ADVERTISEMENT

Thoughts on DOGE?

lawpoke87 said:
At this point he has gone off the reservation
Click to expand...
I think you misunderstood Trump's intentions with tariffs if you thought he just went off the reservation recently. He wanted to remake the global market from the start and thought tariffs were the way. He wanted to set tariffs as the tax we imposed like before WWII. He always thought we could reset the market to pre WWII and immediately post WWII levels, and erase China's place in the world market. He wanted to do the same to Latin America.

He just doesn't realize the impossibility of it. He doesn't comprehend that the logistics of what he wants is not possible today. But he is a bull in a china closet, and he's going to try anyway. He doesn't listen to anybody when he's made up his mind. And he gets advice from idiots while trying to make up his mind.
 
  • Like
Reactions: drboobay
Gmoney4WW said:
Where did your braggadocio insistence that Trump's threats of tariffs would be nothing more than that. This gamble that we can turn the global market back and change it to a national market is bs that will fail. We aren't going to bring our production costs down to compete with costs of land & labor in china or latin America. It's just going to cost us in the cost of goods and taxation on those goods. And these tax cuts that favor the wealthy aren't going to equal the taxation we are paying in tariffs. So the general populace will be paying as much in taxes as before, but also be paying this grand federal sales tax that tariffs will cause. This country will not be able to afford this grand experiment of the blazing idiot of a president that we have. Tariffs are a mechanism for inflation. I don't know how you can say that inflation has more of an effect on the poor than tariffs. Tariffs have levels, just like inflation. Trumps tariff levels are going to be way higher than inflation levels that we just suffered.

I don't know how you think this recession will be short. It will be long(end of term and later) unless Trump backs off this tariff war.

Trump/Musk/Doge will come nowhere near the cuts they have estimated. They touch SS and Medicare with the machete they have been using and the people will scream bloody murder. They need to use a scalpel, & they don't have any idea how to use it.
Click to expand...
No respect for expertise. Trump has weird and fantastical thinking.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Clong83a and Gmoney4WW
lawpoke87 said:
No argument from me. The ten year is in free fall. Current yield is now below 4%. Very good news for home buyers and home construction. Hopefully renters as well but rates would need to stay down for awhile to see an effect there
Click to expand...
You know, if you ignore the fact that the cost of the raw materials to build the home went up tremendously yesterday that’s good.
 
astonmartin708 said:
As we all know… houses are built purely out of sticks…just don’t look at the price of your kitchen sinks.
Click to expand...
lol Plenty of US sink manufactures not subject to any tariffs. Almost all materials for housing are either manufactured stateside or imported from Canada as far as lumber.

Care to list all these raw materials which have gone up “tremendously” in the construction of housing?

I might also suggest you look up the definition of “raw materials”. Sinks ain’t one of them.
 
Last edited:
lawpoke87 said:
lol Plenty of US sink manufactures not subject to any tariffs. Almost all materials for housing are either manufactured stateside or imported from Canada as far as lumber.

Care to list all these raw materials which have gone up “tremendously” in the construction of housing?

I might also suggest you look up the definition of “raw materials”. Sinks ain’t one of them.
Click to expand...
Shingles (and the high viscosity Canadian oil oil that makes them), composite products, gypsum / lime, wood, lumber, siding (wood, vinyl, etc…) concrete and cement. Glass and windows, doors, granite countertops, appliances, steel, nails screws and fasteners, insulation etc….

Now, you’re going to say a bunch of that was excluded from tariffs, didn’t have tariffs set upon it ‘yesterday’, or that it’s made in America generally. What you ignore is that raising the duties on thousands of other goods inherently raises the costs of manufacturing and producing those goods as manufacturers have to pay for things like work trucks, excavators, computers and IT equipment, company phones, office furniture. They have to pay their employees a wage that will allow them to survive in an inflationary marketplace and the contractors who install them (and the real estate agents who sell the houses and broker the titles) will have similar problems. Domestic manufacturers will also have trouble keeping up with increased demand and will begin to raise prices in response.

