Game of Interest (1.7.20) Post USF Win Edition

[loca2874]

Got a great win in Florida yesterday afternoon. We did not move up in our net, but South Carolina did move up to a Q2 now.

We only have 1 game today and that is an American game. the lower conferences start back tomorrow.

Todays Game

Cincinnati 142 at SMU 50 6:00 p.m. ESPNU


NET Rankings Through January 6

Houston 5 Up 2
SMU 50 No Change
Tulsa 63 No Change
Wichita St. 68 Down 4
UCF 74 Down 1
Memphis 97 No Change
East Carolina 106 Up 5
South Fla. 126 Down 8
Cincinnati 142 No Change
Tulane 162 Down 1
Temple 164 Down 4

Quadrant Tracker

Q1

Win

Houston H W 5

Loss

Q2

Win

Memphis A W 97
South Fla. A W 126

Loss

South Carolina N L 94
TCU N L 83
Wichita St. H L 68

Q3

Win

Cincinnati A W 142

Loss

Q4

Wins

Northwestern St. H W 330
UT Arlington H W 234

Loss

 

[Weatherdemon]

So our only losses right now are Q2?
That's a nice change. Especially if it holds.

 

[I.I.]

Need Memphis, South Carolina and TCU to come on strong. Need that Q1 win over Memphis.

 

[GoldenCaneKC]

No change after a 10 point road win against a decent team? That’s surprising...

 

[Weatherdemon]

No change after a 10 point road win against a decent team? That’s surprising...

No doubt!

 

[loca2874]

No change after a 10 point road win against a decent team? That’s surprising...

They took away the 10 point thing from the equation. It now goes off efficiency

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...mula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/amp/

 

[loca2874]

We are still at 63 and Houston continuing to win along with SMU and Wichita state can help us move up as well. If we can get under 50 then I believe that will get us an at large bid. TCU and South Carolina keep winning and stay Q2 or better and this looks good for us

 

[URedskin54]

No change after a 10 point road win against a decent team? That’s surprising...

When the initial NET was released there were computational errors because some games had not been entered. The next day the NET for many teams changed dramatically despite the fact that they did not play a game. Unfortunately there is no way to tell what games have been included in the calculations because the NCAA will not tell us how they do it. They are intentionally non-transparent about this and the mid-major fan/conspiracy theorist in me is really suspicious of it.

 

[HuffyCane]

God I hope college football doesn’t turn into this when the deal expires in 5 years.

 

[TU4ever2]

When the initial NET was released there were computational errors because some games had not been entered. The next day the NET for many teams changed dramatically despite the fact that they did not play a game. Unfortunately there is no way to tell what games have been included in the calculations because the NCAA will not tell us how they do it. They are intentionally non-transparent about this and the mid-major fan/conspiracy theorist in me is really suspicious of it.

This is also not a rating, it's a ranking. Right now because there are drastic differences in the number of games played teams ratings can change drastically if they have played one or three games while some teams with ten or eleven games have smaller changes in their ratings.

Since other teams are part of your rating when they move you move. So if an opponents opponent moves a lot by positive or negative rates they will have a knock on with you through the common opponent having their rating change. So our win over Houston gave us a boost when they beat WSU, but our rating took a hit because WSU lost.

Then add in that say another team close to your rating played a better game or better opponent and so their rating improved a little more than you so they jump you in the ranking.
We'll get fewer changes as more games get played and the averages start having real meanings. It's super early for some of these systems to show any sort of stability.

Include the intentionally black box nature so the committee can get the numbers for the teams they want and yeah it's all a mess.

 

[panicstricken]

You have to think TCU is going to improve a lot. Thats a pretty good team.

 

[GoldenCaneKC]

Any advice on who I should be cheering for in the SMOO-Sincy game? I’m torn between wanting all the other top teams in the conference to lose so we can win the regular season championship/top seed versus wanting other top teams to win so our conference perception improves and our wins over them are more valuable.

 

[I.I.]

Any advice on who I should be cheering for in the SMOO-Sincy game? I’m torn between wanting all the other top teams in the conference to lose so we can win the regular season championship/top seed versus wanting other top teams to win so our conference perception improves and our wins over them are more valuable.

That's a great question. You kind need SMU to win to give us another Q1 opponent when we go there, but if we want to win the conference, we need them to lose. I would love to hear ctt's thoughts on this. Usually I root against the other top contenders as it is hard to deny the AAC champion a bid . But beating AAC opponents who are Q1 on the road when we play them looks really good for us.

