The first 100 days

[lawpoke87]

Valuation and business performance are not necessarily the same.

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

He has accomplished a lot. He made electronic cars a big thing. He has taken the cost of space exploration to record low levels. It is pretty special honestly.


Along these lines, People's belief in future performance also does extraordinary things to one's mind. People give too much credence to what that man can pull off, and they often forgive him for it. It is wild.

FDA is not here. Semis are not here. Now everyone thinks xAI is the tits with five people. Tesla is overvalued. They aren't the only EV game in town anymore. Their sales are going down. But Cathie Wood, who somehow gets us on CNBC every day and everyone thinks is brilliant, claims it is going to 9 trillion. It's outrageous.

It is being shown that DOGE is utterly lying about the government's savings from "cancelled" contracts that have already been spent.

The social security dead people that don't exist. I think Elon is lucky he isn't being sued for defamation.

The list is epic. Don't get me started on a pump-and-dump scam artist like Vivek.

 

[lawpoke87]

Not sure why you guys are so focused on Tesla when SpaceX has a $350B valuation

 

[drboobay]

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

Projected performance is the biggest unknown and historically risky part of valuations.

It is easy to see current earnings and even see shorter term prospects. But irrational exuberance is the big risk in growth stocks. I think Tesla has finally started to get a little dose of reality. But Musk projects a good story.

I will add that I see everything from the lense of my training in the psychology of leadership. Both Trump and Musk are very dangerous guys from that perspective and that completely supersedes politics. It is a completely rational point of view.

 

[astonmartin708]

I’ll bite. Valuation is largely based on a company’s past, current and projected performance. What else determines stock price in your mind?

Partisanship does strange things to reasonable people. You guys are arguing that a guy whose companies have performed better than those of any human being in the US over the last decade plus is a bad businessman. Amazing logic

What do you mean by 'performed'?

Do you mean that his companies have higher market valuations than those of other people in the last decade? I would argue that NVIDIA has been better over the same time period..... still, being in second place is still laudable...but he's also the head of a company that is mostly valued speculatively for future potential rather than for its past performance which has been mediocre in comparison to its competitors.

SpaceX is better, but there's not such a huge industry for that... and instead of firmly seizing on the companies momentous achievements and turning them into a sizeable revenue stream he is making customers (mostly defense / industrial minded customers) think twice about using Starlink because he has weaponized its access in places like Ukraine, and that makes it unreliable to them... and kind of defeats its entire purpose.

 

[lawpoke87]

What do you mean by 'performed'?

Do you mean that his companies have higher market valuations than those of other people in the last decade? I would argue that NVIDIA has been better over the same time period..... still, being in second place is still laudable...but he's also the head of a company that is mostly valued speculatively for future potential rather than for its past performance which has been mediocre in comparison to its competitors.

SpaceX is better, but there's not such a huge industry for that... and instead of firmly seizing on the companies momentous achievements and turning them into a sizeable revenue stream he is making customers (mostly defense / industrial minded customers) think twice about using Starlink because he has weaponized its access in places like Ukraine, and that makes it unreliable to them... and kind of defeats its entire

Musk companies had a valuation in 2010 of approx $1.5B. In 2025 that number had grown to $400B. I’m not aware of any individuals who have seen their net worth grow by almost $400B in the last 15 years. Yet, there are those on this board arguing he is a bad businessman. Like I said…partisanship leads people down strange paths

 

[astonmartin708]

Musk companies had a valuation in 2010 of approx $1.5B. In 2025 that number had grown to $400B. I’m not aware of any individuals who have seen their net worth grow by almost $400B in the last 15 years. Yet, there are those on this board arguing he is a bad businessman. Like I said…partisanship leads people down strange paths

What are you even talking about? Tesla has a market cap of 1 Trillion. In 2010 Nvidia had a market cap of about 4-6B they now have one over 3 Trillion.

I also don’t particularly buy some of Musk’s valuations of his ancillary companies as they often revolve around estimates created by his other companies. Which is basically a shell game.

Musk’s wealth mostly revolves around his Tesla shares the value of which he jeopardizes with his antics and lack of focus on actually making cars. Ironically the massive jump in Tesla’s revenue since 2020 mostly revolved around EV tax credits and the IRA.