Democrat Horse Race

[ba11game]

Hello there. I have not lurked down here in the swamp for many years. I'm not going to try and start a big political argument. I just think the race for the Democratic nomination is interesting like a sporting event and would like to discuss it as such.
I don't personally care. His Trolliness God Emperor Trump is my guy. (Sorry, I won't mention him again except in the context of the Dem race).

Here is what I'm seeing. It looks a whole lot like the GOP in 2016. Back then, it was Trump supporters, and the Never Trump crew. None of the others ever really had a strong following. Cruz had some following, but he was never really a contender.

My rundown on the candidates at this point:

Bernie Sanders:
The only one with any true following. He holds rallies and lots of people show up. Sound familiar? The others only have support because of perceived electabilty and identity politics. It's really Bernie vs. Never Bernie.
Bernie doesn't scare me, but some of his followers do. I worry about what might happen when he loses. I think the Democrats would be better off getting out of Bernie's way and let Trump take him out. I hope nothing happens, but if Bernie gets blocked by the DNC again I wouldn't be surprised to see 1968 all over again at their convention. This Bernie's last chance. He is already the oldest presidential candidate ever. If he goes third party, the Never Bernie candidate will finish third.

Joe Biden:
The phantom frontrunner. One of the "electability" candidates. Now that's funny, I don't care who you are. Imagine a PAC ad that's a montage of Joe fondling young girls. He has done nothing but defend that creepy behavior. There is no spotlight on it for now, but there would be in the general. He is a loser even without the Ukraine business.

Elizabeth Warren:
She's not a man. That's all she has. Bernie has out-progressived her. She did a good job of taking down Bloomberg in the last debate. If she can come on strong in tomorrow's debate she may survive Super Tuesday.

Amy Klobuchar:
She's not a man and she's not as shrill as Elizabeth Warren. For better or worse, how you look and how you sound means plenty in presidential politics. She impresses me as spineless. In the last debate, she crumbled when she was asked about the Mexican president's name and was practically sobbing when she accused Pete of calling her dumb.

Pete Buttigieg:
This guy is kind of interesting. He straddles the electability and identity politics angles. He is a slick talker who would carry the shield of gayness into the White House. As all Obama critics were called racist, they would all be homophobes under Pete. I just don't see it as his time. The cult of Bernie is too strong and Bloomberg has too much money to burn.

Mike Bloomberg:
In spite of his universally panned performance in the last debate, he will be in it as long as he wants to waste his money. He is trying to step up as the electable guy as Biden fades back to where he really always was. I believe he will be in it until Bernie closes the deal, if he can. If he can't, Bloomberg is the likely nominee barring...

Other:
This is not a strong field. There have to be plenty of Democrat voters that wish they had another option. Another rich white guy, Tom Steyer, is polling well in SC. Somebody with big name recognition could still step in, but it would be just to try and take the Never Bernie vote from Bloomberg.

 

[aTUfan]

you could get into trouble with peta by comparing dems to horses.

 

[ba11game]

My apologies to the animal kingdom. At least I didn't call anybody a horse-faced lesbian.

 

[aTUfan]

How many cogressional seats did Bloomburg claim he bought? 20?
Wow!!!!

 

[ba11game]

How many cogressional seats did Bloomburg claim he bought? 20?
Wow!!!!

I haven't watched much of the debate yet. I tried before the game, but could only take a few minutes. I did see this in the highlights. What's the big deal? I thought everybody knew that already.

 

[ba11game]

Big day tomorrow and lots of late breaking developments. Biden got a big win in SC and Pete, Amy and that guy that was never really in it got out. Amy is endorsing Biden.
Those three account for 16.9% of the latest RCP poll average. Consolidation is coming, but we won't see the full effect tomorrow because so many people vote early these days. Pete also hasn't endorsed anyone yet. I'm guessing if he does, it will be Biden.
I think it's going to be a big day for Bernie. Bloomberg will get enough delegates to keep wasting his money. The democrats would be better off if he would go back to using his money to buy house seats. Biden will get enough to think he still has a chance.
That leaves Warren as the one most likely to drop out next. That bet I made last year that the Democrat nominee would not be a white man is not looking good right now. Who would have guessed last summer that it would boil down to a race between three white guys in their late 70s.

 

[aTUfan]

Bloomburg has spent a lot of money to this point. How many delegates will he been able to buy tomorrow.

