USA TODAY Sports projects the order of finish in the AAC and analyzes each team.
1. Connecticut Huskies
► What to watch: A year ago, the Huskies needed Jalen Adams’ buzzer-beating heave to extend their season and earn the AAC tournament automatic bid into the NCAA tournament. There will be no excuse if such extreme late-season moments are necessary to secure a Big Dance ticket this season. UConn returns the most talent in the league — guards Adams and Rodney Purvis highlight a solid core of returnees — and brings in a freshman class that ranks among the top 10 in the country. Dynamic playmaking guard Alterique Gilbert will be a freshman to watch.
► Bottom line: In theory, Kevin Ollie shouldn’t have much to prove. It was only three seasons ago that he led the Huskies to a national title in his first season as a head coach. But after two underachieving seasons, Ollie should be motivated to produce a validating one in Year 4. With the list of legitimate AAC title contenders as short as it has ever been, a regular-season conference crown would be a natural place for that validation to begin. The talent is there for the Huskies to find later success beyond the AAC, but the preseason favorites should first make sure to take care of business in conference play.
2. Cincinnati Bearcats
► What to watch: Dramatic late-season moments on the court gave way to tense times in Bearcats country this offseason, as coach Mick Cronin experienced a prolonged flirtation with the vacant UNLV coaching job. In the end, Cronin decided to return and will lead a Cincinnati team that is an AAC title contender. Troy Caupain (13 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.8 apg), a first-team all-AAC performer a season ago, leads the way. Fellow returnees Gary Clark (10.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Jacob Evans, along with 6-5 freshman guard Jarron Cumberland, will look to spark an offense that could be the best Cronin has coached in three seasons at Cincinnati.
► Bottom line: For six seasons running, Cincinnati has possessed one of the 25 most efficient defenses in college basketball. With Cronin and his trademark intensity back on the sideline, there’s no reason to expect any deviation from that grinding Bearcats identity. The potential new wrinkle lies on the other end of the floor, where Cronin owns as wide an array of offensive talent as he ever has. If that ability can come together in a meaningful way, the Bearcats could find traction as a national sleeper.
3. Houston Cougars
► What to watch: All-AAC first-teamer Devonta Pollard is gone, but the Cougars return a number of key contributors from a team that won nine of 11 games in January and February to surge into NCAA tournament consideration. Damyean Dotson (13.9ppg), who has played at Oregon and Houston, will lead the postseason push, with backcourt help sure to arrive from returnees Rob Gray Jr. and Galen Robinson Jr.
► Bottom line: After the program had years of dormancy, Kelvin Sampson has breathed life into it. The recent history still sits very much at odds with the larger back story, however, as the Cougars program has five times as many Final Four appearances in its history as it does NCAA tournament bids in the last 23 years. But it feels like things are changing. Whether the Cougars break into the field of 68 in March will depend largely on whether they find necessary improvement on the defensive end.
4. Southern Methodist Mustangs
► What to watch: No team in the AAC experienced more change from last season to this than the Mustangs. Gone are Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown and AAC player of the year Nic Moore, along with key contributors Markus Kennedy and Jordan Tolbert. One positive development: SMU is again eligible for postseason play after the NCAA banned it last season because of multiple rules violations. Expectations are lower this season, but the Mustangs are plenty dangerous enough to take advantage of the lifted ban.
► Bottom line: The Brown era heightened both interest and instability at SMU. Tim Jankovich might miss some of the departed talent but also will surely seek a smoother future course. Relying on sophomore guard Shake Milton and senior forward Ben Moore, two potential all-league players, will ease his transition. Another potential source of early assistance for Jankovich? Help from a three-man freshman class that includes two Aussie imports (6-11 forward Harry Froling and 6-5 guard Tom Wilson).
5. Temple Owls
► What to watch: Never count out a Fran Dunphy-coached team. This lesson was taught again last year, when Temple surged out of an uninspiring non-conference season to capture an entirely unexpected AAC regular-season title. The loss of unanimous all-AAC first-teamer Quenton DeCosey, along with two fellow senior starters, again leaves Dunphy with comfortably low expectations.
► Bottom line: Senior Josh Brown (8.3 pgg, 4.9 apg) led the Owls in minutes a season ago and again will be relied upon heavily. Obi Enechionyia, a 6-9 forward, made 56 three-pointers last year and should only see his usage increase in the absence of DeCosey. Dunphy brings in a talented class of newcomers. Whether or not the freshmen contribute, don’t sleep on the Owls.
6. Memphis Tigers
► What to watch: With Josh Pastner gone and Tubby Smith in his place, this Memphis season already feels different. If all goes as planned, the talented but underachieving teams of recent Memphis past will look nothing like Smith’s first group of Tigers. There is still talent here — Dedric Lawson (15.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5 apg) is a prime example of it — but Smith’s history of success and knack for getting the most out of his teams bodes well for the present and the future.
