The first 100 days

[drboobay]

Perpetual war is an option in Ukraine.

To give Trump credit, a long term cease fire is another option, where the new lines are not finalized but left in limbo.

EU membership for Ukraine but not NATO is another potential face saving possibility for both sides.

 

[astonmartin708]

I think for Ukraine to even start considering a negotiated peace, Russia would have to give up the Russian region occupied by Ukraine and probably one of the territories that it currently holds in the East.

If Russia really wants peace... it's not going to come strictly on their terms and the compromise is going to be bitter for both sides. Right now Trump is negotiating with Russia to give them their entire demands including (nonsensically) the withdrawal of US troops from several parts of Europe that aren't even in the war.

Right now, the USA has a decent hand to play in negotiations. (Well, at least we did until Trump started tanking the economy).... We had much more economic stability than Russia did. We had the threat of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, and calling Putins bluff for the 15th time in the past 3 years. Then, instead, we decided to give Russia everything they asked for.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

75% of Republicans polled by CNN say they want a quick end to the war, and Russia keeps all acquired land. SMH No penalty whatsoever desired by republicans for Russia.

 

[watu05]

After WW2, the US moved to establish a new world order that wouldn't produce world war after the world war. The UN, Marshall Plan, free trade, alliances, and foreign assistance replaced tariff wars and strong arming the weak. The result was 80 years of relative peace and an immense increase in wealth with the US at the top. Trump seems intent on returning to the pre-WW2 world. Major powers call the shots, taffies are used to extort concessions, and weak countries pay the price. Who in Europe would now believe that the US would now protect a small NATO country attacked by Russia?

The trigger for Putin's initial incursion into Ukraine was the possibility of its joining the EU which would have established a more vibrant alternative to the Putin regime next door. Putin wants to be surrounded by similar autocratic states, not growing, free democracies that make Russia look bad. Ukraine is the outlier, so it's hard to believe he will agree to Ukraine joining the EU, NATO or anything in that direction. He wants a vessal state, and Trump is sympathetic with the view. Plus Trump hates Z going back years.

This return means that the US has to attack its allies and friends first. Trump has initially focused on Canada, Mexico and Europe, our closest allies, because they are also our biggest trading partners and have the most to give up. Russia has basically nothing to offer the US. Japan, China, and the Pacific TBD. Trump can use US power to extort concessions, but the result will be the same as Trump's business dealings; a legacy of destroyed relationships and angry victims.

 

[lawpoke87]

Perpetual war is an option in Ukraine.

To give Trump credit, a long term cease fire is another option, where the new lines are not finalized but left in limbo.

EU membership for Ukraine but not NATO is another potential face saving possibility for both sides.

Without a significant increase in military assistance, Ukraine will eventually be lost with a perpetual war.

To date, Zelensky has shown zero desire to agree to any peace deal which involves ceding all or part of the territory currently occupied by Russia. I see no peace scenario where Russia does not retain at least part of that dirt.

Might come down to what is more important to Ukraine. Some of the land currently occupied or EU/NATO membership. I personally don’t see Zelensky agreeing to anything short of a complete withdrawal without being forced by the US and NATO.

 

[watu05]

Without a significant increase in military assistance, Ukraine will eventually be lost with a perpetual war.

To date, Zelensky has shown zero desire to agree to any peace deal which involves ceding all or part of the territory currently occupied by Russia. I see no peace scenario where Russia does not retain at least part of that dirt.

Might come down to what is more important to Ukraine. Some of the land currently occupied or EU/NATO membership. I personally don’t see Zelensky agreeing to anything short of a complete withdrawal without being forced by the US and NATO.

The idea that Putin (and therefore Trump) would agree to Ukraine in the EU or NATO is a fantasy.

 

[drboobay]

Early on Russia was amenable to EU.

 

[watu05]

Not sure when you mean. In 2013, Russia pressured then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to reject signing the Association Agreement with the EU, a first step towards integration. When Yanukovych was booted and the interest in the EU relationship continued, Russia invaded Crimea. This year Russia added every EU member to its list of "unfriendly countries".

 

[lawpoke87]

The idea that Putin (and therefore Trump) would agree to Ukraine in the EU or NATO is a fantasy.

I believe Russia would agree to allow Ukraine to join the EU if a peace treaty eliminated any question of Ukraine joining NATO and drew country lines near current boundaries. The latter would probably have some wiggle room to push back those boundaries to some extent

Don’t dismiss the role Ukraine potentially joining NATO played in this war.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Without a significant increase in military assistance, Ukraine will eventually be lost with a perpetual war.

To date, Zelensky has shown zero desire to agree to any peace deal which involves ceding all or part of the territory currently occupied by Russia. I see no peace scenario where Russia does not retain at least part of that dirt.

Might come down to what is more important to Ukraine. Some of the land currently occupied or EU/NATO membership. I personally don’t see Zelensky agreeing to anything short of a complete withdrawal without being forced by the US and NATO.

Trump has been acting at times like this deal would allow more war funding and Ukraine to fight on. At other times he acts like they would get the lands that Russia just took from Ukraine on Wednesday or Thursday and a cease fire. So it seems like Trump is more concerned with rare earth minerals than peace. He'll give up either peace or weapons, as long as it gets the US more rare earth minerals.

 

[astonmartin708]

I believe Russia would agree to allow Ukraine to join the EU if a peace treaty eliminated any question of Ukraine joining NATO and drew country lines near current boundaries. The latter would probably have some wiggle room to push back those boundaries to some extent

Don’t dismiss the role Ukraine potentially joining NATO played in this war.

The only role that Ukraine joining NATO had was that it put a shot clock on Putin’s ambitions. I don’t believe for a second that he actually cares about NATO being close to his borders. If he did, he would have invaded Finland, or the Baltics.