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astonmartin708

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Just came across an advanced stats page that's pretty interesting. It's supposed to account for not just player's individual performance but also the performance of the rest of the team while they're on the floor. I'm not 100% sure of the mechanics of the Bayesian model they use, but they have data going back several years. It also has metrics for what position a player is usually playing (probably related to rebounds and blocks) but they also have a predictive metric for if that player is more of a creator or a receiver of offense.

Interesting tidbits... the top players in the country are typically well represented at the top of the overall metrics.

For Tulsa specifically, there have been interesting players that popped out to me. Darien Jackson's performance during the conference tournament season was apparently extremely special for us. Isaiah Hill was underrated in that season. He was a poor individual performer on offense and defense but the team's efficiency jumped significantly with him on the floor.

This season, Curtis Haywood was apparently important for us despite being a no-show in my opinion. Richie was the opposite. Maybe Haith was seeing something I wasn't. Or maybe, the way he was playing the two had something to do with their numbers???

For newcomers, Griffin from UTA posted a HORRIBLE overall efficiency at UTA, specifically related to his poor defensive play as well as the team's poor defense while he was on the floor. Something to watch out for next season. Horne had a decent year for Colorado, but he was more of a role player in terms of his contributions in efficiency and production.

 

nevadanatural

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As fans we look for specific things, primarily scoring and rebounding, and miss a huge amount of things players do to help the team. Coaches watch the players intensely in practice and break down film after every game. I’ll often watch a play during a game and say “why did that guy do this or that” but I know I don’t know half as much about the team as the coaches do. Advanced stats usually show things we as fans don’t notice. One thing that always bugs me is when we have a poor shooting game some doofus will say “we need to get a point guard, this guy didn’t have very many assists “. The PG can make all the right passes but if the guy on the other end doesn’t put it in the hole there’s no assist.
 
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astonmartin708

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As fans we look for specific things, primarily scoring and rebounding, and miss a huge amount of things players do to help the team. Coaches watch the players intensely in practice and break down film after every game. I’ll often watch a play during a game and say “why did that guy do this or that” but I know I don’t know half as much about the team as the coaches do. Advanced stats usually show things we as fans don’t notice. One thing that always bugs me is when we have a poor shooting game some doofus will say “we need to get a point guard, this guy didn’t have very many assists “. The PG can make all the right passes but if the guy on the other end doesn’t put it in the hole there’s no assist.
Interestingly, I saw another advanced metric that listed assists from all players, to all players in a circular chart. The data only went back to Taplin's last season, so I didn't post it, but I think one of the important things on offense can be who the assists are going to rather than how many assists are being dished. It tells you which guys the PG is actively looking for. In Taplin's case, he was passing a ton to guys like Etou + Igbanu (obvious), and quite a bit to Corey Henderson, but Daquan Jeffries didn't have many assists from him in comparison to Etou / Igbanu / Henderson. You can ask yourself, would we have been a better team if Taplin had started seeking Jeffries out more than Henderson? Maybe Jeffries with his efficiency would have been a better target for some of those possessions.

One thing we can't see which would be valuable, but hard to draw from available data, is failed pass attempts and who they're going to. Are we seeking out the right players in certain situations? How much of that is related to the other team's specific defensive scheme for that night, and how much of it is an overarching tendency of our offense?

Link to the "College Basketball Assist Networks" App.
 

TU 1978

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The other thing to note is the dropoff in performance from the previous season. The loss of Wainwright and a decent defense did us no favors.
 

astonmartin708

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In any case this leads me to believe that we will have to do some significant coaching with Griffin if we want him to stay on the floor because of his defense.

Who the heck is going to run point for us? It seems like we’re missing two players. Another primary ball handler and a big man.
 

seniorgolfer

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The other thing to note is the dropoff in performance from the previous season. The loss of Wainwright and a decent defense did us no favors.
True.....On defense, we never found decent replacements for Horne and Igbanu....
while neither was great at defenders, they were better than their replacements,
who were somewhere close to awful....

