Electoral total guess

[Gmoney4WW]

Georgia was estimated to have 61,000 ballots to count this morning. With Biden down by 19,500 starting the day, out of 11,300 ballots tabulated, Biden has tallied 8,000 to Trump's 3,300, cutting the lead to 14,000.

If it continues with that same ratio, Biden will lose the state by 1,685 votes out of a pop. of 10.62 million.

That's Trump winning that state by 1.6 ten thousandths of a percent.(.00016)

You can't get an state election closer than that.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

I'll die laughing in bitter sadness if it turns out they tie at 269 each.

f Biden just wins Georgia it's 269-269, just wins Nevada, Arizona 270-268, or just wins NC 268-270. Lots of possibilities for as close to 269 all, as is possible.

Ughhh, all over again!

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Wonder Biden would do if he just won NC???

We know what Trump will do, and is preparing to do, if Biden comes on top in any combination.

The only situation Trump might back off would be if Biden won 4 or 5 of the states still in play.

 

[cmullinsTU]

I ran some numbers, and I'm fairly confident Biden will win NV, AZ, and PA.

 

[URedskin54]

I ran some numbers, and I'm fairly confident Biden will win NV, AZ, and PA.

Yeah it's over. He only has a realistic shot in AZ

 

[aTUfan]

Ok now that it is over, can all the talking heads and smug hosts please shut the fxxx up.

 

[eastcane]

If it continues with that same ratio, Biden will lose the state by 1,685 votes out of a pop. of 10.62 million.

That's Trump winning that state by 1.6 ten thousandths of a percent.(.00016)

You can't get an state election closer than that.

18,936 ballots left, Trump up by 3,486.

 

[astonmartin708]

My guess is Georgia will be decided by a couple hundred votes. Biden should win Nevada due to the nature and the location of most of the ballots there. Most pundits are saying he will take PA but I'm not 100% sold on that. Trump probably takes AZ. In any case this election is going to be decided by fewer voters than attend some of the large HS's in the Tulsa area.... Despite the fact that Biden will finish with a several million vote lead in the popular vote. Stupid.

 

[astonmartin708]

What do you guys say.... Why don't we go back to second place becoming the VP? I can just imagine Biden saying "Would you shut up man" in cabinet meetings

 

[URedskin54]

Election update:

 

[Gmoney4WW]

18,936 ballots left, Trump up by 3,486.

Trump by 1805, with 14,000 left uncounted.

Even if you count voters instead of population of the state, that's 3.7 ten thousandths of the voters.

At that rate 1805 is going to be gone in less than 5400 additonally counted votes.
The rest(8,600 remaining ballots) would just determine how much Biden wins by.

That would put Biden ahead by approximately 2400 votes. Still a very, very small margin.
(approximately .0005 of voters)

 

[URedskin54]

Trump by 1805, with 14,000 left uncounted.

Even if you count voters instead of population of the state, that's 3.7 ten thousandths of the voters.

At that rate 1805 is going to be gone in less than 5400 additonally counted votes.
The rest(9,600 remaining ballots) would just determine how much Biden wins by.

That would put Biden ahead by approximately 3,500 votes. Still a very, very small margin.
(approximately .000725 of voters)

Gonna come down to military ballots counted later in the week, but I think Biden still eeks it out by 1000 or so and then we have to wait on recounts.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Gonna come down to military ballots counted later in the week, but I think Biden still eeks it out by 1000 or so and then we have to wait on recounts.

I just realized I was off by a 1000 voters left to count, should have been 8600, not 9600. So I had to rejigger my very rounded estimates. Either way, 1000 or 2400 is tiny. That's the difference for a lot of larger precincts. That's laughable that it's the difference for the state, 50/50

 

[astonmartin708]

I just realized I was off by a 1000 voters left to count, should have been 8600, not 9600. So I had to rejigger my very rounded estimates. Either way, 1000 or 2400 is tiny. That's the difference for a lot of larger precincts. That's laughable that it's the difference for the state, 50/50

Again... it’s why we should have a popular vote.

 

[eastcane]

Biden up by 1,096 now in Georgia, count will end in Georgia Friday afternoon, a recount will transpire with victor less than .005, which is expected. In Pennsylvania, Trump up by around 18,500, though when the count ends late Friday, Biden is expected to hold a six digit lead.

 

[aTUfan]

Still don't understand why it takes 4 days to. Count votes.

 

[cmullinsTU]

In Pennsylvania, Trump up by around 18,500, though when the count ends late Friday, Biden is expected to hold a six digit lead.

I agree with this. I have him winning PA by 100-150k

 

[astonmartin708]

I agree with this. I have him winning PA by 100-150k

Would have won by 300 if he hadn’t spouted off about fracking

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Best guess is something like 300 Biden 238 Trump (yeah I know the state math probably doesn’t add up quite right). There would need to be a polling error roughly twice as large as 2016 for Trump to win. Not impossible but I just don’t see it

As long as Georgia(and Arizona) continue along the same trends...

Winner, winner, winner, chicken dinner.

Would be Biden 306 Trump 232.

 

[URedskin54]

As long as Georgia(and Arizona) continue along the same trends...

Winner, winner, winner, chicken dinner.

Would be Biden 306 Trump 232.

And the polling error was that large! Just not quite big enough