Horrific modeling from our health "experts"

[lawpoke87]

Not only have practically all models been off by well over 100% they all have missed on the high end. Why? The model from the Tulsa County Health Dept predicted deaths in Tulsa county alone of 1300 people. The current model from the OSDH bears little resemblance do the actual data coming in and that model was done last week? Just one example

 

[lawpoke87]

Oklahoma's model

https://content.govdelivery.com/att...634/osdh_transmission_dynamics_model-eng3.pdf

 

[ctt8410]

Because it’s incredibly difficult to model such a complex system with so many unknown variables. The value of a model is to provide probabilistic outputs in a variety of scenarios to inform decision-making. In this case, there were some inputs we knew with high confidence (how pathogens spread between people) and many that we knew with very low confidence (specific attributes of SARS-CoV-2). If you read the primary sourcing for many of these models, you’ll see the uncertainty quantified as well as the effect of changing various inputs. Models are not crystal balls. That doesn’t mean they aren’t incredibly useful and it doesn’t mean the modeling was “horrific” when we hit a 10th percentile outcome.

 

[lawpoke87]

Because it’s incredibly difficult to model such a complex system with so many unknown variables. The value of a model is to provide probabilistic outputs in a variety of scenarios to inform decision-making. In this case, there were some inputs we knew with high confidence (how pathogens spread between people) and many that we knew with very low confidence (specific attributes of SARS-CoV-2). If you read the primary sourcing for many of these models, you’ll see the uncertainty quantified as well as the effect of changing various inputs. Models are not crystal balls. That doesn’t mean they aren’t incredibly useful and it doesn’t mean the modeling was “horrific” when we hit a 10th percentile outcome.

I understand there’s no crystal ball. What I don’t understand is why even after seeing real data for weeks they are still far overshooting their numbers. I also don’t understand why they’re predicting a surge in cases a month after quarantine procedures began. Predictions which don’t match data we’ve seen from other countries nor does is match what these same people are telling us about the quarantine process?

How does the Tulsa County Health Dept ever predict 1300 deaths in Tulsa County less than two weeks ago? There is zero accountability by the media regarding these models as well. Not one outlet has called out Tulsa County.

 

[URedskin54]

I think maybe the real problem is our health experts and politicians that went out and presented this data as if they had great confidence that the middle to higher end projections would be accurate. You can't fault people who are trying to build these models without much information to go on. They have a high degree of uncertainty built in and as Ctt said, if you go to the ihme model website they show you the broad range of possible outcomes. Now, I don't know how useful a model is that gives you a range of 30K to 180K deaths, but because it gives you that range it is expressing how much uncertainty there truly is. Others did a poor job of articulating that uncertainty.

 

[lawpoke87]

The Univ Wash model which the Fed’s use was just updated and has reduced the projected death toll for Oklahoma from 969 to 359. Our “surge” also occurred 3 days ago instead of next week per the updated.

 

[HuffyCane]

It’s a massive money grab that defeats Republicans. It looks great now but there will be heck to pay soon. The story when this is all over may very well be the end of the Democratic Party. The country was bankrupted and Biden was nowhere to be found.

 

[aTUfan]

How does the daily death rate this year compare to past years.