If we’ve learned anything from Covid it’s that small disruptions in specific parts of supply chains can have massive downstream impacts.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gmoney4WW and drboobay
Trump is using magical thinking. He finds a few rogue economists he can point to that will defend his crazy ideas but otherwise he is trying to wish something into existence.

Not much different than the antivax and 'holistic' vudu that Kennedy is espousing. Birds of a feather.

As of now the main chance we have is popular rebellion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gmoney4WW
astonmartin708 said:
Shingles (and the high viscosity Canadian oil oil that makes them), composite products, gypsum / lime, wood, lumber, siding (wood, vinyl, etc…) concrete and cement. Glass and windows, doors, granite countertops, appliances, steel, nails screws and fasteners, insulation etc….

Now, you’re going to say a bunch of that was excluded from tariffs, didn’t have tariffs set upon it ‘yesterday’, or that it’s made in America generally. What you ignore is that raising the duties on thousands of other goods inherently raises the costs of manufacturing and producing those goods as manufacturers have to pay for things like work trucks, excavators, computers and IT equipment, company phones, office furniture. They have to pay their employees a wage that will allow them to survive in an inflationary marketplace and the contractors who install them (and the real estate agents who sell the houses and broker the titles) will have similar problems. Domestic manufacturers will also have trouble keeping up with increased demand and will begin to raise prices in response.

If we’ve learned anything from Covid it’s that small disruptions in specific parts of supply chains can have massive downstream impacts.
Click to expand...
You’re all over the place. Yesterday you were predicting another Great Depression with millions and millions out of work. Now you’re predicting increases on the demand side and employers being forced to up wages due to upward wage pressures. You’re also predicting an inflationary marketplace during a depression. These are all contradictory to basic economic theory. You might want to glance at the bond market for a lesson where we’re headed should we enter a recession. Hint…it won’t be rising wages and increases in demand.

What we learned from Covid (well some of us) is what happens when you inject trillions of dollars into a marketplace already experiencing shortages of goods and services. We are looking at the exact opposite here.

As far as housing. The forecast cost to build a 2500 square foot home today is approximately the same as it was last week. At least here in Tulsa. Lumber packages, windows, roofing, electric, plumbing, hvac, concrete, and finishes. Basically the vast majority of the cost of construction. Carrying costs have of course decreased
 
lawpoke87 said:
You’re all over the place. Yesterday you were predicting another Great Depression with millions and millions out of work. Now you’re predicting increases on the demand side and employers being forced to up wages due to upward wage pressures. You’re also predicting an inflationary marketplace during a depression. These are all contradictory to basic economic theory. You might want to glance at the bond market for a lesson where we’re headed should we enter a recession. Hint…it won’t be rising wages and increases in demand.

What we learned from Covid (well some of us) is what happens when you inject trillions of dollars into a marketplace already experiencing shortages of goods and services. We are looking at the exact opposite here.

As far as housing. The forecast cost to build a 2500 square foot home today is approximately the same as it was last week. At least here in Tulsa. Lumber packages, windows, roofing, electric, plumbing, hvac, concrete, and finishes. Basically the vast majority of the cost of construction. Carrying costs have of course decreased
Click to expand...
I seriously doubt prices are going to go down, quite the opposite on something like a house. This will be a major disruptor like we've never had in the marketplace before. This onslaught of major tariff increases has never happened in the history of the world. The increases happened in a different time when the world was not so connected, and the increases were much more gradual.

No matter whether there is a recession or not I'm betting housing prices increase. The demand may decrease, but the cost of making and harvesting materials while paying tariffs will increase. So wages decrease, unemployment increases, and housing costs will at least maintain but likely increase. That leads to a major problem. The new construction industry will shrink massively IMO. Everything will cost more. The supply chain & tariffs will demand that happens.