On offense, we had a great inside threat in Igbanu, that kept the defense very
honest...Idowu was kinda sorta like that for the first half of the season, but
slumped badly the last half.....in 2019 Horne shot 3's in the mid-30's range....Doesn't
sound great, but we never found an adequate replacement, particularly one that
played both ends well...

I'm glad he is coming back!
 

nevadanatural

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I think Horne‘s D was greatly underrated by most. He had a knack for getting his hands in the passing lanes and could bother people from the 2 through the 5. It will be good to see him on the floor again next season.
 
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I think we were too hard on Haywood. His defense was good. Just needs to hit his shots.
 

astonmartin708

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I think we were too hard on Haywood. His defense was good. Just needs to hit his shots.
His defense was OK. He fouled in as situations which hurt us. Something doesn’t square with what I saw on the court last season and some of these stats.
 

astonmartin708

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I don't think we have a PG. The kid from Wichita might be the best option .
I agree that the kid from Wichita is an option but expecting much out of a Freshman could be disaster out.

Simpson might be an option as well. He played a lot off the ball last season with Williams and Joiner getting the minutes there. I’m just not sure if giving him the full control of the offense is a smart idea.
 

Gmoney4WW

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Griffin came out of HS as a point guard. I have a feeling it will be open to every guard we are adding + Embery at first.(Pritchard, Griffin, Elkamil, Chapman, and Embery)
 

astonmartin708

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Griffin came out of HS as a point guard. I have a feeling it will be open to every guard we are adding + Embery at first.(Pritchard, Griffin, Elkamil, Chapman, and Embery)
Griffin's performance defensively at UTA worries me. He's a good shooter, but if you look at those advanced stats, he was a liability for them.
 

TU4ever2

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D was good in spots. He had his share of "I'm lost" moments.


The reason he is showing up so much in advanced metrics shows you why advanced metrics aren't predictive and can often "lie" context is so important.

For a non-stats example look at Westbrookr and all of his triple doubles, they make him look great, but when you realize he gets these largely by cutting out the easy build up stats from other teammates it becomes pretty clear why his teams will never win an NBA title.

In this case Haywood is helped because of the fact we are such a God awful rebounding team and he prefers to shoot lay-ups or 3s. He is a stat nerds dream in his shot selection. Since Haywood is a decent wing rebounder and particularly at the end of the season we sat our bigs, he was the best rebounder on the team. He is a decent passer as well. His defense is slightly above average. In an awful year those things will show up as a "good player" on a bad team.

What advanced stats won't tell you are things like how him being a complete liability on offense hurt other players and led to his open misses/makes.

It also won't tell you how the obvious favoritism towards Haywood and the defensive liability KES affected a young core, eroded our only offensive post players confidence, or frustrated our senior leaders.
 

TU_BLA

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For a non-stats example look at Westbrookr and all of his triple doubles, they make him look great, but when you realize he gets these largely by cutting out the easy build up stats from other teammates it becomes pretty clear why his teams will never win an NBA title.
Eh, I like Westbrook. He does a lot of good things for his teams, he's the fastest PG in the game when it comes to getting the ball up the court right now. He does shoot too much. I don't think his triple doubles were the by product of stat hoarding (for the most part). I think his number of rebounds may have been by design to get into transition as quick as possible and not need an outlet pass to do it. Obviously his ability to get into the lane and draw defenders sets up a ton of easy assists and 10 ppg is not hard for an A player in the NBA. When you add to it that he played with Durant and the assists come easy. His best seasons were without Durant. 2016-2017 was his first season to avg. a triple double. That team had very little top end talent after Westbrook and largely a roster considered to be in rebuilding mode and yet they still made the playoffs...likely something that would not have happened if he doesn't do what he did.
 

astonmartin708

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The reason he is showing up so much in advanced metrics shows you why advanced metrics aren't predictive and can often "lie" context is so important.

For a non-stats example look at Westbrookr and all of his triple doubles, they make him look great, but when you realize he gets these largely by cutting out the easy build up stats from other teammates it becomes pretty clear why his teams will never win an NBA title.

