Now that next year's roster is (mostly) finalized, let's do some bad math

[ctt8410]

This year's team finished the year shooting 47.2% from 2, 34.3% from 3 (best since 2012), and 72.9% from the line (best since 2003). These numbers were largely seen as a disappointment because the 2P% was legitimately terrible, the 3P% wasn't nearly good enough to make up for other deficiencies, and every fanbase believes their team would make 90% of their free throws if they just practiced them more. Here's where those percentages ranked nationally:

2pt%: 264th out of 351
3pt%: 202nd
FT%: 94th

Birt, Battle, and Atson are gone. So if we remove their numbers, here's where the percentages rank

2pt%: 165th out of 351
3pt%: 155th
FT%: 100th

And we add 2 players with D1 experience, so why not throw their numbers into the mix as well?

2pt%: 145th out of 351
3pt%: 110th
FT%: 45th

Those numbers would also rank 2nd, 4th, and 1st in the AAC. Of course, there's many caveats to this analysis and I'm not saying we'll actually rank that high, but maybe some optimism for the offense next year? And of course disappointment when we only make 75% of our free throws.

 

[astonmartin708]

The guards + Jeffries will certainly help our cause. I don't know how high we can rise in conference though.

It looks like Houston might take a step or two backwards while Tulane and UCF will get a lot better. Memphis is still up in the air as is SMU. UCONN and Temple should be better again as well. Cincy will still be a force. I think a 4th or 5th place finish is likely next season.

Having a legit backup at PG will do wonders for us next season. How I see the lineup next year:

Taplin
Scott
Jeffries
Etou
Magnay

and a quality bench squad of
Jackson
Joiner
Henderson
Igbanu
Edogi

with Wheeler, Korita, and Artison thrown in as the game calls for.

I don't see us RS'ing anyone unless they're upperclassmen because next year's grad class will be sizeable and you don't really want to add to a big freshman class like that if you want to keep the class sizes balanced.

 

[TU_BLA]

You forgot Artison and Henderson who may be the best scoring guard we have. Honestly I like Igbanu starting as he gives us an inside offensive presence that no one in the conference could handle in man defense this year. Heck, the number of times he beat double teams that crashed him during the zone defense was impressive. If he improves his recognition of where the double team is coming from and where he needs to kick the ball out to, the more dangerous he will become. Provided Scott and Taplin can do their jobs and hit the outside shots, the less zone we will see and Igbanu becomes even more of an inside monster. Taplin needs to shoot more from the outside as he shoots well from outside but he doesn't seem terribly confident. Henderson can create his own shot from any point on the floor...he just needs to make some better decisions and understand game situation. He takes some dumb, rushed shots at times.

As for SMU, they change dramatically if Ojeleye goes to the NBA. What they are bringing in is not nearly as effective as he was and what they are losing is almost devastating knowing they are limited in scholarships for the next year. All of the burden falls to Shake as I don't see Landrum or Chargois being able to be all that effective in their first years and I've been off the McDowell train since I actually saw him play against D1 talent. Houston will become even more 1 dimensional and I don't see Temple recovering the way everyone else thinks they will. UCONN is the enigma. I am not sold on Ollie's coaching ability. That team has a lot of talent and it makes no sense why they are not very good consistently. CIncinnati loses Caupain and Clark (I believe). Washington is scary good, Evans can be scary good, and Cumberland has the potential to be the best player on the team (he scared me more than any other player on the court when he had the ball in his hands).

 

[cmullinsTU]

It looks like Houston might take a step

I haven't seen confirmations of this but Houston fans believe Rob Gray will be transferring out of Houston (I'm not sure why). If this happens they will definitely be taking a step back.

 

[astonmartin708]

You forgot Artison and Henderson who may be the best scoring guard we have. Honestly I like Igbanu starting as he gives us an inside offensive presence that no one in the conference could handle in man defense this year. Heck, the number of times he beat double teams that crashed him during the zone defense was impressive. If he improves his recognition of where the double team is coming from and where he needs to kick the ball out to, the more dangerous he will become. Provided Scott and Taplin can do their jobs and hit the outside shots, the less zone we will see and Igbanu becomes even more of an inside monster. Taplin needs to shoot more from the outside as he shoots well from outside but he doesn't seem terribly confident. Henderson can create his own shot from any point on the floor...he just needs to make some better decisions and understand game situation. He takes some dumb, rushed shots at times.

As for SMU, they change dramatically if Ojeleye goes to the NBA. What they are bringing in is not nearly as effective as he was and what they are losing is almost devastating knowing they are limited in scholarships for the next year. All of the burden falls to Shake as I don't see Landrum or Chargois being able to be all that effective in their first years and I've been off the McDowell train since I actually saw him play against D1 talent. Houston will become even more 1 dimensional and I don't see Temple recovering the way everyone else thinks they will. UCONN is the enigma. I am not sold on Ollie's coaching ability. That team has a lot of talent and it makes no sense why they are not very good consistently. CIncinnati loses Caupain and Clark (I believe). Washington is scary good, Evans can be scary good, and Cumberland has the potential to be the best player on the team (he scared me more than any other player on the court when he had the ball in his hands).

Henderson got better as the season progressed, but he still can hardly buy a layup because he hardly gets to the rim. I think Joiner will be an improvement in that regard. You're right about Taplin. If Taplin took a couple of Henderson type shots every game along with the layups he goes for now, we'd be better for it.

SMU will still be good without Ojeleye. They have the two Tulsa kids coming in, plus Jimmy Whitt (Transfer from Arkansas who sat out this season). Whitt looks like he can thrive under Jankovich. Plus William Douglas out of Memphis. He's a 4 star PG who looks to be legit and a quality SF in Everett Ray who is ranked as high as any of our recruits. Oh, and Jamall McMurray who was scoring 20 ppg for USF will be coming for them after Christmas break. They will still be VERY good. I'm hoping Jank leaves and some of the recruits go with him, leaving the ponies mediocre.

Houston won't be great if Grey leaves, unless they grab a diamond somewhere in the little time they have left. I agree on UCONN and Ollie, but they're still dangerous when he has good players. Cincy will still be Cincy.

 

[TUBballJunkie]

Interesting on Gray. Wonder if he's going to have his degree and could play somewhere immediately.

 

[drboobay]

Interesting on Gray. Wonder if he's going to have his degree and could play somewhere immediately.

If teams all raise their game and we end up 4th or 5th with 18 plus wins we will have a shot at the ncaa.

 

[nevadanatural]

Magnay may make big strides and get the starting job by next year but right now Igbanu is the man. As far as the league goes, UCONN had a ton of injuries this year, if they get those guys healthy they will be back near the top next year. My hope is that the entire conference is improved and we tear it up in the non-conference schedule so we can get 4-5 teams in the dance.

 

[hotterthanyourhusbandTU]

AWESOME thread...great assessment of the stats! Pretty darn objective view!

UCF should be really good next year.

 

[mcane]

Magnet should be sentenced to a muscle workout and good diet regime. If he does, he could be a first team AAC and an early NBA entrant.