Such questioning will not be permitted to happen now that Congress has spent us over the cliff
The bad news is still spreading
- Thread starter TUMe
- Start date
there seems to be two sides to the issue. one is total reliance on the gov edicts for everything the other is give me the data and let me decide.
Yeah, but if you got nothing in the bank (which is why you are shopping at Dollar General), you’re not a very good litigant for most attorneys. I’d like to know what happened with the security guard who was murdered.
I thought the previous bid was 60,000, but the King said the bid was 65,000. No wonder he did so poorly in business.
I just checked IHME (who the Hell ever they are) and their prediction is 134,475. 134,476 is possible though. Hopefully the 6 isn't me. That is August 1.
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Keep saying that.
This is a good read, though not about models: https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/opin...avirus-what-does-she-foresee-next/ar-BB13yY8A
Really going to have to see it further on down the line, though. I won't feel comfortable that their experiment has given us reliable data for 4-6 wks after reopening.
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Yes. I would like to know what happened. We’ll probably have a report at some point.
One thing that I have long observed is that we often don’t pay public employees their proper value. That affects a lot of things, but mainly the market and quality of who you have working there. It’s true of the very underpaid court staff in Tulsa and mostly true of the judges in Oklahoma. I wonder if the CDC has similar issues.
In an alternate reality I'd like to see how Who would have handled this before China began corrupting them, and the CDC would have handled this during the Bush/Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations.(before the current administration)
The reason I put Bush/Clinton together was because the further back you go, the worse it gets handled because of technology and less time & investment in pandemic studies.
The reason I put Bush/Clinton together was because the further back you go, the worse it gets handled because of technology and less time & investment in pandemic studies.
Pretty good recent history of WHO and China and the U.S.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...risk-pandemics-like-coronavirus-1497667?amp=1
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...risk-pandemics-like-coronavirus-1497667?amp=1
Ironically it’s the past success of the CDC that’s to blame for most of the testing issues. Massive arrogance problems. They pretty much looked like the gold standard in finding a cure for previous smaller challenges, H1N1 and others. They assumed they would be the world leader again and were unwilling to share credit with each other and private industry who could help. Massive, massive, massive breaches of the public trust at CDC for failure to work together and unwillingness to contribute to team efforts due to personal political bias.
Can’t say I have nor want too. Growing up in Sapulpa was enough for me 
Can’t say I have nor want too. Growing up in Sapulpa was enough for me
Lots of Mexican and Central American immigrants. Most places in town have things written in Spanish. Pork processing is a job no one wants. No one makes a big deal about immigration out there because they have other things to do and because no one is watching.
It’s a cool area. Very windy. I drove through there a few years back and did a mediation over the phone. Very little traffic. One of the last things you see in the state before New Mexico is a little courthouse where the judge probably shows up one day a week. I saw an OSU sticker on a boarded up window.
That said, this concerns me greatly. Access to health care is a real issue and you already have people who try to keep the lowest profile possible.
One of the things I’ve learned from this pandemic is large groups of immigrants work in these meat processing plants. I also assume they live together in the community which helps with the spread. I have no information on the Guymon plant but the problem (if you call it that) at the Missouri plant is every worker was asymptomatic....all 370 cases.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html
Market based medicine. There are limits to the ability of the marketplace to manage a situation like this in guymon. And exposes the problems with a huge country like this trying to have single payer. How do you equalize response and treatment in a pandemic for residents of Brooklyn and Beaver County? West Chester County and the Hopi Nation?
We have the best hospital in the world, arguably, in the Mayo Clinic. It may go bankrupt in a pandemic because it can’t use PPE to perform high profit procedures and the capacity of the hospital can’t handle the CoVid cases it’s so full. If we had single payer it would not have existed at all.
So many moving parts. It’s a lot more complicated than if illegals weren’t illegal, they would have insurance or socialized health care and stroll into a doctor. The American Frontier is still the American Frontier in parts of America. There’s places over there that still only get mail three days a week due to distance. People like you and me see the risks in that and don’t live there. Others see profit by keeping operations there, others just need work. Government can’t solve geography.
We have the best hospital in the world, arguably, in the Mayo Clinic. It may go bankrupt in a pandemic because it can’t use PPE to perform high profit procedures and the capacity of the hospital can’t handle the CoVid cases it’s so full. If we had single payer it would not have existed at all.
So many moving parts. It’s a lot more complicated than if illegals weren’t illegal, they would have insurance or socialized health care and stroll into a doctor. The American Frontier is still the American Frontier in parts of America. There’s places over there that still only get mail three days a week due to distance. People like you and me see the risks in that and don’t live there. Others see profit by keeping operations there, others just need work. Government can’t solve geography.
It’s really hard to get doctors to live in those areas. They spent all that time and money in school and just don’t want to live in a place that doesn’t even have a decent bar. It’s also hard to get reliable insurance coverage and people doing preventive care. I’m not sure care in those places should be viewed in terms of profit. It’s a necessary good.