Whether he carries through or not is yet to be seen, but Trump is threatening raising the lumber tariffs, and raising the tariffs overall on Canada. Overall means ON TOP of the individual lumber tariffs. At this point those threats amount to more than 50%. We'll see if Trump wants to commit suicide in the next few months. Im betting he backs down or congress forces him to.

If the pressure gets too much, he might try to quietly supplement industries with the 'taxes' he collected to ease the burden on the public. Which will defeat what he was trying to do with tariffs in the first place. I'm sure he would claim an alternate truth, and say he didn't do that. But it would be massive egg on his face, and he would begin to be viewed as the joke that he is.
 
Last edited:
lawpoke87 said:
You’re all over the place. Yesterday you were predicting another Great Depression with millions and millions out of work. Now you’re predicting increases on the demand side and employers being forced to up wages due to upward wage pressures. You’re also predicting an inflationary marketplace during a depression. These are all contradictory to basic economic theory. You might want to glance at the bond market for a lesson where we’re headed should we enter a recession. Hint…it won’t be rising wages and increases in demand.

What we learned from Covid (well some of us) is what happens when you inject trillions of dollars into a marketplace already experiencing shortages of goods and services. We are looking at the exact opposite here.

As far as housing. The forecast cost to build a 2500 square foot home today is approximately the same as it was last week. At least here in Tulsa. Lumber packages, windows, roofing, electric, plumbing, hvac, concrete, and finishes. Basically the vast majority of the cost of construction. Carrying costs have of course decreased
Click to expand...
You will see a temporary spike in domestic manufacturing (either until Trump slinks out of office or he repeals his tariffs) as buyers try to adjust to US based supply chains to save money, but US supply won’t be able to keep up with demand which will raise prices.

And every business will suffer from the increased prices on opex of the ancillary things I talked about (trucks, phones, computers, routers, toilet paper in the bathroom, etc…)
 
astonmartin708 said:
You will see a temporary spike in domestic manufacturing (either until Trump slinks out of office or he repeals his tariffs) as buyers try to adjust to US based supply chains to save money, but US supply won’t be able to keep up with demand which will raise prices.

And every business will suffer from the increased prices on opex of the ancillary things I talked about (trucks, phones, computers, routers, toilet paper in the bathroom, etc…)
Click to expand...
If we have a repeat of the Great Depression with millions and millions unable to find work like you’re talking about demand will plummet across the board. New housing construction which we are talking about would be no different. Unemployed people can’t qualify for loans and thus are unable to buy houses. Go back and see what happened to demand during the depression. The basic economics haven’t changed.
 
lawpoke87 said:
Assume most of us believe an audit of our over $6T spending is long overdue. I also assume my friends on the left hate the fact that it’s being undertaken by President Musk.

Seems like one of the more consequential things to occur in federal government in years…for better or worse.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
If you look at the 10 they doxxed you may notice one is my cousin. The only thing more consequential than this is the tariffs & impending cancelling out of the trade deficit & national debt.
 
astonmartin708 said:
You will see a temporary spike in domestic manufacturing (either until Trump slinks out of office or he repeals his tariffs) as buyers try to adjust to US based supply chains to save money, but US supply won’t be able to keep up with demand which will raise prices.
Click to expand...

Okay did you even consider that this might age not just very poorly but very poorly at a very rapid pace?
 
lawpoke87 said:
If we have a repeat of the Great Depression with millions and millions unable to find work like you’re talking about demand will plummet across the board. New housing construction which we are talking about would be no different. Unemployed people can’t qualify for loans and thus are unable to buy houses. Go back and see what happened to demand during the depression. The basic economics haven’t changed.
Click to expand...
From CNBC today…
  • A swift rise in mortgage rates this week wiped out any advantages of last week’s decline for homebuyers.
  • Mortgage rates are now about where they have been for the past six weeks.
  • Homebuyers are now more concerned with the state of the economy and employment than they are with rates.
Some of this math problem is sentiment based. People less likely to buy a house if they’re afraid they might lose their means to pay for it, and they get the fundamental economics that the federal government just pared thousands upon thousands of jobs and the rest of the economy isn’t looking more rosy.
 
