There's real, meaningful basketball this week!
With 2 exhibition games in the books, it looks like I may have overestimated Korita and maybe Igbanu. For Korita, it's just a matter of getting lost in the guard depth. For Igbanu, I'm still optimistic, but I didn't anticipate Jeffries starting at the 4 and taking a significant number of those minutes immediately. The rest I feel pretty good about. Scott may end up playing more minutes than this, but you still have to find time for Wheeler, Henderson, and Joiner. Putting it all together, here's how the numbers would compare to last season.
By my math, that's a 5-win improvement in the offense. So how about the defense?
Defense is notoriously more difficult to project than offense. Most models use a combination of a coach's historical defensive record, team height, and team experience. With those factors in mind, it looks like they're projecting a small improvement in D this year. KenPom breaks it down as an improvement from 135 → 94 this year.
Which makes sense if you look at the roster changes. Jeffries is the big upgrade. And Igbanu will improve with a year under his belt. Everything else is largely the same minus the two best (only) shot-blockers from last year's team.
In 3 seasons, the defensive identity under Haith has been pretty straightforward. Gap control prevents easy baskets on drives to the hole, even without a rim protector. Guards crash the glass to prevent second chances. And you give up boatloads of 3s on the kick out. Every year, Tulsa opponents have consistently averaged some of the longest possessions in the country. Unfortunately, that patience is too often rewarded with an open 3 in the corner.
Last year's team was worse at shutting down the drive, but the biggest difference between the good defenses in '15/'16 and last year's mediocre one was that they didn't get steals and they didn't force turnovers. That's where Jeffries comes in. If he can fill that Shaq Harrison void, then we could prey on those long possessions by forcing a turnover before the opponent can find their open shot.
So, my homer prediction is the best offense we've had since 2003, a slightly improved defense, 22 wins, a 4th place finish in the conference, and another trip to lovely Dayton in March. And to make it even more wildly inaccurate, I might as well go ahead and pick each game to wrap it all up.
With 2 exhibition games in the books, it looks like I may have overestimated Korita and maybe Igbanu. For Korita, it's just a matter of getting lost in the guard depth. For Igbanu, I'm still optimistic, but I didn't anticipate Jeffries starting at the 4 and taking a significant number of those minutes immediately. The rest I feel pretty good about. Scott may end up playing more minutes than this, but you still have to find time for Wheeler, Henderson, and Joiner. Putting it all together, here's how the numbers would compare to last season.
By my math, that's a 5-win improvement in the offense. So how about the defense?
Defense is notoriously more difficult to project than offense. Most models use a combination of a coach's historical defensive record, team height, and team experience. With those factors in mind, it looks like they're projecting a small improvement in D this year. KenPom breaks it down as an improvement from 135 → 94 this year.
Which makes sense if you look at the roster changes. Jeffries is the big upgrade. And Igbanu will improve with a year under his belt. Everything else is largely the same minus the two best (only) shot-blockers from last year's team.
In 3 seasons, the defensive identity under Haith has been pretty straightforward. Gap control prevents easy baskets on drives to the hole, even without a rim protector. Guards crash the glass to prevent second chances. And you give up boatloads of 3s on the kick out. Every year, Tulsa opponents have consistently averaged some of the longest possessions in the country. Unfortunately, that patience is too often rewarded with an open 3 in the corner.
Last year's team was worse at shutting down the drive, but the biggest difference between the good defenses in '15/'16 and last year's mediocre one was that they didn't get steals and they didn't force turnovers. That's where Jeffries comes in. If he can fill that Shaq Harrison void, then we could prey on those long possessions by forcing a turnover before the opponent can find their open shot.
So, my homer prediction is the best offense we've had since 2003, a slightly improved defense, 22 wins, a 4th place finish in the conference, and another trip to lovely Dayton in March. And to make it even more wildly inaccurate, I might as well go ahead and pick each game to wrap it all up.
