The first 100 days
- Thread starter watu05
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If abandon our key competitive asset because it's so good others want to steal the results and imitate it, what do we have left? Destroy our most important asset and hope that we can steal results from China or Europe when they pick up the pieces leave us behindt?
BTW Apples' Tim Cook explains why they can't move iPhone manufacturing to the US, and it's not because of cheap labor and theft.
it's not a pissing contest. There is the possibility that two answers can be right. You are both correct. I wish more people realized/admitted that in situations like this.
So how is this going to bring back manufacturing in the US, which is Trumps big beautiful idea. He floated 80% while he was debating himself on a deal with China.
145% is really, really, really unaffordable. 80% is really, really unaffordable.
What's the real difference here. Not much. So a pc that would have cost you $1200, now costs you $2160 instead of $2940. Whoopee for Microsoft no longer supporting windows 10. In either situation a new pc is not a good deal at either price.
Even if it's something way lower like 40% that still is not supportable. If we pay that much extra cost on MOST of the things we buy it is not affordable at lower to mid wages. 10% is barely affordable but then we are back to bitching about inflation/tariffs, just like we did with Biden. And we are back to it not really being enough to push manufacturing back to the states. It just doesn't put enough pressure to change the manufacturing base at 10%.(at least not very quickly) And the speculativeness of whether this changes tomorrow leaves investment up in the air about whether to start building plants in the US.
Now at 25% and up where Trump wants to leave it,(and China feels pressured to fight back) it cuts lower income's standard of living way down to below poverty level. This is not sustainable for China or the US. Who cares whose economy is in better or worse shape if neither one can support this. This will devastate someone who is anywhere near minimum wage. It will cause people to move back in with their parents the same way covid did. I find it funny that anybody thinks medium to lower wage households could come close to supporting a 25% increase in cost of Chinese goods, much less where it is at now.
This will be a lot closer to Covid, than the Biden inflation, as far as the economic impact. We either don't buy it, or buy inferior alternatives.(some of which MIGHT be American made) There will be a lot of not buying it. And that will cut below the line of necessity with a lot more people than most people think. There was no choice with covid. There was a battle to bring inflation down after the initial decisions had already been made under Biden. And the democratic party took the brunt of that in the elections. This is by Trumps choice that this is happening. Only for some grand idealistic goal to get manufacturing back. It won't come back, and the people will suffer. Then it will be the republican party that takes the brunt of it.
25% if we're lucky, is the best deal that Trump would even entertain for Chinese goods. And he might not drop to anywhere near that. 25% on Chinese goods is a catastrophe for both our economies. I expect China would give it back to the people in some way they think is not terribly obvious. Then Trump will be forced to consider the same. It all ends up being nothing less than a huge mess. Just like Doge will be. We will lose our competitive edge, be forced to backtrack, rehire/restart employees/agencies, etc. I feel sorry for the next president no matter which party he or she is in. They will have so much to fix, it won't even be funny. And if they don't win two terms, I feel sorry for the next two presidents.
Great news on the trade front. Hopefully we can get something permanent in the next 90 days. Still believe the 30% tariff on Chinese goods is too high. I would be shocked if China permanently agrees to a 20 percent spread in outgoing and incoming tariffs. Maybe China is in worse shape than even I thought ?
US and UK sign trade deal. Hopefully more will follow.
Looks like Putin and Zel will finally meet face to face this week. Hopefully we can get some movement toward peace there.
www.cnbc.com
US and UK sign trade deal. Hopefully more will follow.
Looks like Putin and Zel will finally meet face to face this week. Hopefully we can get some movement toward peace there.
U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough
The U.S. and China on Monday agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other's goods in a move that shows a thawing of trade tensions.
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So the American people should pay significantly more for prescription drugs than the citizens in countries like Canada, Germany, UK, etc in the name of research? I don’t mind contributing a portion of the price of a drug for R&D but to lay that burden in the hands of the US consumer seems inherently unfair. Seems odd we’ve allowed this system to persist. Maybe the strength of the big pharma lobby?
Whoops. US drug prices are higher because of US corporations drug policies, not just research costs which are largely government funded. FDA approvals are a hit as well. . Here is a great example. https://www.propublica.org/article/revlimid-price-cancer-celgene-drugs-fda-multiple-myeloma There are other structural issues, but this example provides an interesting case.