My eyes about exploded 15 years ago when I went into a gas station out there and everything was in Spanish. Felt like southern New Mexico or I took a wrong turn in Texas. This was before I had satellite radio and back then there was about an hour where you couldn’t find a real radio station.
Thanks for your input. I’m not sure the point of single payer is to equalize opportunities for health care. But it needs to be subsidized heavily in these places or it won’t exist. In many respects, it already is. I think there are more efficient means of achieving that other than generous use of bankruptcy and tax write offs, which is what happens too often in these places. You have people surviving on $9-10,000 a year in this area. They can’t afford a health episode, let alone their whole family going down. These workers provide a valuable service to the economy, nsmrly the bacon we value so much.
Ironic since I was munching on a BLT as I read the last sentence ...
Everyone seems to keep looking at IHME. I am just throwing this out there for a tad bit of variety, as there are numerous models and the IHME is only one.
I am partial to this one, the one generated by the team here at Los Alamos. Admittedly some bias is probably at play because I know some of these people. Anyway, here it is: https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/
It reports the 90% confidence interval, the "average" numbers for the predictions, and as a new prediction is generated weekly, it also tells you how the current prediction for the next week are tracking (I.E., best case, worst case, about average, or "wow, we were way off").
It doesn't presume to know how people will behave when restrictions begin to get lifted, or even what restrictions will be lifted and when. So it runs a sort of Monte Carlo simulation whereby the different possible situations are randomized and then takes the average and reports on the 90% range of all outcomes. This is why the Los Alamos model has one of the largest ranges if you look at longer term predictions. But I still think it is a more realistic and appropriate model because if you are reporting a tight confidence band three months out, it means you are assuming an awful lot of facts not in evidence about what will happen and how people will behave and also how well the virus spreads during summer. And I think it is probably a better one for short and medium term forecasts of up to 6 weeks or so. Also, you can look through the plots and see that the 70% confidence interval is much tighter than the 90% interval.
In short, it has huge confidence intervals for the long term because honestly nobody has a clue what the landscape will look like in August and anyone who says they do is selling snake oil.
Throwing this out there since there is so much "Models are crap" attitude. They (mostly) aren't. But they are poorly understood, and I think this one may be easier to 'get' than most.
EDIT: I read through their methodology more carefully, and it's not Monte Carlo. It seems more like they try to evolve a probability density function (PDF) for deaths and new cases each day. In any case, it doesn't assume any particular reopening strategy or human behavior. I could probably find out more specific details, but I don't want to bug anyone that is actually doing work these days.
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John's Hopkins' looks similar but more polished. Also has a world map and graphs.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
This is the one I have used most.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I don't know how good it is, but it is easy to use. IHME is weird.
One thing I don't understand about the one that I use is why they offer a logarthimic plot for some results. I can't see what a log plot has to due with anything.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I don't know how good it is, but it is easy to use. IHME is weird.
One thing I don't understand about the one that I use is why they offer a logarthimic plot for some results. I can't see what a log plot has to due with anything.
Spent a lot of time in Guymon drilling wells next to pig farms. The smell of the pig crap is deadlier than the covid.
Both sides of the aisle can agree to this. This is why I hate Stillwater so much. Also chicken processing plants in the summer (experienced this in August 1993 in a town called Forrest, Mississippi). Also the cattle feed lots in western Kansas...that is a smell unlike any other.
And since the sense of smell has the closest association with memory, right now I'm gagging in my home office
Speaking of, the infection rate in all places not named NYC is actually going up currently as our dumb a$$ leaders open the petri dish up to save their economies and political careers. This is according to numbers published by Johns Hopkins.
All that smells like money to me.
Right along with the smell of sour crude and west tulsa refineries.
Seriously.. i loved Guymon.
The hispanic population was hard working, family oriented and religiously catholic. They welcomed this gringo into their homes and taught me how to cook goat on a grill made from a plow disc and a propane torch, how to make the perfect pulled pork tamale, and drink home made hooch behind the garage. The local bars didnt play dub step, but the patrons welcomed you no matter your occupation or your race. A good tejano bar is a real fun time if you arent a poser. The people worked hard and played hard. They support their local schools. They rodeoed. The golf course was top notch. If they had a problem, they didnt run to the govt, their neighbors ran to them. The local radio carried the farm and market report 3 times a day, high school sports on friday night and a mix of talk and music the rest of the time.
Guymon was/is small town America and the people that live there some of the best in tje country.
The numbers you’ve seen in the past two weeks have zero to do with “opening up”. Going to need another week before you start seeing that effect...if any.
What these numbers do show is that social distancing has its limitations in areas not hard hit by the virus, we’ve been testing more, and that this is going to be with us at certain levels for months and months to come.
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Looking at their page it looks like almost every state is seeing their % going down. There's not much use in using in for states like OK who tend to report total tests in large batches though. It shows the 7 day average at around 50% for OK because they don't adjust for # of tests. In reality it's around 5% overall and 2% or so over the last 7 days.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
