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Donnie's Delay

In all honesty, this story just makes Trump's administrative staff sound like contestants on the apprentice. They're all infighting. They're not prioritizing what is most important, and in the end they're not getting things done quickly or efficiently enough. They have no cohesive direction. We make fun of Trump for his "drain the swamp" schtick... but what the administration really seems to be these days is a clusterf&#K.
 
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Typical NYT propaganda....and expected. Our response to date has exceeded that of all of Europe sans Germany. We are smashing even the most optimistic projections of two weeks ago. Yet we flubbed this? The actual numbers tell a completely different story. In the end Trump and the American people will be judged on the actual number of fatalities compared to the projections as well as the deaths per capita compared to our Western European piers. Thus far our response as well as our numbers have exceeded even the most optimistic scenario.
 
lawpoke87 said:
Typical NYT propaganda. Our response to date has exceeded that of all of Europe sans Germany. We are smashing even the most optimistic projections of two weeks ago. Yet we flubbed this? The actual numbers tell a completely different story. In the end Trump and the American people will be judged on the actual number of fatalities compared to the projections as well as the deaths per capita compared to our Western European piers. Thus far our response as well as our numbers have exceeded even the most optimistic scenario.
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I'm sorry lawpoke. On this one, you're completely deluded. We have the most cases of any country in the world. The most deaths of any country in the world and those numbers keep growing even though people are supposedly at home.

If you add up the populations of France, Spain, Germany, Italy and the UK. You get pretty much the exact same population as the US. By comparison. Their current total # of cases is roughly 648K to our 520K. But, that's not taking into account the fact that Spain and Italy are well in front of us in terms of their position on the infection curve, or the fact that they have to deal with more centralized public transit, and larger / more condensed metro areas than we do. Even if our numbers are very slightly better, that doesn't mean our response wasn't abysmal. It just means that we have certain geographic factors that benefit us more than they do, specifically the fact that our major metros tend to be so spread out that infections don't bounce around by train very much.
 
The ending to this story is of course yet to be written. Trump will be judged on the number of fatalities...period. If we end up in the middle of the projection number (150k) he will be judge poorly. If we beat that number by 300% (50k) it will be a huge accomplishment both for him and the American people. I believe our current estimate is 60k deaths. The current death projections for those countries you listed is 100k. Our response will have saved 40k lives compared to that of Western Europe. While every death is heartbreaking, those numbers are to celebrated when compared to the results from our Western European contemporaries.

At the end of the day, Trump will be judged based on performance versus projections and performance compared to that of our western European allies....period.
 
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I think the modeling was way off because it didn’t price in that big ball of burning gas at the center of our solar system. The models all assumed heavy social distancing and conservative estimates still had us up to 150K-200K deaths. I don’t think our actions changed that because those actions were already assumed in the models. I think spring has helped.
 
URedskin54 said:
I think the modeling was way off because it didn’t price in that big ball of burning gas at the center of our solar system. The models all assumed heavy social distancing and conservative estimates still had us up to 150K-200K deaths. I don’t think our actions changed that because those actions were already assumed in the models. I think spring has helped.
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We have a long way to go. We’re only 1/3 of the way there as far as the latest death projections. Also, I wouldn’t give that big ball of fire a lot of credit yet. It’s been pretty cold and damp in the northern part of the country. Places like Texas and California have done well but Florida and Louisiana have really struggled. Not sure we can make much out of the warmer weather yet.

I do believe the models have factored in the warmer weather btw.
 
Florida has done excellent so far. Might not continue but it’s the third largest state and has consistently only had a positive test rate of 10-11%. They have not seen anything approaching capacity in their hospitals.
 
URedskin54 said:
Florida has done excellent so far. Might not continue but it’s the third largest state and has consistently only had a positive test rate of 10-11%. They have not seen anything approaching capacity in their hospitals.
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Especially when you consider the ratio of hospital capacity to number of Floridians over age 70s living in community environments. All those condos and homes are Petri dishes.
 
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I still think Trump has handled this like a nincompoop.(sp?) He is just lucky that the system, or his advisors, or our private industry, or the medical system here, or the temperature and/or timing, has helped keep the death toll lower.(probably some combination of all of the above) We got to see how Europe/China handled it before it began happening here. If Trump is just judged only on the death toll, and it is on the low end here, then he will be one lucky SOB. Regrettably that might have a reward of a second term, which I don't want.(as always)
 
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lawpoke87 said:
The ending to this story is of course yet to be written. Trump will be judged on the number of fatalities...period. If we end up in the middle of the projection number (150k) he will be judge poorly. If we beat that number by 300% (50k) it will be a huge accomplishment both for him and the American people. I believe our current estimate is 60k deaths. The current death projections for those countries you listed is 100k. Our response will have saved 40k lives compared to that of Western Europe. While every death is heartbreaking, those numbers are to celebrated when compared to the results from our Western European contemporaries.