 

[astonmartin708]

Big day tomorrow and lots of late breaking developments. Biden got a big win in SC and Pete, Amy and that guy that was never really in it got out. Amy is endorsing Biden.
Those three account for 16.9% of the latest RCP poll average. Consolidation is coming, but we won't see the full effect tomorrow because so many people vote early these days. Pete also hasn't endorsed anyone yet. I'm guessing if he does, it will be Biden.
I think it's going to be a big day for Bernie. Bloomberg will get enough delegates to keep wasting his money. The democrats would be better off if he would go back to using his money to buy house seats. Biden will get enough to think he still has a chance.
That leaves Warren as the one most likely to drop out next. That bet I made last year that the Democrat nominee would not be a white man is not looking good right now. Who would have guessed last summer that it would boil down to a race between three white guys in their late 70s.

Damn boomers takin our jobs.

 

[aTUfan]

Damn boomers takin our jobs.

NO, boomers have retired; after creating the things that make your life better.

 

[aTUfan]

After 9/11, I thought the biggest threat to our culture, country and constitition was radical Islam.

I was wrong. it's Democrats.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

I wish they would all quit and get down to the two it's going to be eventually. The two of 'em could just duke it out mano a mano. I'm hoping Biden will take out Sanders when it get's down to just the two of em.

 

[TUMe]

Agree.

 

[astonmartin708]

I wish they would all quit and get down to the two it's going to be eventually. The two of 'em could just duke it out mano a mano. I'm hoping Biden will take out Sanders when it get's down to just the two of em.

Would you consider going Biden over Trump?

 

[ba11game]

Biden had a big jump in the last minute polls. That's after early voting though. It's going to be an interesting night. If Warren drops, Trump will be the youngest candidate. I heard that Bloomberg hasn't bought any TV time for any of the primaries after today. We could very well be looking at just Sanders and Biden tomorrow.

 

[ba11game]

Biden is also a big favorite in the betting odds right now, a position held by Sanders just a day or two ago.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

I wouldn't consider it, I'd probably take anybody over trump, except Sanders & Warren.

 

[astonmartin708]

I wouldn't consider it, I'd probably take anybody over trump, except Sanders & Warren.

I know that they share some of the same policies. Though I don't think most people would consider Warren a socialist like Bernie. Which are the ones that you most dislike for both?

(Not out to change your mind, just get an opinion)

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Her policies against businesses, her support of the green deal, her support of 'free' education, etc.

 

[aTUfan]

I can live with either biden or sanders as the democrat nominee.

Against Trump they will be big losers.

 

[astonmartin708]

I can live with either biden or sanders as the democrat nominee.

Against Trump they will be big losers.

Sounds like you don't think any Democrat has a sliver of a chance at beating Trump. Not the moderates, not the progressives, not the socialists.

 

[astonmartin708]

Speaking of horse races, it looks like the moderate is going to take quite a few delegates on Super Tuesday. Biden took significant majorities in Virginia and Oklahoma, he's doing pretty well in Tennessee and North Carolina, and early signs in Arkansas / Alabama see him doing well. Colorado looks like it could go to Sanders. Vermont goes to Bernie of course. California still hasn't started reporting yet.

https://kevinlwright.github.io/SuperTuesM/

 

[lawpoke87]

Warren finished third tonight in her home state. She has to be done....right ?

 

[astonmartin708]

Warren finished third tonight in her home state. She has to be done....right ?

I’m sure she is. My guess is Biden wanted her to stay in to siphon votes from Bernie

 

[lawpoke87]

I’m sure she is. My guess is Biden wanted her to stay in to siphon votes from Bernie

Barring some unforeseen event or revelation it certainly appears Biden will now win the nomination. I saw this morning that anti-dairy people tried to storm the stage during his speech last night. WTH are anti-dairy people?

 

[astonmartin708]

Barring some unforeseen event or revelation it certainly appears Biden will now win the nomination. I saw this morning that anti-dairy people tried to storm the stage during his speech last night. WTH are anti-dairy people?

They prefer to be called "Lactose Intolerant"

 

[TU_BLA]

Barring some unforeseen event or revelation it certainly appears Biden will now win the nomination. I saw this morning that anti-dairy people tried to storm the stage during his speech last night. WTH are anti-dairy people?

Climate. There's a strong link to cattle herds the methane they release plus the grass they eat and the clear cutting of forests to create grazing areas, there's a pretty strong impact on the atmosphere and subsequent climate change.

Weird they target Biden because Vermont is a dairy state. But I don't think Biden has been vocally strong enough about climate change and proposing measures to counter.

 

[TU_BLA]

Warren finished third tonight in her home state. She has to be done....right ?