astonmartin708 said:
From CNBC today…
  • A swift rise in mortgage rates this week wiped out any advantages of last week’s decline for homebuyers.
  • Mortgage rates are now about where they have been for the past six weeks.
  • Homebuyers are now more concerned with the state of the economy and employment than they are with rates.
Some of this math problem is sentiment based. People less likely to buy a house if they’re afraid they might lose their means to pay for it, and they get the fundamental economics that the federal government just pared thousands upon thousands of jobs and the rest of the economy isn’t looking more rosy.
Click to expand...
CNBC today: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/us-treasury-yields-investors-digest-impacts-of-tariffs.html
10 year treasury yield rises back above 4% despite threat to growth


Perhaps the threat is imaginary? Indeed!

Also CNBC today:
Dow Rebounds 900 on rising hope for tariff Deals
Again, I’ll take “what is gaslighting” for $250,000
 
Taxes were meant to fund war. The time of US citizens paying taxes is coming to an end.

What happens if Jerome Powell fails to lower interest rates as is mandated by Law to adjust for Treasury fluctuations?

Gold Standard? A New Standard.

ERS. External Revenue Service.

The democrats want you to pay them not the foreign nations already blocking American producers from optimal capital gains.

A byproduct is foreign companies forced or more incentivized to relocate to U.S. soil which fuels economic growth & jobs.

The democrats are against you benefiting from the most efficient model of enabling all U.S. citizens to their birthright of tax free generational wealth in world history.
 
@lawpoke87 thoughts on long term bond yields hitting multi year high levels?

Seems like we’re seeing a combination of hedge funds covering margin positions and being stuck in a downward spiral, as well as foreign money exiting the US market.
 
astonmartin708 said:
@lawpoke87 thoughts on long term bond yields hitting multi year high levels?

Seems like we’re seeing a combination of hedge funds covering margin positions and being stuck in a downward spiral, as well as foreign money exiting the US market.
Click to expand...
The bond market is a mess. You are spot on with your analysis. We are at a tipping point. I’m nervous. I expect the Fed to step in if necessary. The problem is that I don’t believe the Fed has the power to calm the bond market if the selloff continues due to the volume we’re seeing. High interest rates would obviously be disastrous on a number of fronts. I’m not worried about equities. I am worried about bonds
 
lawpoke87 said:
The bond market is a mess. You are spot on with your analysis. We are at a tipping point. I’m nervous. I expect the Fed to step in if necessary. The problem is that I don’t believe the Fed has the power to calm the bond market if the selloff continues due to the volume we’re seeing. High interest rates would obviously be disastrous on a number of fronts. I’m not worried about equities. I am worried about bonds
Click to expand...
Congress really need to grow some gumption and step in to provide some economic surety to the globe, because if they don’t and things continue to go south, they may get slaughtered in the next election cycle.

It’s probably going to take them overriding a Trump Veto to actually make any difference though.
 
Last edited:
astonmartin708 said:
Congress really need to grow some gumption and step in to provide some economic surety to the globe, because if they don’t and things continue to go south, they may get slaughtered in the next election cycle.

It’s probably going to take them overriding a Trump Veto to actually make any difference though.
Click to expand...
My very uneducated guess is that we will start announcing trade deals in the coming weeks. The markets need better optics. If we don’t see some positive news on the trade front in the next month then all bets are off. I don’t see how this level of uncertainty can continue long term.
 
lawpoke87 said:
The bond market is a mess. You are spot on with your analysis. We are at a tipping point. I’m nervous. I expect the Fed to step in if necessary. The problem is that I don’t believe the Fed has the power to calm the bond market if the selloff continues due to the volume we’re seeing. High interest rates would obviously be disastrous on a number of fronts. I’m not worried about equities. I am worried about bonds
Click to expand...
The United States doesn’t have to depend on China for REMM … we have bountiful untouched resources.