At the end of the day, Trump will be judged based on performance versus projections and performance compared to that of our western European allies....period.
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When he should be judged against countries that actually succeeded in tempering the virus, like SK.

The number of deaths needn't have been nearly as high as it is in our country. He should have acted earlier.
 
astonmartin708 said:
When he should be judged against countries that actually succeeded in tempering the virus, like SK.
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We covered this. We will and should be judge against our cultural and economic contemporaries....Western Europe. You picked the countries. I gave you their numbers.
 
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lawpoke87 said:
We covered this. We will and should be judge against our cultural and economic contemporaries....Western Europe. You picked the countries. I gave you their numbers.
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No, we should be judged against the best outcomes. Not the closest contemporaries. Did we achieve the best outcome? No. Not by a long shot.

I don't judge the Detroit Lions level of success against the Cleveland Browns. I judge it against the New England Patriots.

We are the richest, most economically prepared country in the world for something like this, and we're judging ourselves against people who also did extremely poorly and nation states that have no true federal government (the EU).
 
No. We’re judging apples to apples which is the way it should be. Similar government structures, similar genetics, similar societal norms, and most important similar past experiences. Those countries absolutely have central federal governments btw. Which is why Germany has outperformed the others on your list. SK had the advantage over Europe and the US of going through the SARS pandemic. Thus they were structurally set up. They certainly weren’t prepared for SARS.

I understand you don’t like Trump to be judged by the projections or by our contemporaries due to what appears our success (at least at this point) but we will be measured by similar nations in similar circumstances with similar experiences.

The Lions, Browns and Pats all have similar players, coaches and experiences. Like us and our Western Europe contemporaries.
 
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lawpoke87 said:
No. We’re judging apples to apples which is the way it should be. Similar government structures, similar genetics, similar societal norms, and most important similar past experiences. Those countries absolutely have central federal governments btw. Which is why Germany has outperformed the others on your list. SK had the advantage over Europe and the US of going through the SARS pandemic. Thus they were structurally set up. They certainly weren’t prepared for SARS.

I understand you don’t like Trump to be judged by the projections or by our contemporaries due to what appears our success (at least at this point) but we will be measured by similar nations in similar circumstances with similar experiences.

The Lions, Browns and Pats all have similar players, coaches and experiences. Like us and our Western Europe contemporaries.
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Sounds good. When this is all over I'll get you a participation trophy. "Honorable Mention Response to CoronaVirus" Maybe coach will take you and Donnie out for Ice Cream even though you didn't perform the best.

Western Europe and The US aren't apples to apples as I've mentioned. Giving the President a gold star for 50K+ when we should have had far less than that is asinine. When President Bush's administration does better than you at responding to a SARS outbreak you probably did a :crap:e job.
 
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astonmartin708 said:
Sounds good. When this is all over I'll get you a participation trophy. "Honorable Mention Response to CoronaVirus" Maybe coach will take you and Donnie out for Ice Cream even though you didn't perform the best.
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Guess we will see if the best in the Western Hemisphere and crushing projections is good enough.
 
lawpoke87 said:
Guess we will see if the best in the Western Hemisphere and crushing projections is good enough.
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You keep talking about projections like the projections were all one number. Projections like that are always made with a confidence interval. "As low as ____ to as high as _____ with a median of ____" Let's compare to those numbers. And let's compare to the EARLIEST low estimates... the ones that people were making when they were saying, "IF YOU ACT NOW.... we can keep the cases / deaths as low as ____" Not the ones that were made after we had already failed to act for 3 straight months.
 