► Bottom line: Hopes should be high for the Tigers to play tougher and smarter under Smith, but the uncomfortable reality is that this is the least-talented team Memphis has fielded in quite some time. Four of the top five scorers from a season ago are gone, and that group couldn’t even manage a winning conference record. The 6-9 Lawson and his brother, K.J., a 6-7 guard-forward, will give Smith a chance to be competitive, but don’t be surprised if his first year is a struggle.
7. Central Florida Knights
► What to watch: The Knights have a new coach — former Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins — but return almost every contributor from a year ago. Five of UCF’s top six scorers are back, including 7-6 Tacko Fall, a tantalizing talent who led the nation in two-point field goal percentage as a freshman last season. Leading scorer A.J. Davis (12 ppg), a former Tennessee transfer, will seek to improve his offensive efficiency under Dawkins.
► Bottom line: Dawkins isn’t walking into a program with a completely bare cupboard, but a rebuild will not happen overnight, either. UCF hasn’t made the NCAA tournament in more than a decade, and last season’s 6-12 conference mark was its best in three seasons in the AAC. Improving upon that record is a reasonable goal, particularly if it includes an emergence from Fall, who also had 2.3 blocked shots per game, 27th in the country.
8. East Carolina Pirates
► What to watch: The Pirates return three double-figure scorers from a year ago in B.J. Tyson, Caleb White and Kentrell Barkley. That trio’s production didn’t translate to many victories a season ago, but their return gives ECU a chance to slide closer toward the upper half of the league. Barkley, an all-AAC freshman team pick last year, is one of the most versatile players in the league.
► Bottom line: Jeff Lebo has coached a Division I basketball team in each of the last 18 seasons and has yet to make the NCAA tournament. It’s unlikely that Year 19 will be the charm, but an underrated recruiting class and a solid base of returning talent should offer Lebo’s Pirates a real shot at upward mobility in what might be a scattered AAC.
9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
► What to watch: Change is everywhere in the AAC this fall, but nowhere is it more visible than at Tulsa. Of the eight players who averaged 17 or more minutes per game for the Golden Hurricane last season, seven have graduated. The lone contributor to return, senior guard Pat Birt (12ppg), will be joined by an ensemble of freshmen and transfers on what will be a completely new-look team.
► Bottom line: Beyond Birt, it’s hard to predict where the production will come from on this roster. After a disappointing season a year ago — one that did still end in the NCAA tournament (barely) — coach Frank Haith will have a chance to flip the script and turn low expectations into overachievement. Failure to do so might not cost him his job quite yet, but this is a pivotal season for the future of Tulsa basketball.
1. Connecticut Huskies
► What to watch: A year ago, the Huskies needed Jalen Adams’ buzzer-beating heave to extend their season and earn the AAC tournament automatic bid into the NCAA tournament. There will be no excuse if such extreme late-season moments are necessary to secure a Big Dance ticket this season. UConn returns the most talent in the league — guards Adams and Rodney Purvis highlight a solid core of returnees — and brings in a freshman class that ranks among the top 10 in the country. Dynamic playmaking guard Alterique Gilbert will be a freshman to watch.
► Bottom line: In theory, Kevin Ollie shouldn’t have much to prove. It was only three seasons ago that he led the Huskies to a national title in his first season as a head coach. But after two underachieving seasons, Ollie should be motivated to produce a validating one in Year 4. With the list of legitimate AAC title contenders as short as it has ever been, a regular-season conference crown would be a natural place for that validation to begin. The talent is there for the Huskies to find later success beyond the AAC, but the preseason favorites should first make sure to take care of business in conference play.
2. Cincinnati Bearcats
► What to watch: Dramatic late-season moments on the court gave way to tense times in Bearcats country this offseason, as coach Mick Cronin experienced a prolonged flirtation with the vacant UNLV coaching job. In the end, Cronin decided to return and will lead a Cincinnati team that is an AAC title contender. Troy Caupain (13 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.8 apg), a first-team all-AAC performer a season ago, leads the way. Fellow returnees Gary Clark (10.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Jacob Evans, along with 6-5 freshman guard Jarron Cumberland, will look to spark an offense that could be the best Cronin has coached in three seasons at Cincinnati.
► Bottom line: For six seasons running, Cincinnati has possessed one of the 25 most efficient defenses in college basketball. With Cronin and his trademark intensity back on the sideline, there’s no reason to expect any deviation from that grinding Bearcats identity. The potential new wrinkle lies on the other end of the floor, where Cronin owns as wide an array of offensive talent as he ever has. If that ability can come together in a meaningful way, the Bearcats could find traction as a national sleeper.
3. Houston Cougars
► What to watch: All-AAC first-teamer Devonta Pollard is gone, but the Cougars return a number of key contributors from a team that won nine of 11 games in January and February to surge into NCAA tournament consideration. Damyean Dotson (13.9ppg), who has played at Oregon and Houston, will lead the postseason push, with backcourt help sure to arrive from returnees Rob Gray Jr. and Galen Robinson Jr.
