And if they don't win the Summit they're playing in the NIT. The could not lose another game until the finals of the Summit tournament and they're playing in the NIT this season.
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Not with a NET of 36. Now they can probably only lose 1 more game but winning the Summit tourney is not their only path.
A NET 45 North Carolina will make the tournament as an at large before a NET 36-40 ORU. I would say all of the teams NET 41-15 have a better shot at an at large than ORU does if everything stayed the same in the NET rankings and ORU doesn't win the Summit tournament. Those teams are:
41 Ohio State
42 Michigan State
43 NC State
44 Memphis
45 North Carolina
And trust me...I've seen all of those teams play at some point this year because they're force fed down our throats on ESPN...Ohio State and Michigan State are not good basketball teams. North Carolina is dysfunctional, Memphis...they have a bunch of guys occupying the coaches seats on the bench who couldn't coach the team out of a paper bag with a GPS and written instructions. NC State is the only one who is decent, IMO, and suffered some bad losses early but seem to be finding something lately.
There is no way if the final spot comes down to ORU and one of the schools above that the committee is taking ORU. I mean Michigan State has 5 quad 1 wins to OUR's 0 and ORU doesn't have a chance to get any from here on out. ORU has 0 quad 2-4 losses and Michigan State has a couple. You know the focus will be on ORU's lack of quad 1 wins and Michigan States multiple quad 1 wins
We will see. No team with a NET in the 30s was left out of the tourney last year. ORU also has an RPI of 35. NET 36 RPI 35 gets you in imo. Especially considering their recent Sweet 16 run.
With a Q3/4 loss their NET would plummet. Thus making it hard to get an at large… if they lost and somehow their NET stayed at 30-something, then they may have an outside shot.
That is the factor with which I’m unsure. How much would their NET and RPI drop with one Q3/4 loss?
I think it would just depend, but I’d imagine it would drop them out of the 30s and possibly out of the 40s if it was a really bad loss.
ORU is legitimately good this year (better than their sweet 16 team) and would make a dangerous 13 seed, but there's a 0% chance they get an at large bid with no Q1 wins and one Q2 win. The committee has made that part obvious, if not explicit, even after the change from RPI to NET.
I doubt they get an at large bid. Who have they beaten? Is Liberty their best win? They did play Houston close, like we did—only lost by 38.
They have a net of 36 with no quad 1 wins and only 1 quad 2 wins. Oklahoma State has a net of 35 with 4 quad 1 wins and 3 quad 2 wins. Who do you think they’d take between the 2.
And as TU BLA pointed out there are a number of teams like Ohio St Mich St, etc who have higher NET ranking but have lots more quad 1 and 2 wins. Ohio St 2,3 and Mich St 5, 3 and their NETS are 41 and 42.
I think ORU is getting too much of a net boost from their 38 point loss to the #1 ranked net team.
They wouldn't really even be that close. In that scenario, they would max out at 25-5 against D1 teams. But I'm not an absolutist, so I'll call it a 0.001% chance.
Assume they are also getting a boost from having zero Quad 2-4 losses. Losses are to NET #1, 6, 33, and 38. All of which are on the road. Secretly rooting for ORU to lose in the conference final so I can watch the NCAA squirm when and if they’re left out.
My point was that a loss in any other game(besides the championship) would put them in the NIT. The only way (besides going undefeated) that they get in, would be a loss in the championship. I don't know if I'd put it at .001%. Maybe as little as .1%.
Since when do you pick a team based on their losses? They had 5 chances for a quad 1/2 win and beat only Liberty. That’s not much of a resume.
I’m going to defend the little guy here. Those 4 chances against top 40 NET teams were all on the road. Small conference schools don’t get the opportunity to play those guys at home and even rarely on neutral sites. I would like to see the OOC record of the teams they will be competing with for the last at large bids against top 40 teams on the road. Having a NET and RPI in the top 40 should count for something imo.
I just thought of Mizzou since that’s where my brother went. They have a NET of 49 with a 18-6 record compared to ORU’s NET of 36 and a record of 17-5. Mizzou has 1 more win than ORU and 1 more loss. Mizzou also has no quad 3/4 losses but has a 3-6 quad 1 record and 4-0 quad 2 record.
Mizzou also had 4 wins against top 25 teams. There are a number of schools like Mizzou. When the committee starts comparing schools, I can’t see how ORU comes out ahead. Everything but the NET ranking favors other teams over ORU. Makes me wonder about the NET. And I believe the committee uses other factors beside NET to pick schools for the tourney.
Mizzou played KU, Illinois and Iowa St as non-conference opponents and beat ranked Illinois and Iowa State.
Were any of those at larges from a low major conference? Summit is not even good enough to be considered mid-major
My guess is that Mizzou played a relatively weak OOC schedule aside from those teams mentioned and has faired poorly on the road against quality competition given numerous opportunities. Mizzou did beat Illinios and Iowa State but neither were true road games. Schools like ORU don’t have those opportunities.
ORU RPI is 35 btw.
My guess would be no. A team from a conference like the Summit has to be pretty special to be ranked in the NET and RPI top 40. Assume that hasn’t happened very often.
OR who?
All this talk about oral is getting Barrister too excited.
All this talk about oral is getting Barrister too excited.
Except for the hookers it was a fairly normal evening.
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And that shows the fallacy of the NET. If you are rewarded for playing a crap conference and scheduling crappy teams like ORU does, that shows why the NET shouldn’t be used for a damn thing.
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