2018 Player Discussion Thread: Junior Etou

[ctt8410]

There's less than a month 'til the season starts and the top thread on this board is an argument about whether 2016 was really just a Black Mirror episode, so how about some actual discussion about the upcoming season? I'm trying out a new projection system, so I'll throw out some projected stats for each player that can hopefully serve as jumping-off point for discussion.

Senior F Junior Etou

On a roster full of unknowns, Etou entered last season as the most important. A top 150 recruit out of high school, he had struggled to average 6 points and 6 rebounds in his first 2 years at Rutgers despite starting 51 games, but was already penciled into the Tulsa starting lineup after 7 of the top 8 scorers from the previous year graduated. He stepped up to the task immediately, logging 20 points and 10 rebounds in the season opener. And while the supporting cast around him wilted in conference play, Etou upped his game even further finishing 4th in the conference in 3PT%, 4th in DR%, and 7th in FT%.

Despite his status as the best player on a mediocre team, Etou finished just 5th on the team in shots per minute played. This year, as the lone projected senior in the starting lineup, it seems likely that Etou will be asked to increase his volume, which often leads to a decrease in efficiency as the player is forced into taking more bad shots. That said, I fully expect Etou to match or exceed last year's overall production across the board. And if he cuts down on the turnovers, you're looking at an all-conference player in his senior year.

Random stat: Etou's 42.7% was the highest 3-pt% on more than 10 attempts in a season since Ray Reese made 46.4% as a sophomore.

2017 stats: 29mpg, 12.6ppg, 6.7rpg, 1.3apg, 0.5spg, 2.5topg, 0.1bpg, 53.4% 2PT, 42.7% 3PT, 76.7% FT
2018 proj.: 31mpg, 12.9ppg, 6.7rpg, 1.9apg, 0.7spg, 2.7topg, 0.1bpg, 48.1% 2PT, 41.5% 3PT, 73.6% FT

 

[nevadanatural]

A thought then a question. While I think Etou will have more expectations this season as the go to guy I also think the addition of Scott and Jeffries as well as Igbanu developing a shot from deep it may actually allow him to have more open chances. By conference time last year no one was guarding Birt.

Looking at your stat projections I was wondering what the reason was for projecting a lower FT%? With the assumption that greater responsibility and more minutes might require taking more guarded shots I can understand the potential decrease in 2pt and 3pt percentages but that shouldn’t affect FT%. Are you using other factors such as exhaustion?

 

[astonmartin708]

Etou is deadly as a stretch 4 off the catch and shoot. He's really good at trailing the break by a tiny bit and hitting that shot when the defense sags off in case he drives. He has a talented driving skillset, but he needs to really focus on taking care of the ball when he gets into the lane (as do several other players on the team). Hopefully that topg stat goes down rather than up. (with extra reliance on him I think you're probably right that it goes up just a tad though).

I could actually see his rebounds dipping just a bit as Haith has said that after the departure of Magnay, that he's going to encourage some of the big men to focus on boxing their opponent out while our larger guards can come in and grab more rebounds. He won't be competing with Magnay or Edogi for those boards anymore though so we'll see what happens.

 

[ctt8410]

A thought then a question. While I think Etou will have more expectations this season as the go to guy I also think the addition of Scott and Jeffries as well as Igbanu developing a shot from deep it may actually allow him to have more open chances. By conference time last year no one was guarding Birt.

Looking at your stat projections I was wondering what the reason was for projecting a lower FT%? With the assumption that greater responsibility and more minutes might require taking more guarded shots I can understand the potential decrease in 2pt and 3pt percentages but that shouldn’t affect FT%. Are you using other factors such as exhaustion?

I agree that a more balanced offense could help him get better looks. I'm cautiously optimistic that will happen and he'll be more like a 15+ ppg guy with shooting percentages matching last year's breakout.

On the free throws, it's also accounting for the 65% that he shot as a freshman/sophomore. His career FT% is 72%, so it's giving more weight to last year, but assuming he's not quite a ~77% true talent FT shooter.