Just imagine, if we had closed the borders in January, and directly after we had put in place the two week nationwide quarantine for non-essentials so we could have stopped the spread of asymptomatic transmission. We might all be back in the office right now. We would have taken the same economic hit.
 
astonmartin708 said:
You keep talking about projections like the projections were all one number. Projections like that are always made with a confidence interval. "As low as ____ to as high as _____ with a median of ____" Let's compare to those numbers. And let's compare to the EARLIEST low estimates... the ones that people were making when they were saying, "IF YOU ACT NOW.... we can keep the cases / deaths as low as ____" Not the ones that were made after we had already failed to act for 3 straight months.
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Right. Projections were 100k (low end) to 200k (high end) taking into account social distances. Looking at our friends in Europe those projections look very reasonable. We have simply exceeded them...or likely will.
 
astonmartin708 said:
Just imagine, if we had closed the borders in January, and directly after we had put in place the two week nationwide quarantine for non-essentials so we could have stopped the spread of asymptomatic transmission. We might all be back in the office right now. We would have taken the same economic hit.
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You would have thrown a fit. We tanked the nation without need too. WHO was saying it couldn't be passed from human to human. China was saying it was all over and declaring victory. We hadn't had a pandemic in 120 years. Trump was power hungery and shut the country down on a hunch. CDC certainly wasn't calling for it. In fact, if I remember correctly your posts were about impeachment. Now you come back three months later and want to play "woulda, coulda, shoulda."

Try getting 2, 4, or 8.5 trillion dollars for a disease that we didn't know was even coming here. Try talking automakers into making ventilators. Try closing schools for the rest of the year, closing churches, calling up National Guards from several states. And not one damn case yet. Nancy was saying that this was "Trump's Katrina."

What if we had attacked the Japanese first.
 
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We acted along the lines of our European counterparts. There’s a reason everyone took a similar path. If anything, we were the most aggressive with our travel bans. We’ve certainly handled it better thus far than Europe. Let’s not downplay what we’ve done for political reasons or spite. If the current projections hold true, we’ve done a heck of a job.
 
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astonmartin708 said:
No, we should be judged against the best outcomes. Not the closest contemporaries. Did we achieve the best outcome? No. Not by a long shot.

I don't judge the Detroit Lions level of success against the Cleveland Browns. I judge it against the New England Patriots.

We are the richest, most economically prepared country in the world for something like this, and we're judging ourselves against people who also did extremely poorly and nation states that have no true federal government (the EU).
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That is asenine to ignore the direct cultural differences that play a distinctly direct cause to the way Japan and South Korea handled it. Step back and think about what you are saying. It's about as silly as saying that we are no different than China all things considered.
 
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lawpoke87 said:
Right. Projections were 100k (low end) to 200k (high end) taking into account social distances. Looking at our friends in Europe those projections look very reasonable. We have simply exceeded them...or likely will.
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“The expert consensus is to expect about 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 this year, but the uncertainty around that number is also huge: There’s an 80 percent chance the final number will be between 19,000 and 1.2 million, according to these estimates.”
 
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ctt8410 said:
“The expert consensus is to expect about 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 this year, but the uncertainty around that number is also huge: There’s an 80 percent chance the final number will be between 19,000 and 1.2 million, according to these estimates.”
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Original estimates yes. With the measures we put into place no one expected 1.2M. The 100k-200k range was the model our experts predicting taking into account our quarantine measures. This isn’t anywhere near over btw. We still mIght end up in the middle of that range.
 
Given the number of variables, there’s no way the range is that small. IHME is making a ton of assumptions to reach that point. I realize the primary goal of this board is to goad Aston into saying something dumb, but suggesting a president should be judged against any of these projections is some Clay Travis-level trolling.
 
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ctt8410 said:
Given the number of variables, there’s no way the range is that small. IHME is making a ton of assumptions to reach that point. I realize the primary goal of this board is to goad Aston into saying something dumb, but suggesting a president should be judged against any of these projections is some Clay Travis-level trolling.
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Lol. Don’t believe I said he should (might have). Believe I said he would be judge by the projections and how we did compared to Western Europe. There’s is zero chance Aston won’t be on here condemning Trump if we have 150k deaths come November. It is what it is.
 
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lawpoke87 said:
Typical NYT propaganda....and expected. Our response to date has exceeded that of all of Europe sans Germany. We are smashing even the most optimistic projections of two weeks ago. Yet we flubbed this? The actual numbers tell a completely different story. In the end Trump and the American people will be judged on the actual number of fatalities compared to the projections as well as the deaths per capita compared to our Western European piers. Thus far our response as well as our numbers have exceeded even the most optimistic scenario.
Click to expand...
The good numbers are because the population is taking it seriously and social distancing. The administration has nothing to do with that, and has even undercut it some. And my wife does not have proper PPE when she treats these patients. Why did Trump not order the national stockpile to be restocked after donating half of it to China. I am impressed with the American people. The administration can get bent.
 
