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Mass Deportation and Tariff Wars.... What's our endgame?

astonmartin708

astonmartin708

I.T.S. Hall of Famer
Apr 17, 2012
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What happens to the economy when you take a tight labor market and remove a bunch of the lowest paid labor responsible for agricultural production as well as construction and menial labor?

When combined with Tariff driven price increases are we staring at a nuke being dropped on the US GDP the likes of which we haven't seen since 1930?
 
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that cheap labor force receives billions in additional compensation from the Government.

you back fill with able bodies from Government welfare.

win, win for the American Tax Payers.
 
aTUfan said:
that cheap labor force receives billions in additional compensation from the Government.

you back fill with able bodies from Government welfare.

win, win for the American Tax Payers.
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1. Any cheap labor force will receive billions from the government. Ask Walmart executives about it.

2. The labor market is already incredibly tight. How many people, capable of extremely strenuous physical labor, do you think aren’t working who could be?

3. Do they all live in agricultural areas? How are you going to hire that many workers before food starts rotting in fields?

4. This will drastically raise grocery prices. I thought you wanted cheap eggs?

Your entire premise sounds like Herbert Hoover "The fundamental business of the country, that is, production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis."

He said that 4 days prior to the largest stock market crash in US history,
 
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astonmartin708 said:
1. Any cheap labor force will receive billions from the government. Ask Walmart executives about it.

2. The labor market is already incredibly tight. How many people, capable of extremely strenuous physical labor, do you think aren’t working who could be?

3. Do they all live in agricultural areas? How are you going to hire that many workers before food starts rotting in fields?

4. This will drastically raise grocery prices. I thought you wanted cheap eggs?

Your entire premise sounds like Herbert Hoover "The fundamental business of the country, that is, production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis."

He said that 4 days prior to the largest stock market crash in US history,
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we did it in the 40s and 50, without them, and if they didn't make enough at one job, they worked a second
 
My guess and it’s completely a guess (might be wishful thinking as well).

1). I believe tariffs will be used more as a threat than a tool. That’s not to say tariffs won’t be enacted because come will come to pass. However, the threat of tariffs will be used to attempt to even the playing field with our trading partners who impose higher tariffs on our goods than we do theirs. I also believe tarrifs will be used to “encourage” foreign companies to build manufacturing plants in the U.S. I assume there will also be a carrot for those companies who do move manufacturing to our soil.

I do not expect tariffs to significantly raise inflation. The Pubs saw what just happened in the election and will not want to repeat the same imo

2). Deportation of illegals: My hope is we will take a measured approach here in trying to clean up the massive mess created over the past four years. We have millions and millions of illegals in the country. We have done an extremely poor job of keeping track of the same. If you’re in this country illegally and you break the law you should be deported. If you’re a gang member you should be deported.

We need to get a handle on who is here and where they are. A pause in accepting immigrants until we get this situation under control would be prudent. Canada just implemented such a program. I’m against mass round ups and deportation of illegals who have a good work history.
 
lawpoke87 said:
My guess and it’s completely a guess (might be wishful thinking as well).

1). I believe tariffs will be used more as a threat than a tool. That’s not to say tariffs won’t be enacted because come will come to pass. However, the threat of tariffs will be used to attempt to even the playing field with our trading partners who impose higher tariffs on our goods than we do theirs. I also believe tarrifs will be used to “encourage” foreign companies to build manufacturing plants in the U.S. I assume there will also be a carrot for those companies who do move manufacturing to our soil.

I do not expect tariffs to significantly raise inflation. The Pubs saw what just happened in the election and will not want to repeat the same imo

2). Deportation of illegals: My hope is we will take a measured approach here in trying to clean up the massive mess created over the past four years. We have millions and millions of illegals in the country. We have done an extremely poor job of keeping track of the same. If you’re in this country illegally and you break the law you should be deported. If you’re a gang member you should be deported.

We need to get a handle on who is here and where they are. A pause in accepting immigrants until we get this situation under control would be prudent. Canada just implemented such a program. I’m against mass round ups and deportation of illegals who have a good work history.
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There is no guarantee or even a hint from the admin that such measured approaches will be undertaken. Everything has pointed to more drastic interventions.
 
astonmartin708 said:
There is no guarantee or even a hint from the admin that such measured approaches will be undertaken. Everything has pointed to more drastic interventions.
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Yeah..I much more confident in my response regarding tariffs than my hope regarding immigration policy. I believe there would widespread support for deporting those who break the law or are associated with gangs. Much of that support is going to be lost when you start separating children from parents. Our immigration system is a huge cluster. One side has worked to get as many immigrants into this country even if it meant ignoring backgrounds and criminal activities. The other side wants them all out ignoring the human element. Both are wrong imo. Dems couldn’t find a middle ground. I doubt Pubs can either.
 
