Here are some Coaches to watch
Bob Davie
Craig Bohl
Rocky Long
Bohl is the only one I can see getting a chance to further his career at a P5...I think that ship has sailed on Bob Davie and Rocky Long. Don't get me wrong, I think they've done a fantastic job where they're at, but I don't think P5s or Notre Dame are looking at older coaches simply because of recruiting. Seems kids want to be wooed by the energetic younger coaches.
Bohl is older but a hot name and with Wentz doing well in his rookie season with Philadelphia, kids will know Bohl can get them to the NFL. And he turned Wyoming around pretty quickly as well. I could see Bohl ending up at a lower tier P5 (Arizona, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa State) but I don't think a school like Oregon is going to come calling.
As for your previous list, I agree with most of it except for Fleck to Notre Dame. I don't think Notre Dame is quite ready to take that chance of jumping in on a guy who has been moderately successful at a G5 and who has only been a HC for 2 years. I see Notre Dame going after, say, Dino Babers at Syracuse (who I think would kill at UND). I like Kiffin to Oregon, a lot. I think the Tennessee and USC gigs probably taught him some valuable lessons about how the HC gig works. Yeah, he was a disaster at those places but probably moreso because he simply wasn't ready for them, especially USC. Had he stayed in Tennessee 2-3 years I think he would have been really successful there.
Houston- not sure where they are going to go but I have a feeling they are going to go after a sitting HC because that's how full of themselves they are. However, IMO, Orlando is a slam dunk choice especially with who they have on the defensive side of the ball. If Applewhite follows Herman to UT (which I guess may be in doubt because Major has some major legal issues pending in Austin). I would then look for Orlando to try and lure Sonny Cumbie away from TCU and give him the full reigns of the offense instead of being a co-OC with the Frogs (and if that fails, I wouldn't be surprised if Kendall Briles ends up there). And don't forget, there are some high $$$ boosters in Houston who are big fans of Art Briles and favor bring CAB back.