Electoral total guess
- Thread starter eastcane
- Start date
A close outcome will be a mess.
www.nbcnews.com
Trump says he's sending in his lawyers as soon as the election ends to review swing state votes
Trump told reporters, "We're going to go in night of, as soon as that election is over, we're going in with our lawyers."
www.nbcnews.com
Anymore, a close outcome is always a mess. Bush and the Hanging Chads or Trump and 3.5 years of investigation. What will the rioters do for an encore if Trump (wins which I doubt) ? Probably riot and loot.A close outcome will be a mess.
Trump says he's sending in his lawyers as soon as the election ends to review swing state votes
Trump told reporters, "We're going to go in night of, as soon as that election is over, we're going in with our lawyers."
Great choices again. Trump who is talking lawyers on Wednesday versus Biden who tries to pass a Delaware Red Hens jacket off as an Eagles jacket in Philly.
Trump was at -200 to win in Vegas (every $2 bet, you win $1), just after Trump's impeachment trial ended, that is true. But today's Vegas odds are Biden -185, and Trump is currently +155, I believe that's at Odd Sharks. A Trump 278+ should get very sweet odds.
There are eight states up for grabs. One of them doesn't matter in the count.(Iowa with 6 electoral votes) Trump would have to win 7 out of 8 of those states, and the one he lost would have to be Iowa. We shall see. Of the seven important states(excepting Iowa) It will be incredibly tough for Trump to come out on top in all seven. Just one of those seven going the other way beats Trump.
Trump has to win Florida and North Carolina to have a chance imo. He’s up 7 in Iowa so I don’t consider that state in play at this point. Assuming he can pull off Fla and NC he then must win one of the following three if my math is correct....Pa, Wi, Mi
Somehow this quote keeps popping into my mind....
William Shakespeare's Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2. "The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers".
Let's hope it's not close.
William Shakespeare's Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2. "The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers".
Let's hope it's not close.
Yeah Iowa has gone a little more towards Trump since I posted, and it didn't really affect the count anyway. I wasn't including Wisconsin and Michigan because they have it still at 11 or 12% favoring Biden. Arizona, Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina were the ones I was referring to, when I said all Biden has to do is win one of those states.
The Gateway Pundit is now predicting 312 Trump to 222 Biden. Michael Moore warned this could happen! Top Google trends are How can I vote Republican. Look at the Google search trends for yourself. #1 Search for PA was fracking!
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=joe biden.
We shall see tomorrow who is right or wrong and by how much!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...-state-numbers-will-send-democrats-off-cliff/
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=joe biden.
We shall see tomorrow who is right or wrong and by how much!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...-state-numbers-will-send-democrats-off-cliff/
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Nobody besides you and eastcane seem to be making a prediction, myself included. We are just talking about which races are close enough that it matters who wins that state and who does not. In that case there isn't a right or wrong.
Best guess is something like 300 Biden 238 Trump (yeah I know the state math probably doesn’t add up quite right). There would need to be a polling error roughly twice as large as 2016 for Trump to win. Not impossible but I just don’t see it
I’ll give Trump Texas, Georgia, NC, Fla, Zona, Ohio.
I’ll give Biden Pa, Wi, and Michigan to win the presidency.
It’s very unlikely Trump loses Ohio when he’s up 7 in Iowa. I think Biden wins those midwestern states but with Trump up by that margin in Iowa those states will be 3 to 4 point margins at the most.
Important to remember that was only one IA poll. Most of them show it very tight and a couple show Biden in the lead there.
You took the opinion right out of my head.
Although I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see one of those states you mentioned Trump getting, being a surprise Biden win. And vice versa on the ones you have for Biden winning.(namely Pennsylvania) Just because there are more states in play though,(6:3) I lean toward a surprise being more likely towards Biden than Trump.(Plus the percentages for Biden on Pa, Mi, & Wi are a little better than the 6 states for Trump)
All that said, my betting nature would go with it exactly as you said.
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That Iowa poll is from the best polling outfit in the country on has a long history of being extremely accurate in that state. Of all the polls out there this is the one I would trust the most..and.by a large margin.
I'll die laughing in bitter sadness if it turns out they tie at 269 each.
