There's been a lot of academic focus over the last thirty years about how empires end with America's situation being at the center. American policy seems schizophrenic at times. We invade other countries; presidents run for office decrying natiion building (yet we do it), and our record in winning wars has been poor sine WW2. It's hard to see any appetite for war in the US now which raises the question of what the US would do if a resurgent China were to invade Taiwan. This article by British historian Niall Ferguson who is now at the conservative Hoover Institute and formerly taught at Harvard is pessimistic about avoiding conflict. HIs tool for examine the issue is largely based on factors that led to the end of the British empire and constributed to the start of WW2.
HIs economic view of China is less optimistic than many even without considering Xi's recent push toward a more centralized, less entrepreneurial economy. But that's unlikely to change the calculus much immediately except for the stockmarket.
HIs economic view of China is less optimistic than many even without considering Xi's recent push toward a more centralized, less entrepreneurial economy. But that's unlikely to change the calculus much immediately except for the stockmarket.