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Clong83a said:
The good numbers are because the population is taking it seriously and social distancing. The administration has nothing to do with that, and has even undercut it some. And my wife does not have proper PPE when she treats these patients. Why did Trump not order the national stockpile to be restocked after donating half of it to China. I am impressed with the American people. The administration can get bent.
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I’m not saying you’re incorrect. I am saying that the leaders of countries around the world will be judged by their constituents on the death numbers in their respective countries Good or bad. I’m thankfully the state of Oklahoma had a decent supply of PPE to begin with and has done a fantastic job acquiring additional supplies. Our leaders have done a nice job in that arena.
 
lawpoke87 said:
I’m not saying you’re incorrect. I am saying that the leaders of countries around the world will be judged by their constituents on the death numbers in their respective countries Good or bad. I’m thankfully the state of Oklahoma had a decent supply of PPE to begin with and has done a fantastic job acquiring additional supplies. Our leaders have done a nice job in that arena.
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It’s a red state, which unfortunately makes a difference in who gets their allocation from the stockpile when they ask. That is the kind of thing that should never happen, period.
 
ctt8410 said:
Given the number of variables, there’s no way the range is that small. IHME is making a ton of assumptions to reach that point. I realize the primary goal of this board is to goad Aston into saying something dumb, but suggesting a president should be judged against any of these projections is some Clay Travis-level trolling.
Click to expand...

Hmm, this board existed a decade before Aston came along. He started the thread. Three of the first four posts were his. Seems more like he was goading the board into making him say something dumb.
 
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Clong83a said:
It’s a red state, which unfortunately makes a difference in who gets their allocation from the stockpile when they ask. That is the kind of thing that should never happen, period.
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New York seemed to fair quite well as did California and Washington.
 
lawpoke87 said:
New York seemed to fair quite well as did California and Washington.
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They don’t seem to think so. And Colorado has outright accused the administration of confiscating ventilators they needed. And we have been ignored. Meanwhile, Nebraska and apparently OK have everything they need and ask for.

By the numbers New York got a lot. But when you have half the cases in the country, you should be getting more than other places. Portioning these things out fairly and as appropriately needed is what the federal government is for.

That Navy hospital ship had all of 20 patients on it last week. It was a photo op at best. By any objective measure, this administration has responded to this crisis abhorrently and unevenly at best. They’ve played politics, demanding governors beg and grovel and praise him publicly so that he looks good before giving them a fraction of what they need and refusing to place bulk orders for PPE using the DPA until April. The fact that we are expected to beat the initial estimates of casualties comes in spite of them, not because.
 
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Clong83a said:
They don’t seem to think so. And Colorado has outright accused the administration of confiscating ventilators they needed. And we have been ignored. Meanwhile, Nebraska and apparently OK have everything they need and ask for.
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What major items are NY, Cali and Washington in need of they haven’t received? All have a huge surplus of vents. All received thousands of hospital beds and associated equipment which it turns out wasn’t needed. I understand there is always some politics being played with Dem Governors and a Pub President but looking at the actions of the Fed’s in those places there appears to have been a significant response. Some might argue an over response given the needs in other states.
 
lawpoke87 said:
What major items are NY, Cali and Washington in need of they haven’t received? All have a huge surplus of vents. All received thousands of hospital beds and associated equipment which it turns out wasn’t needed. I understand there is always some politics being played with Dem Governors and a Pub President but looking at the actions of the Fed’s in those places there appears to have been a significant response. Some might argue an over response given the needs in other states.
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I don’t live there. But I know their governors are pissed and so is mine. And I know my wife is unprotected due to massive and preventable shortages of PPE. So I tend to believe them when they say they aren’t getting what they need. Vents are only part of it.
 
Early on, Nebraska took 47 cruise ship people into the Creighton medical system. They were finally dismissed. When you take extra maybe you get extra. It sounds small now, but at the time it was news. The Nebraska National Guard is providing aid to farming towns who have little medical facilities. I am sure New Mexico also has special problems. Tulsa seems to be in pretty good shape and posters on this board and their families are providing vital service to those at risk.
 
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lawpoke87 said:
He certainly sounds pissed

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492324-california-governor-praises-trumps-efforts-to-help-state-amid?amp


I am sorry for your wife’s situation. My daughter is a nurse here in Tulsa and I know how I would feel if she didn’t have the supplies she needed.
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Ha! Because Trump said he would only give anything to governor's that were "appreciative". Newsome received the message and kissed his arse. And still didn't get everything he needed. Which led then to this:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...s-independence-from-trump-s-coronavirus-plans
 
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