Those who aren’t blinded by their hatred of Trump stand to gain generational wealth for even what the haters would consider a very small investment affordable for even people living month to month financially. Not since the land run could such a small amount of investment generate such bountiful generational wealth. That opportunity is on the horizon. Pay attention.

Ashton & GWM or whatever Gold the blue hairs that hate Trump; to you all I say this: Trump Derangement Syndrome is REAL! Like I said before, these people would NEVER side against a foreign enemy so firmly the way they are against Trump & their fellow countrymen & women who voted for him.

You’d be smart to let it go & no longer let any emotion enter into the coming news dare I say you might just say “I want him to do well bc if it’s best for the country & could be good for me I don’t want to miss out & be a sucker.” It’ll be good for you in fact it’ll make you a stronger man!

After all, it was the very trait of being WEAK MEN that has allowed you all to be unable to objectively analyze anything Trump related because you are overcome with emotion & that emotion is HATE!
 
lawpoke87 said:
My very uneducated guess is that we will start announcing trade deals in the coming weeks. The markets need better optics. If we don’t see some positive news on the trade front in the next month then all bets are off. I don’t see how this level of uncertainty can continue long term.
Click to expand...
No one is worried about the markets in the WH. 10% is a baseline the tariffs could still go back up for all 70+ countries. I don’t anticipate it; I assume they will be cooperative but if they choose not to be we could be right back where we were a week ago + China at 150%.

No worries; have faith. The stock market never LOST anything; some money shifted to bonds where some of it remains. The market, like always, retains its standing to gain substantial value over the long term.

There are other issues right now not even directly related to that very well could cause further market dips even beyond where we saw over the past week. Don’t sweat them. Have Faith!

And to those who already have faith, pray for wisdom among the Ayatollah.
 
RIP represalia said:
No one is worried about the markets in the WH. 10% is a baseline the tariffs could still go back up for all 70+ countries. I don’t anticipate it; I assume they will be cooperative but if they choose not to be we could be right back where we were a week ago + China at 150%.

No worries; have faith. The stock market never LOST anything; some money shifted to bonds where some of it remains. The market, like always, retains its standing to gain substantial value over the long term.

There are other issues right now not even directly related to that very well could cause further market dips even beyond where we saw over the past week. Don’t sweat them. Have Faith!

And to those who already have faith, pray for wisdom among the Ayatollah.
Click to expand...
Funny, I suppose this highlights the difference between us & them. These adult males lack character, strength, faith, gumption, guts & grit! They cannot admit they were wrong!

They’re adult males but they are not men & they will never EVER be Leaders of Men! That means they will never raise a male neither their offspring or another to be a leader! They are without Honor, loyal to lawlessness & leveraged labor. They will never walk with us because they could never carry the cross! They would’ve sold Him out quicker than Judas’ Chariot!

By the way anyone see the news on China? I’ve dropped enough clues yall should’ve figured it out but whatever. They lack brains, too; it’s true!
 
Loooks as though bond markets are still struggling. Yields are basically where they were at prior to the 90 day pause
 
astonmartin708 said:
Loooks as though bond markets are still struggling. Yields are basically where they were at prior to the 90 day pause
Click to expand...
Markets hate uncertainty. Lots of selling going on. Look for the Fed to step in if this continues. We can’t afford high bond yields.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

W

$500B tax hit?

Replies
57
Views
2K
Crossfire
Gmoney4WW
G
astonmartin708

Espionage Act

Replies
22
Views
702
Crossfire
Gmoney4WW
G
goldenhurricane2

Poplin Interview with Justin Moore

Replies
25
Views
1K
Hurricane Alley
URedskin54
URedskin54
C

Game Thoughts Rice

Replies
18
Views
2K
Hurricane Alley
seniorgolfer
S
nevadanatural

Game thoughts UAPB

Replies
25
Views
9K
Hurricane Alley
TULSARISING
TULSARISING
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back