 

[Henry Kendall]

You root against SMU because they suck at life.

 

[Henry Kendall]

..... and speaking of SMU, they are about to go down to Cincinnati at home. They are the definition of a team that is less than the sum of their parts.

 

[libertychamp]

..... and speaking of SMU, they are about to go down to Cincinnati at home. They are the definition of a team that is worse than the sum of their parts.

It’s over smoo loses gets 2nd loss and Cincy still has 3 losses stomped by 7 lol

 

[loca2874]

The game against UCF has been postponed due to COVID-19 concerns on the UCF squad. No make up date yet. Next game Wednesday at Wichita State. I think this is a good tone to reschedule the Arkansas or ORU game

 

[I.I.]

The game against UCF has been postponed due to COVID-19 concerns on the UCF squad. No make up date yet. Next game Wednesday at Wichita State. I think this is a good tone to reschedule the Arkansas or ORU game

Do not reschedule the ORU game. A loss would mean no post season. And they are playing good enough to win. I've seen our 32-5 team lose to ORU. It can happen.

 

[TU4ever2]

We need to have an opening in the week to try and play ORU they go back to back on weekends.

Arkansas will be harder because they have games seperated like we do. So we need an open period to line up with their open period.

Pretty sure we can slid ORU in for a Tuesday/Wednesday game getting cancelled. Right now playing and staying in rythm is what is important not so much how we do it. Since the quarantine we have been able to just focus on playing and get some games in. Its allowed us to work through some things and figure stuff out.

 

[TU4ever2]

Also the women's game is moved up to 2 pm because it was originally a double header with the man's game, with that cancelled they will move it up for better travel.

It will be on Saturday and should be a good game on ESPN+

 

[I.I.]

We need to have an opening in the week to try and play ORU they go back to back on weekends.

Arkansas will be harder because they have games seperated like we do. So we need an open period to line up with their open period.

Pretty sure we can slid ORU in for a Tuesday/Wednesday game getting cancelled. Right now playing and staying in rythm is what is important not so much how we do it. Since the quarantine we have been able to just focus on playing and get some games in. Its allowed us to work through some things and figure stuff out.

Tell me how playing ORU will help us?

 

[libertychamp]

Tell me how playing ORU will help us?

It won’t a win will hurt us and a loss would really hurt us like Lamar oswu uta Yoolar We should never play oru again until they join a real conference why do you think our 32 and 5 team was an 8 seed Oru loss?

 

[mcane]

ORU has a home conference game Saturday .
No way we play them before WSU

I would like a game vs NSU for example

 

[I.I.]

Enjoy the time off for some quality practice. It's hard to find good practice time with 2 games a week. This is not a time to go looking for a game to possibly lose or get somebody hurt in the middle of conference season.

 

[loca2874]

Well Cincinnati beat the Smoo on the road 76-69

 

[nevadanatural]

Tell me how playing ORU will help us?

Wouldn’t a road win against ORU currently be a Q2 win?

 

[loca2874]

Wouldn’t a road win against ORU currently be a Q2 win?

Yes away would be through 135 and they are 124

 

[loca2874]

I saw this that talks about the Adjusted Net Efficiency and the Team Value Index.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nc...ew-college-basketball-ranking-replace-rpi?amp

 

[TU4ever2]

It won’t a win will hurt us and a loss would really hurt us like Lamar oswu uta Yoolar We should never play oru again until they join a real conference why do you think our 32 and 5 team was an 8 seed Oru loss?

Jesus Christ this is not what our program is.

1. We should play them because it's a crosstown rivalry even though we don't like to say so, because it's good for basketball in this city.

2. This is not the era of RPI, even playing a bad ORU team and beating them down will give us a positive improvement in our rating.

3. This year ORU is a quad 2 game, we had two quad 2 games at a neutral cite and lost both. The rest of our ooc schedule won't even register. A win vs ORU will help our resume considerably.

4. We scheduled the damn game and then had to postpone because of Covid. What are we Cincinnati's football team this year? If WSU cancels and they won't reschedule it so they can win the conference how pissed off would we be?

We play the game because it's the right thing to do.

 

[GoldenCaneKC]

Agreed. They say if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. It’s also true that if you want to be the best, you have to beat the worst. Can’t be scared to play inferior teams just because there’s a chance they’ll beat you.

 

[URedskin54]

Cost benefit analysis aside, I don't want to be the pansy school that won't play someone because we're afraid we might lose. That's just me though