Houston up 8 near half. Not sure why we’re not talking about this game more, but I’m pretty sure if Houston wins, we’re locked in at no lower than 4th for the conference tourney. We already own the tie break with UCF and they’re 3 behind us. If it’s between us an Memphis, I think the tie break ends up looking at the record against the teams going down the standings. We’ve both lost all of our games to Cincy, Houston and Wichita State. He’d to Head we split, then it would drop to UCF. We’re 1-0 vs UCF, Memphis lost both games to UCF.
Houston @ Memphis
- Thread starter TU_BLA
- Start date
We own the tie breaker so we have what’s equivalent to a 3 game lead. I don’t see any way at this point that we aren’t the #4 seed in the tourney.
This was a potentially bad result for TU. We now have to win two of three to finish fourth. Assuming Memphis wins their remaining games, and they should be favored in each, they would be 11-7 and with the win over Houston would have the tie-breaker on us.
Unless we beat cincy...
Win that and we gain the tiebreaker back as long as cincy finishes ahead of Houston. We could lose to ECU & Temple then.
We beat Cincy and then it gets interesting as it would drop Cincinnati to the 3 as I think both Wichita and Houston would win the tie break with them. And it would make it virtually impossible for us to drop out of the 4. I would hope for a neutral site game against WSU in the semis as that is the most favorable matchup. Houston is dangerous because they shoot so well. They’re garbage on D but they can shoot the ball
If we beat Cincy they are still one game ahead of Houston. They would have to lose again to Wichita St. and Houston not lose for them to end up in a tie with Houston. Houston is the only concern on the tie breaker at this point.(Memphis) All they would have to do is finish ahead of Houston for us to win the tie breaker.
I prefer to look on the bright side. We are closer to third than we are to fifth. We are actually still mathematically alive for the number one seed. We win 3, Cinn and WSU lose three and Houston loses 2. That would leave us tied with Cinn and having the tiebreaker over them. I'll go out on a limb and say that won't happen, but I feel pretty good about getting a bye for the tourney.
Cincinnati and Wichita can't lose three.
And if Wichita loses two we end up tied with them and lose the tiebreaker.(Along with Houston if we end up tied.) Best possible scenario is we end up tied with Wichita and get a second seed. Tulsa 3-0 Wichita 1-2 Houston 1-2 Cincinnati 0-3
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Now that is the glass half full approach. This scenario would initiate a melt down of epic proportions by the prognosticators and talking heads.
No, that’s the glass overflowing scenario. Even eternal optimists like me can’t imagine that happening. Beating ECU and Temple are the most important at this point. In fact I would hold Taplin out tomorrow if he wasn’t completely well so he could be at full strength next week. While a win at Cincinnati would be very satisfying in the long run it would be insignificant by itself.
If Cincinnati lost to us and Wichita St. they could end up in a tie with Houston and possibly get the 3rd seed, which would make our win insignificant in the tie breaker with Memphis. That would make it important that we win at ECU or Temple. We could have it wrapped up before the Temple game with two wins or have it wrapped up with a loss by Memphis(somewhere along the way) or a win at Temple. If Taplin's injury still is significant and could be aggravated to cause problems against ECU or both Temple and ECU then it will be an interesting dilemma for Haith. A Cincinnati win by us could end up being insignificant or significant. A lot of it depends on a lot of it, not an easy choice to make.
Aside from key injury, I see no reason TU should not win 2 of last 3.
20-12 finish "might" earn TU an NIT bid playing all road games, but doubt TU would be a lock.
TX
I think you gotta treat tmrw as must win, all hands on deck even at 70%. Maybe give Taplin more min at 2 guard?
I'm no RPI guru, but I would think winning at Cincy, then beating ECU, Temple, and Cincy again in AAC tourney puts TU on the bubble. Finishing 22-11, winning 9 of last 10 with 3 quality RPI wins over final 6 games in tough AAC should get committees attention.
Of course, if TU can beat Cincy 2x down stretch, they should also feel good about beating WSU and UH, thus earning auto bid.
Remember, it's March Madness.
TX
I know this didn't mean anything, but one of the websites picked us to win tomorrow
I hope both our squads win out because I want that 5 seed.
easy first round game then a match-up with Tulsa...here's hoping.
easy first round game then a match-up with Tulsa...here's hoping.
The 5th seed does have a huge advantage over the 4th seed by getting used to the court and the tournament. I don't buy the "players tired out" theory as they recently played 2 games a day in the AAU summer.
I was around when TU lost to Houston in the NCAA because Houston had a play in game and we got the bye. I also saw Houston win four in a row at the BOK to win it all. Byes are dangerous if you are not ready at the starting gate and we have been guilty in not being ready on several occasions this year. But would like the honor of being 4th anyway.
Every time I see this mentioned it makes me think of the “year we were waiting for” at the BOK Center. TU was down 14 at halftime to a BAD Rice team. They ended up winning, but that game has always stood out to me as a “There is absolutely no reason it’s even close”.
Yes, teams can get momentum playing the first game. But TU has to go 19-11 in the regular season to have a shot at the NIT. And doing that gets the 4th seed. And agreed that playing a horrible USF team would not be good for the RPI.
The Houston and Louisville losses in 82 and 84 were after getting a bye, while those two teams played warm-up games against creampuffs. Tulsa started off horribly in both games. There was a day in between the first and second round games.
The Houston and Louisville losses in 82 and 84 were after getting a bye, while those two teams played warm-up games against creampuffs. Tulsa started off horribly in both games. There was a day in between the first and second round games.
Memphis is going to have to work against South Florida. Let them have tired legs and trap them again and again.
But for now, let’s beat Temple.
But for now, let’s beat Temple.
