The bond market is already beginning to price in lower inflation

Killed inflation!

Started a depression….

 

[lawpoke87]

The Dotcom is an exception which I make for both Bush and Clinton. Bush and to some degree Clinton, had years to unravel or reverse the subprime crisis. I know it was hard for even some experts to understand the intricacies…but that’s kind of their administration’s job.

Why wasn’t Bush’s HUD department sounding warning bells in 2004 about the rise in adjustable rate mortgages?

Very few people were aware of the fraud going on and none of those people were outside of the rating agencies and Wall Street. We had mortgages securities of all ratings bundled into a single security. The ratings agencies whose job it was to rate the security were in bed with Wall Street and ignored the risk giving the securities the highest of ratings. Thus….no alarms were sounded. Simple greed

Politicians along with Wall Street assumed housing prices would continue to rise thus adjustable rates weren’t an issue. Similar to dotcom companies and their valuations. Good times combined with money tend to blind a lot of people.

 

[astonmartin708]

Very few people were aware of the fraud going on and none of those people were outside of the rating agencies and Wall Street. We had mortgages securities of all ratings bundled into a single security. The ratings agencies whose job it was to rate the security were in bed with Wall Street and ignored the risk giving the securities the highest of ratings. Thus….no alarms were sounded. Simple greed

Politicians along with Wall Street assumed housing prices would continue to rise thus adjustable rates weren’t an issue. Similar to dotcom companies and their valuations. Good times combined with money tend to blind a lot of people.

You don’t think the government had any data on breakdowns of mortgage terms (ARM vs Fixed 15 vs. Fixed 30)? No one at Fanny or Freddy saw that and said… “huh….”?

Just because they didn’t know about the tranches doesn’t mean they didn’t know about the adjustable rate shenanigans… or the shady lending practices…

And if they didn’t they should have… and that’s their fault. It wasn’t just greed in a couple places it was government oversight complacency.

 

[lawpoke87]

You don’t think the government had any data on breakdowns of mortgage terms (ARM vs Fixed 15 vs. Fixed 30)? No one at Fanny or Freddy saw that and said… “huh….”?

Just because they didn’t know about the tranches doesn’t mean they didn’t know about the adjustable rate shenanigans… or the shady lending practices…

And if they didn’t they should have… and that’s their fault. It wasn’t just greed in a couple places it was government oversight complacency.

There is no doubt a lack of federal regulation played a vital role in the subprime crisis. Who knew or should have known is the question. Seems to be the question in most meltdowns in hindsight. Lots of really smart people were still throwing money into dotcom even though valuation were at unprecedented levels. Why….because they assumed valuations would continue to go up. Much like housing prior to the subprime meltdown.

I almost went out of business during the crash. I remember walking down our street with my wife trying to figure out how to save our house and company. Not great times.

 

[astonmartin708]

There is no doubt a lack of federal regulation played a vital role in the subprime crisis. Who knew or should have known is the question. Seems to be the question in most meltdowns in hindsight. Lots of really smart people were still throwing money into dotcom even though valuation were at unprecedented levels. Why….because they assumed valuations would continue to go up. Much like housing prior to the subprime meltdown.

I almost went out of business during the crash. I remember walking down our street with my wife trying to figure out how to save our house and company. Not great times.

No doubt times were tough.

I do think it’s funny that you hold Deborah Gist to account for her failings of administration, but not the President of the United States. Lol

 

[drboobay]

There is no doubt a lack of federal regulation played a vital role in the subprime crisis. Who knew or should have known is the question. Seems to be the question in most meltdowns in hindsight. Lots of really smart people were still throwing money into dotcom even though valuation were at unprecedented levels. Why….because they assumed valuations would continue to go up. Much like housing prior to the subprime meltdown.

I almost went out of business during the crash. I remember walking down our street with my wife trying to figure out how to save our house and company. Not great times.

I was in trouble too.

Ended up joining another company who took on my products.

 

[astonmartin708]

Killed inflation!

Started a depression….

I can already hear Trump’s voice… “My depression was a Great Depression….

Some might say the greatest depression.

Have you heard them say that?

I don’t know if I would go that far but that’s what they’re saying.

You know I’ve always said I was going to make America great again and I really did.

No one has had a greater depression than I have. “

 

[lawpoke87]

No doubt times were tough.

I do think it’s funny that you hold Deborah Gist to account for her failings of administration, but not the President of the United States. Lol

I find it funny you’re trying to compare TPS Admin breaking the law by very simple actions to maybe the most complicated financial crisis in world history.

 

[lawpoke87]

I can already hear Trump’s voice… “My depression was a Great Depression….

Some might say the greatest depression.

Have you heard them say that?

I don’t know if I would go that far but that’s what they’re saying.

You know I’ve always said I was going to make America great again and I really did.

No one has had a greater depression than I have. “

You realize you’re now going to get called out when this depression never occurs…right ?