That Trump is addressing high US prescription prices is good and needed. Hopefully he follows through.
That Trump is addressing high US prescription prices is good and needed. Hopefully he follows through.
The China "deal" consists of a couple of press releases touting progress and a temporary, lower tariff rate. Let's see what happens. Will it be the "new" NAFTA which promised much and delivered almost noting? Have to agree that things are moving as predicted by those here who suggested Trump would follow his first term routine and back off his big initial threats. At nearly 80, it's doubtful he will learn new tricks.
Whatever he comes up with, will it be worth the damage done?
Whatever he comes up with, will it be worth the damage done?
All we can do is hope so.
At this point even a face saving agreement that minimizes harm is ok by me. Even if it gives Trump an out.
I am more concerned about the American people than Trump looking bad.
Supposedly Import % is around 16% of all goods are imported, and 16% of those imports come from China. That makes virtually no sense to me. That puts my expenditures on Chinese goods at approximately $2.55 out of $100 spent on goods. That does not compute. The real issue though is that US goods are supposed to go up though. If the US goods use 65%-85% of their parts from foreign imports, then they will have to pay those import costs on domestic goods, and then transmit them to us. I want to know what % of parts on US goods are Chinese.
Just rough calculations. Please point out where wrong.
Imports from China $440B
Retail sales $5.5T
So 8 cents on every dollar. 30% tariff is 2.4 cents on every dollar or $2.40 per every $100.
Your number looks spot on to me. This is assuming wholesalers and retailers are able to pass along 100% of the tariff and those goods aren’t available from other sources at a cheaper price once the tariff is taken into account
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During Trump's campaign he discussed tariffs in terms of 10-20% globally all the while claiming it would not raise prices in the US. So as Poke and others suggested it appears that Trump did his usual number. Create havoc so that when he inevitably backs down, it looks live a victory. Who knows where the China talks will end up, but wherever it does, Trump will claim a victory. Regardless the costs will be significant in terms of lost trust in the US$ and as a trading partner. We will see lots of talk about plans for new investments in US plants, but they will be years away, probably about 3.5 years.
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My view is a lot of Americans (and most of MAGA) are in really bad shape and wanted something done...now. Trump promised that and is frantically taking action. For most of MAGA, it didn't matter if Trump's solution was right or wrong, it had the necessary ingredients: someone to blame (China, DEI and immigrants) and fast, concrete solutions (tariffs, deportations and budget cuts). We can talk all day about wealth being concentrated in the top 1%, loss of representation to gerrymandering, or climate change. Those are theoretical compared to grocery, gas, and housing prices. It might be fairer to call people desperate, like those with terminal cancer who go to Mexico for Laetrile. Question is "How bad does Trump's performance have to be and who is going to provide a similarly attractive alternative?"
Yes but it is not all economic. The trans menace seems to permeate in those circles too. And the woke panic. And distrust of civil society, intellectuals and institutions.
Nasty smelling brew.
But they were vulnerable because of the arrogance and excesses of the left.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-price-increases-trump-tariffs.html
Premature declaration of victory?
It’s no longer a wonder in how China would fare against the U.S. militarily… lmao even the gold they sell doesn’t work!
Let’s have a look at the 3 plausible, I’m sorry; THE THREE SHOCKINGLY PLAUSIBLE, scenarios here (+1 more that shouldn’t be plausible at all
China thought it wouldn’t be a bad idea to sell fake gold because their population would never believe it was true (unlikely.)
China was duped themselves into buying the fake gold & didn’t know it to be so when selling it (slightly more likely.)
Some poor CCP loyalist cucc bought this & upon realizing it decided it would be much better for him to unload it immediately than explain it to CCP & ultimately Xi.
They never knew it was fake to begin with & thus sold it with 0 precaution taken toward repercussions of sainthood being fake.
Unfortunately for China it really could be the latter.
No…I clearly said number was pre tariff and next month number would be key.
I think the CPI number will take a bit to float as inventories allowed retailers to avoid increases initially. We're just now starting to see things being increased substantially.
Cussung people out in all caps really intimidates the posters on here. It helps greatly to change their position as well. Sorry your mental illness and insecurity about your own manhood causes you to interrupt conversations between adults.
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