► Bottom line: After the program had years of dormancy, Kelvin Sampson has breathed life into it. The recent history still sits very much at odds with the larger back story, however, as the Cougars program has five times as many Final Four appearances in its history as it does NCAA tournament bids in the last 23 years. But it feels like things are changing. Whether the Cougars break into the field of 68 in March will depend largely on whether they find necessary improvement on the defensive end.
4. Southern Methodist Mustangs
► What to watch: No team in the AAC experienced more change from last season to this than the Mustangs. Gone are Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown and AAC player of the year Nic Moore, along with key contributors Markus Kennedy and Jordan Tolbert. One positive development: SMU is again eligible for postseason play after the NCAA banned it last season because of multiple rules violations. Expectations are lower this season, but the Mustangs are plenty dangerous enough to take advantage of the lifted ban.
► Bottom line: The Brown era heightened both interest and instability at SMU. Tim Jankovich might miss some of the departed talent but also will surely seek a smoother future course. Relying on sophomore guard Shake Milton and senior forward Ben Moore, two potential all-league players, will ease his transition. Another potential source of early assistance for Jankovich? Help from a three-man freshman class that includes two Aussie imports (6-11 forward Harry Froling and 6-5 guard Tom Wilson).
5. Temple Owls
► What to watch: Never count out a Fran Dunphy-coached team. This lesson was taught again last year, when Temple surged out of an uninspiring non-conference season to capture an entirely unexpected AAC regular-season title. The loss of unanimous all-AAC first-teamer Quenton DeCosey, along with two fellow senior starters, again leaves Dunphy with comfortably low expectations.
► Bottom line: Senior Josh Brown (8.3 pgg, 4.9 apg) led the Owls in minutes a season ago and again will be relied upon heavily. Obi Enechionyia, a 6-9 forward, made 56 three-pointers last year and should only see his usage increase in the absence of DeCosey. Dunphy brings in a talented class of newcomers. Whether or not the freshmen contribute, don’t sleep on the Owls.
6. Memphis Tigers
► What to watch: With Josh Pastner gone and Tubby Smith in his place, this Memphis season already feels different. If all goes as planned, the talented but underachieving teams of recent Memphis past will look nothing like Smith’s first group of Tigers. There is still talent here — Dedric Lawson (15.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5 apg) is a prime example of it — but Smith’s history of success and knack for getting the most out of his teams bodes well for the present and the future.
► Bottom line: Hopes should be high for the Tigers to play tougher and smarter under Smith, but the uncomfortable reality is that this is the least-talented team Memphis has fielded in quite some time. Four of the top five scorers from a season ago are gone, and that group couldn’t even manage a winning conference record. The 6-9 Lawson and his brother, K.J., a 6-7 guard-forward, will give Smith a chance to be competitive, but don’t be surprised if his first year is a struggle.
7. Central Florida Knights
► What to watch: The Knights have a new coach — former Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins — but return almost every contributor from a year ago. Five of UCF’s top six scorers are back, including 7-6 Tacko Fall, a tantalizing talent who led the nation in two-point field goal percentage as a freshman last season. Leading scorer A.J. Davis (12 ppg), a former Tennessee transfer, will seek to improve his offensive efficiency under Dawkins.
► Bottom line: Dawkins isn’t walking into a program with a completely bare cupboard, but a rebuild will not happen overnight, either. UCF hasn’t made the NCAA tournament in more than a decade, and last season’s 6-12 conference mark was its best in three seasons in the AAC. Improving upon that record is a reasonable goal, particularly if it includes an emergence from Fall, who also had 2.3 blocked shots per game, 27th in the country.
8. East Carolina Pirates
► What to watch: The Pirates return three double-figure scorers from a year ago in B.J. Tyson, Caleb White and Kentrell Barkley. That trio’s production didn’t translate to many victories a season ago, but their return gives ECU a chance to slide closer toward the upper half of the league. Barkley, an all-AAC freshman team pick last year, is one of the most versatile players in the league.
► Bottom line: Jeff Lebo has coached a Division I basketball team in each of the last 18 seasons and has yet to make the NCAA tournament. It’s unlikely that Year 19 will be the charm, but an underrated recruiting class and a solid base of returning talent should offer Lebo’s Pirates a real shot at upward mobility in what might be a scattered AAC.
9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
► What to watch: Change is everywhere in the AAC this fall, but nowhere is it more visible than at Tulsa. Of the eight players who averaged 17 or more minutes per game for the Golden Hurricane last season, seven have graduated. The lone contributor to return, senior guard Pat Birt (12ppg), will be joined by an ensemble of freshmen and transfers on what will be a completely new-look team.
► Bottom line: Beyond Birt, it’s hard to predict where the production will come from on this roster. After a disappointing season a year ago — one that did still end in the NCAA tournament (barely) — coach Frank Haith will have a chance to flip the script and turn low expectations into overachievement. Failure to do so might not cost him his job quite yet, but this is a pivotal season for the future of Tulsa basketball.