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aTUfan said:
we did it in the 40s and 50, without them, and if they didn't make enough at one job, they worked a second
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How amusing that you are ignorant about a sizable increase in immigration in the 40's and 50's mainly to harvest our crops. That's when we first started bringing in Mexicans to be our brute labor force. Go on making false statements, why change from your norm.
 
Gmoney4WW said:
How amusing that you are ignorant about a sizable increase in immigration in the 40's and 50's mainly to harvest our crops. That's when we first started bringing in Mexicans to be our brute labor force. Go on making false statements, why change from your norm.
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l
it was reported that immigrants paid $40,000,000,00.00 in taxes last year,
they take, cost and are given $156,000,000,000.00

negative net gain.
 
aTUfan said:
it was reported that immigrants paid $40,000,000,000.00 in taxes last year,
they take, cost and are given $156,000,000,000.00

negative net gain.
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Even if your figures are true, which is highly unikely considering the source, you are going to quibble about 115M subsidy. That figure in taxes is nothing to ensure our labor needs. Wow, what a niggardly qualm. Just to give you an idea of how miniscule that is, our annual military budget is 915 Billion. That is small change. That is .126 thousandths of a percent of our military budget. The government spends more than that when they sneeze.
 
so they pay about 4k in taxes and suck out 15k in handouts. That a lot of compensation for picking fruit.

I pay about 10k in taxes and get no reebees from the gov.
 
aTUfan said:
so they pay about 4k in taxes and suck out 15k in handouts. That a lot of compensation for picking fruit.

I pay about 10k in taxes and get no reebees from the gov.
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Then pay the massive increases in grocery prices. One way or another you will be paying for it.
 
Gmoney4WW said:
Even if your figures are true, which is highly unikely considering the source, you are going to quibble about 115M subsidy. That figure in taxes is nothing to ensure our labor needs. Wow, what a niggardly qualm. Just to give you an idea of how miniscule that is, our annual military budget is 915 Billion. That is small change. That is .126 thousandths of a percent of our military budget. The government spends more than that when they sneeze.
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Neither of you guys know how to count 0's.
 
TulsaBandit said:
Neither of you guys know how to count 0's.
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I Know he mistyped it. I know that it was in billions, not millions. I know he did not check me on that, which was intentional on my part. I also know he types out numbers instead of using m and b, which is ridiculous, so I pranked him. And not only does he mistype it, but he uses cents. That's really ridiculous. I guess I could have put up something like $56,000,000,000.36(56b+) which is a lot closer to the real figure in taxes taken.
 
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The expected economic disaster that would hit the US if the feds imposes a mass deportation plan is unfathomably larger than the paltry subsidy paid to undocumented laborers.

I find it so depressing that Republicans cant seem to understand the implications of what they are proposing (not just economically) They are effectively holding a gun to their own head, thinking that the chance they hit the person standing next to them makes pulling the trigger worth wile.
 
New analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) found that undocumented residents paid £25.7 billion into Social Security funds and $6 billion into Medicare in 2022; both programs that they are not entitled to use. In total, undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion, or roughly $9,000 per person, in taxes in 2022.

Add that reducing to taxes on Social Security income and the Trust Fund will be toast before the 2030's. Sorry GenXers.
 
watu05 said:
New analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) found that undocumented residents paid £25.7 billion into Social Security funds and $6 billion into Medicare in 2022; both programs that they are not entitled to use. In total, undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion, or roughly $9,000 per person, in taxes in 2022.

Add that reducing to taxes on Social Security income and the Trust Fund will be toast before the 2030's. Sorry GenXers.
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Darn those illegal British, coming over here, picking our fruit, and dumping their useless currency into our Social Security fund!
 
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aTUfan said:
how do they know if a tax payer is legal or not?
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You fill out an i9. However, the study uses reasonable estimates. It isn't unreasonable.

There are lots of taxes they are going to pay regardless of sales, property, gasoline, utilities, and any other excise taxes.

Income taxes are much harder to estimate because we don't know who pays them and who doesn't.

But let me give you just one for instance: I know guys who own roofing companies. One of them runs nine crews, but he 1099s every single one of them. Imagine how many of the guys on those crews are legal? I would venture to estimate 80% or less. I am probably being generous there, too. Is the owner legal? I don't know. Is he paying tax? I don't know. But his roofing company dude issuing a 1099. So the business income is known by the Feds to the crew owner so maybe he files and pays on his people or some of them. It depends if he doesn't want to pay FICA. But I imagine you would like to get the full deduction for the employees rather than avoid 7.5% in taxation and workers comp.

Do you know how many illegals are employed by chicken coops, farmers, meat packers, Trump hotels, janitors and resorts? Do you think they are claiming them or just handing them cash?
 
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