More shocking than Biden being a big winner last night is the number of votes and non-votes thrown to others in the GOP primaries. Of course several states didn't allow GOP primaries to protect Trump (not that he would have lost a primary challenge). But being virtually unopposed, there were many states where he barely reached 90% as the only choice. In one state I believe 10% of GOP voters did not vote in the primary or were given a choice of "Uncommitted". I think they said in Tulsa Co, he only got 88% of the GOP vote. That's pretty low for an incumbent in the WH with no true alternative choices. I think in past cases, on either side, you typically see closer to 95%. (Granted, the voter turnout for the GOP primaries in many states was pretty low because of the foregone conclusion aspect).

 

[lawpoke87]

More shocking than Biden being a big winner last night is the number of votes and non-votes thrown to others in the GOP primaries. Of course several states didn't allow GOP primaries to protect Trump (not that he would have lost a primary challenge). But being virtually unopposed, there were many states where he barely reached 90% as the only choice. In one state I believe 10% of GOP voters did not vote in the primary or were given a choice of "Uncommitted". I think they said in Tulsa Co, he only got 88% of the GOP vote. That's pretty low for an incumbent in the WH with no true alternative choices. I think in past cases, on either side, you typically see closer to 95%. (Granted, the voter turnout for the GOP primaries in many states was pretty low because of the foregone conclusion aspect).

Those numbers roughly match his approval rating among Pubs. Not really surprised by that at all. Obama received 57% of the vote in the 2012 Oklahoma Democratic primary btw

 

[TU_BLA]

Those numbers roughly match his approval rating among Pubs. Not really surprised by that at all. Obama received 57% of the vote in the 2012 Oklahoma Democratic primary btw

I'll be honest, I can't remember if I voted in the 2012 primary mostly because Obama was unopposed. I didn't vote for Obama in the 2008 primary (I voted for Wesley Clark). And I wouldn't necessarily consider myself to fall in line with OK Democrats as I'm not from OK and my political views are more shaped by growing up in Massachusetts.

I'm not saying Obama did everything perfectly. And it's OK to disagree with his political stances but I feel a lot of the opposition he faced was not political but based on race and misinformation about his citizenship and religious affiliation. This was evident in 2008 when McCain told a woman to essentially shut up, she was wrong, that Obama was a Muslim and terrorist. Trump's opposition was clearly rooted in racist and bigoted hate as evidenced by the 8 years of hateful birther tweets.

I think the numbers point to a little erosion of the Trump base from even 2 years ago. And Maine just had an election for a state rep (or senator) in a district that has been a strong GOP seat for many years (northern Maine, very rural). Trump won that precinct by 8% in 2016 and the seat just went Dem. The political analyst who was reporting it mentioned this as devastating news for Susan Collins as this would be one of her strongest areas of support normally. We're seeing a lot of that all over the country. Heck, even one recent poll had Abby Broyles within the MOE for Inhofe's Senate seat. (honestly if the GOP wanted to hold that seat they would have primaried Inhofe. He's senile and out of touch.) Maybe I'm just being hopeful. I really just want a return to sanity and civility in our political process instead of the Trump-thuggery and his push to an authoritarian state (he's already said he's not sure he will leave office if he doesn't win the election because he suspects there will be massive voter fraud.)

 

[lawpoke87]

I've long stated that I would support a moderate Dem in 2020 if one were on the ballot.

 

[TU_BLA]

I've long stated that I would support a moderate Dem in 2020 if one were on the ballot.

Well, Biden is pretty close. If the nomination goes to the convention, he will be the nominee. The GOP will paint him as a liberal (of course the current GOP would consider Reagan liberal by not being conservative enough). Biden is a true old-school moderate Dem.

 

[lawpoke87]

Well, Biden is pretty close. If the nomination goes to the convention, he will be the nominee. The GOP will paint him as a liberal (of course the current GOP would consider Reagan liberal by not being conservative enough). Biden is a true old-school moderate Dem.

Yup.....hoping he doesn't veer too far to the left in trying to satisfy the vocal left wing of the party. Fingers are crossed.

 

[TU_BLA]

Yup.....hoping he doesn't veer too far to the left in trying to satisfy the vocal left wing of the party. Fingers are crossed.

He's going to say a lot of stuff to gain Bernie's voters. Dems cannot win w/o consolidating their traditional base and the millennial voters who support Bernie (of course millennials turned out at 13% yesterday so those lamenting that Bernie didn't do better in places like TX need only to point the finger at their lazy ass peers not going and voting).

I'd be interested at Biden's take on ACA and what needs to be done to it to make it more efficient, actually lower costs/premiums across the board, etc. Biden being from Delaware is in the heart of DuPont territory and their numerous big pharma connections.