In this case Haywood is helped because of the fact we are such a God awful rebounding team and he prefers to shoot lay-ups or 3s. He is a stat nerds dream in his shot selection. Since Haywood is a decent wing rebounder and particularly at the end of the season we sat our bigs, he was the best rebounder on the team. He is a decent passer as well. His defense is slightly above average. In an awful year those things will show up as a "good player" on a bad team.

What advanced stats won't tell you are things like how him being a complete liability on offense hurt other players and led to his open misses/makes.

It also won't tell you how the obvious favoritism towards Haywood and the defensive liability KES affected a young core, eroded our only offensive post players confidence, or frustrated our senior leaders.
I agree.
 

astonmartin708

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Eh, I like Westbrook. He does a lot of good things for his teams, he's the fastest PG in the game when it comes to getting the ball up the court right now. He does shoot too much. I don't think his triple doubles were the by product of stat hoarding (for the most part). I think his number of rebounds may have been by design to get into transition as quick as possible and not need an outlet pass to do it. Obviously his ability to get into the lane and draw defenders sets up a ton of easy assists and 10 ppg is not hard for an A player in the NBA. When you add to it that he played with Durant and the assists come easy. His best seasons were without Durant. 2016-2017 was his first season to avg. a triple double. That team had very little top end talent after Westbrook and largely a roster considered to be in rebuilding mode and yet they still made the playoffs...likely something that would not have happened if he doesn't do what he did.
I like him when he was younger, but his style has become more selfish after that MVP season (partly out of necessity in OKC). I think his athleticism hasnt ever been quite the same after his knee injury against Houston, and the defense that he made his name for when he got into the league has slipped.
 

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Westbrook was a great defensive player when he came in league. He doesn’t really play defense anymore. He is a weak shooter and surprisingly bad at free throws for all the havoc he creates in the lane. I love watching him play and want him to win, but man, I just don’t think he is all that great other than putting up silly stats. Unless he wants to be a role player on a good team, he’s not going to win one with that contract,
 

TU_BLA

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Westbrook was a great defensive player when he came in league. He doesn’t really play defense anymore. He is a weak shooter and surprisingly bad at free throws for all the havoc he creates in the lane. I love watching him play and want him to win, but man, I just don’t think he is all that great other than putting up silly stats. Unless he wants to be a role player on a good team, he’s not going to win one with that contract,
I agree on the shooting and I always thought he took way too many 3s with his ability to get into the lane (and with guys like Durant and George on his side) And the FT shooting should be better.
 

TU4ever2

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Eh, I like Westbrook. He does a lot of good things for his teams, he's the fastest PG in the game when it comes to getting the ball up the court right now. He does shoot too much. I don't think his triple doubles were the by product of stat hoarding (for the most part). I think his number of rebounds may have been by design to get into transition as quick as possible and not need an outlet pass to do it. Obviously his ability to get into the lane and draw defenders sets up a ton of easy assists and 10 ppg is not hard for an A player in the NBA. When you add to it that he played with Durant and the assists come easy. His best seasons were without Durant. 2016-2017 was his first season to avg. a triple double. That team had very little top end talent after Westbrook and largely a roster considered to be in rebuilding mode and yet they still made the playoffs...likely something that would not have happened if he doesn't do what he did.

OKC last year was a rebuilding year even more so and you saw what a team first point guard did with them. Durant was pretty much the only player gone from championship contender when he left OKC. It's not by accident that both Harden and Durant have had more individual and team success than Westbrook in everything but triple doubles.

Westbrook doesn't help teams win, OKC should have traded Westbrook away and likely Harden and Durant win them a title. Westbrook just sucks up rebounds other people would get and takes shots other people would make. I watched Adams repeatedly not grab rebounds so Westbrook could snag them. Which doesn't seem like a big deal till you think about how much better the flow of the game is with a nice outlet pass and the sort of bad habits that required passiveness creates in the team.

Westbrook will finish his career as a triple double phenom, with zero rings, and will widely be considered the best player to not win one. His stats will be great though.
 

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