Yes but their poll from last month showed a 47-47 tie. There could have been that much movement in the last month, but a 7 point Trump lead is just as likely to be an outlier as the tie
Then it goes to house delegations and there a non-zero chance those will be tied too. It would get crazy
Oh yeah, if it were that close no one would concede prolly till inauguration day.
I think with the turnout being ridiculously high that all bets are off. Pollsters weight their responses by expected demographics of the electorate when they report their numbers. A big part of a pollsters reputation comes from how good they are at that not-so-simple task.
Basic example: If 20% of a poll's responses come from non-college educated white men, but the pollster thinks that group will make up 30% of the electorate for a given state, each on of those responses counts extra. That was actually their mistake in the rust belt in 2016. The pollsters seriously underestimated the turnout of non college educated white men in those states in particular. They were only off by 3% or so, but it was a pretty important 3%.
I am sure the pollsters have some very good models and ideas about who is going to show up and in what numbers. They study this for a living, after all. But they missed it in 2016 which was a more pedestrian year. And the more unusual the turnout is, the more the pollsters are in terra incognito. Texas, for one example, already has a higher voter turnout than in 2016.
I am thinking the polls may be wrong again this year. Maybe much more wrong than 2016. I wouldn't bet on any outcome. Could be a Biden landslide, could be Trump with room to spare. Or anything in between.
My gut tells me that if the polls are wrong, that probably favors Biden. But that much is not really based on anything other than some wishful thinking. Like I said, I wouldn't bet money on it.
Anyway, if you haven't voted yet, vote!
Basic example: If 20% of a poll's responses come from non-college educated white men, but the pollster thinks that group will make up 30% of the electorate for a given state, each on of those responses counts extra. That was actually their mistake in the rust belt in 2016. The pollsters seriously underestimated the turnout of non college educated white men in those states in particular. They were only off by 3% or so, but it was a pretty important 3%.
I am sure the pollsters have some very good models and ideas about who is going to show up and in what numbers. They study this for a living, after all. But they missed it in 2016 which was a more pedestrian year. And the more unusual the turnout is, the more the pollsters are in terra incognito. Texas, for one example, already has a higher voter turnout than in 2016.
I am thinking the polls may be wrong again this year. Maybe much more wrong than 2016. I wouldn't bet on any outcome. Could be a Biden landslide, could be Trump with room to spare. Or anything in between.
My gut tells me that if the polls are wrong, that probably favors Biden. But that much is not really based on anything other than some wishful thinking. Like I said, I wouldn't bet money on it.
Anyway, if you haven't voted yet, vote!
Was that 7 point lead poll a Selzer poll?
She has made her career by understanding the Iowa electorate well and pretty much always nailing that state's results. If she shows Biden down 7, it's probably a lost cause for him there. You never know, and there are always polling outliers, even among the very reputable, but it's definitely a bad sign for him.
I’ll bet ya lunch Trump wins Iowa by 5-9 points. That poll has a stellar track record. Yes...Seltzer.
They do and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won it by that margin. My point is that good pollsters release outliers too and this is just one poll.
Iowa is a toss up, a 5-9 point Iowa win for Trump isn't going to happen, Ernst is a 50/50 proposition at best as well in Iowa. Georgia looks more and more like a Biden pickup, plus both senatorial seats look to be going blue as well there. If the GOP gets a win in Georgia, it will be Perdue by a whisker.
I’m betting on another Bush v Gore, this time in Pennsylvania. Goes to a Supreme Court full of Trump picks.
With 91% of the vote counted in Iowa Trump is up exactly 7 points. Same for Ernst. Don’t challenge me or Seltzer again when it comes to Iowa politics.
The stupid thing about this is that we’re allowing margins of 10K voters in certain states to decide an election where one candidate has received approximately 4 million more votes than the other candidate. That’s roughly the population of Wyoming, DC, Vermont, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Alaska combined. And if Trump wins the electoral college their voices will mean nothing.
I stand corrected, I know little about Iowa outside of soy bean production, going by polls on 538's site. Knew the Trump turnout was strong when the line wrapped the Lowery fire department in Moody, Cherokee County, area is by far the most conservative in the county.
No prob. I wouldn’t have made such a statement with any other poll other than Seltzer. Those guys are money in Iowa and have been for years.
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