 

[astonmartin708]

Yup.....hoping he doesn't veer too far to the left in trying to satisfy the vocal left wing of the party. Fingers are crossed.

I looked at his policy platform today and it looks quite Vanilla compared to the left wing. I've always called Biden Vanilla Ice Cream.... partially because it's probably the only thing he can eat without his dentures.

His policies seem to be trying to address the left's concerns, but only going 1/4 to 1/2 of the way to what the progressives / socialists want. On health care, he's trying to set up a public option, but not mandate that everyone be included on it.

 

[TU_BLA]

I looked at his policy platform today and it looks quite Vanilla compared to the left wing. I've always called Biden Vanilla Ice Cream.... partially because it's probably the only thing he can eat without his dentures.

His policies seem to be trying to address the left's concerns, but only going 1/4 to 1/2 of the way to what the progressives / socialists want. On health care, he's trying to set up a public option, but not mandate that everyone be included on it.

Which is funny...Biden's policies are very in line with what Obama's were and there are some right wing evangelicals who thought Obama was so far to the left, they actually claimed he was Satan and went through the entire translation of him being left-wing AND left-handed and the word left in Latin is "sinister", so Obama was an evil liberal. (Dead serious, I had someone go through this entire rant on my Facebook wall). Obama maybe went bullish to the left on a couple of things...the ACA being one, but for the most part was pretty grounded in the middle. He even enforced then current immigration policy it just wasn't front and center like it is now showing ICE as the current day Gestapo.

 

[lawpoke87]

Much easier to enforce immigration laws and hold people in cages when the media is your advocate. Most of Biden's policy are fairly reasonable. The $15 an hour federal minimum wage is idiotic and will further damage small businesses across the heartland.

 

[astonmartin708]

Much easier to enforce immigration laws and hold people in cages when the media is your advocate. Most of Biden's policy are fairly reasonable. The $15 an hour federal minimum wage is idiotic and will further damage small businesses across the heartland.

Has nothing to do with it. Fox News could have called the administration out on it, it's just that their viewership probably would have supported it and they didn't want to make Obama seem more centrist.

 

[lawpoke87]

Has nothing to do with it. Fox News could have called the administration out on it, it's just that their viewership probably would have supported it and they didn't want to make Obama seem more centrist.

Has everything to do with it. Not a single media outlet had an issue with it then. Why.....because of their alliance with who was sitting in the White House. Fox didn't cover it because it didn't see a big story. Others didn't cover it because it would have made Obama look bad.

 

[URedskin54]

Obama was in no way a centrist in 2012, and he was shameless. "I can't just change the immigration laws myself. I'm not an emperor." Then a couple years later "I have a pen and a phone." In the 8 years since, the activist base of the party has gone so insane that he now seems moderate by comparison. Hell, everyone talks about how Donald Trump has ended civility and says things beyond the pale, but even back then Dems were referring to Republicans in congress as terrorists and Biden told black people that Mitt Romney was going to put them back in chains.

If Biden is able to successfully turn Bernie into the only good commie, there's a pretty decent chance I vote for him, but I'll feel gross afterward.

 

[ba11game]

I've got to give the Democrats credit. They did a great job of circling the wagons around Biden. By the time all the delegates are allocated, it should be virtually a tie with Biden and Sanders. Bloomberg is gone, but Warren is still hopelessly hanging on last I heard. Biden needs her to stay in as long as possible to maximize his chances.
I am not buying the electability angle. Bernie is their only candidate with a following. The real reason the Democrats don't want Bernie is because he is not a "made man" in the party. Same reason the GOP didn't want Trump in 2016. Biden is where he is right now simply because he's not Bernie and he's not Trump and practically everyone else has conveniently dropped out.
Biden now has a substantial lead in the betting odds, but I don't think this is over yet. Biden is still Biden. He looked like a shouting robot in his victory speech last night. Oddly enough, this is an improvement over regular-guy Joe, who just looks like an idiot challenging people to pushup contests.
If Biden is the nominee, they will have to hide him as much as possible like they did with Hillary. The more people see of him, the less they will trust him. Even without the Ukraine mess and making excuses for fondling girls (those won't be brought up until the general election), the dementia is going to scare voters off.
Bernie can still win this and I think the Democrats will be better off if he does. Let the Bernistas riot after Trump beats him instead of at their convention.
Another problem if Biden is the nominee is the possibility of Bernie running as an independent. It's not like Bernie can afford to wait another four years. He's already the oldest presidential candidate ever. I think everyone agrees that if that happens it will be a landslide for Trump.