This has been a superbly productive offseason for the Buffalo Bills, and it's almost impossible to criticize the work of Rex Ryan, Doug Whaley, Jim Overdorf, and certainly free-spending owners Terry and Kim Pegula.
Until now.
The exorbitant offer sheet presented to tight end Charles Clay Tuesday night feels like an ill-advised move because I just don't believe this player is worth the drain on the payroll should Miami not match the offer - which it won't - and Clay becomes a Bill.
There is a glaring hole on the Buffalo roster at tight end. Now that Scott Chandler has been released and signed by the Patriots, and Lee Smith bolted to Oakland via free agency, the only viable leftovers are Marqueis Gray and Chris Gragg. Clay is an upgrade over all of them, but at the price tag it will cost, I have some reservations.
Clay was a sixth-round draft choice out of Tulsa in 2011 by the Dolphins, originally thought of as an H-back type player who could play some tight end and fullback. He's had one really good year, 2013, when he set career highs with 69 receptions for 759 yards and six touchdowns, numbers that would have bettered or matched the Bills' team records by a tight end.
Last year Clay battled injuries and caught 58 passes for 605 yards and three TDs. During his first two years, his combined line was 34 catches for 245 yards and five TDs. That's what $38 million over five years, including $20 million guaranteed, buys?
The most catches Clay has made in a game are seven, accomplished four times. In those four games, his yardage totals were 97, 80, 31 and 45, and he had two TDs among those 28 catches.
In 58 career games, only twice has he surpassed 100 yards, a career-best 114 on six catches last year against Minnesota, and a 109-yard performance on five receptions against Indianapolis in 2013. He has only two games of between 90-99 yards, and has scored 14 touchdowns.
I was never enamored with Chandler, and here's why: 65 games with the Bills, only two of which he caught at least seven passes. He had one 100-yard game (last year against the Patriots, his new team), and 17 touchdowns. Pretty similar to Clay, and you can argue that Chandler played with worse quarterbacks.
Whether Clay plays for the Bills or Dolphins, he will now be the fourth-highest-paid tight end in terms of total contract size behind Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Julius Thomas (Jaguars) and Jimmy Graham (Seahawks).
Making a comparison of those three players to Clay is difficult because the quarterbacks they played with are three of the greatest in NFL history, all future first-ballot Hall of Famers: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. So yes, that gives them a huge advantage over Clay, who played with Ryan Tannehill.
But let's do it anyway:
• In 65 career games, Gronkowski caught seven passes or more 17 times, he has 21 games of at least 90 yards receiving, 15 of those over 100, and he has 54 touchdowns.
• In just 36 games with his old team, Denver, Thomas had only two games of seven catches or more, and four games of 90 yards or more, but he has already caught 24 TD passes.
• In 78 career games, Graham caught at least seven passes 22 times (five with at least 10 catches), he has 14 games of at least 90 yards, and has 51 touchdowns.
Clay is not in the same playmaking ballpark as any of those three, but according to analytics site ProFootballFocus.com, Clay is a better blocker. Among tight ends who played at least 50 percent of their teams' offensive snaps, he ranked eighth in PFF's run-blocking metric while Graham was 10th, Gronkowski was 15th, Thomas 16th, and Chandler 19th. In PFF's overall tight end grades which factor in several statistics and performance grades, Gronkowski ranked No. 1, Graham was 10th, Thomas 11th, Clay 12th, and Chandler 24th.
Again, Clay will be a better option than anyone Buffalo has had on its roster recently, and maybe ever as tight end has been a history-long black hole in Buffalo.
But if you're a Bills fan, you have to hope that this contract doesn't wind up being a detriment to a team that still has needs this year on the offensive line and at safety. And, perhaps more disconcerting, how it might hamstring the Bills in the future when they will still be in need of a true franchise quarterback, and will also have to find the money to re-sign Marcell Dareus and Stephone Gilmore.
Democrat and Chronicle
Until now.
The exorbitant offer sheet presented to tight end Charles Clay Tuesday night feels like an ill-advised move because I just don't believe this player is worth the drain on the payroll should Miami not match the offer - which it won't - and Clay becomes a Bill.
There is a glaring hole on the Buffalo roster at tight end. Now that Scott Chandler has been released and signed by the Patriots, and Lee Smith bolted to Oakland via free agency, the only viable leftovers are Marqueis Gray and Chris Gragg. Clay is an upgrade over all of them, but at the price tag it will cost, I have some reservations.
Clay was a sixth-round draft choice out of Tulsa in 2011 by the Dolphins, originally thought of as an H-back type player who could play some tight end and fullback. He's had one really good year, 2013, when he set career highs with 69 receptions for 759 yards and six touchdowns, numbers that would have bettered or matched the Bills' team records by a tight end.
Last year Clay battled injuries and caught 58 passes for 605 yards and three TDs. During his first two years, his combined line was 34 catches for 245 yards and five TDs. That's what $38 million over five years, including $20 million guaranteed, buys?
The most catches Clay has made in a game are seven, accomplished four times. In those four games, his yardage totals were 97, 80, 31 and 45, and he had two TDs among those 28 catches.
In 58 career games, only twice has he surpassed 100 yards, a career-best 114 on six catches last year against Minnesota, and a 109-yard performance on five receptions against Indianapolis in 2013. He has only two games of between 90-99 yards, and has scored 14 touchdowns.
I was never enamored with Chandler, and here's why: 65 games with the Bills, only two of which he caught at least seven passes. He had one 100-yard game (last year against the Patriots, his new team), and 17 touchdowns. Pretty similar to Clay, and you can argue that Chandler played with worse quarterbacks.
Whether Clay plays for the Bills or Dolphins, he will now be the fourth-highest-paid tight end in terms of total contract size behind Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Julius Thomas (Jaguars) and Jimmy Graham (Seahawks).
Making a comparison of those three players to Clay is difficult because the quarterbacks they played with are three of the greatest in NFL history, all future first-ballot Hall of Famers: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. So yes, that gives them a huge advantage over Clay, who played with Ryan Tannehill.
But let's do it anyway:
• In 65 career games, Gronkowski caught seven passes or more 17 times, he has 21 games of at least 90 yards receiving, 15 of those over 100, and he has 54 touchdowns.
• In just 36 games with his old team, Denver, Thomas had only two games of seven catches or more, and four games of 90 yards or more, but he has already caught 24 TD passes.
• In 78 career games, Graham caught at least seven passes 22 times (five with at least 10 catches), he has 14 games of at least 90 yards, and has 51 touchdowns.
Clay is not in the same playmaking ballpark as any of those three, but according to analytics site ProFootballFocus.com, Clay is a better blocker. Among tight ends who played at least 50 percent of their teams' offensive snaps, he ranked eighth in PFF's run-blocking metric while Graham was 10th, Gronkowski was 15th, Thomas 16th, and Chandler 19th. In PFF's overall tight end grades which factor in several statistics and performance grades, Gronkowski ranked No. 1, Graham was 10th, Thomas 11th, Clay 12th, and Chandler 24th.
Again, Clay will be a better option than anyone Buffalo has had on its roster recently, and maybe ever as tight end has been a history-long black hole in Buffalo.
But if you're a Bills fan, you have to hope that this contract doesn't wind up being a detriment to a team that still has needs this year on the offensive line and at safety. And, perhaps more disconcerting, how it might hamstring the Bills in the future when they will still be in need of a true franchise quarterback, and will also have to find the money to re-sign Marcell Dareus and Stephone Gilmore.
Democrat and Chronicle
