An objective look at TU football's historical performance

[Tulsafanzz]

There are many ways to measure a team's performance, with wins & losses being the most obvious. However, to look at a relative strength of a program over several years, I believe Sagarin ratings are an objective measure. Vegas uses Sagarin ratings in setting lines. You take the difference in 2 teams ratings & factor in homefield advantage & you will usually come within a point or 2 of the opening betting line on a game. For example, our current rating is 48.41. If we played a team rated at 68.41, we would be 20 point underdogs on a neutral field. The ratings are usually pretty accurate after the first half of the season is played.

Anyway, here are Tulsa's End of Season Sagarin Football Ratings over the last several seasons :

2014 (2-10) 48.41 #154 Blankenship yr. 4
2013 (3-9) 55.86 #132 Blankenship yr. 3
2012 (11-3) 75.81 #47 Blankenship yr. 2
2011 (8-5) 77.02 #35 Blankenship yr. 1
2010 (10-3) 78.03 #35 Graham yr. 4
2009 (5-7) 63.96 #96 Graham yr. 3
2008 (11-3) 75.98 #42 Graham yr. 2
2007 (10-4) 70.69 #65 Graham yr. 1
2006 (8-5) 69.37 #65 Kragthorpe yr. 4
2005 (9-4) 75.04 #44 Kragthorpe yr. 3
2004 (4-8) 63.02 #105 Kragthorpe yr. 2
2003 (8-5) 66.48 #76 Kragthorpe yr. 1
2002 (1-11) 47.16 #166 Burns yr. 3
2001 (1-10) 43.33 #162 Burns yr. 2
2000 (5-7) 59.67 #106 Burns yr. 1
1999 (2-9) 51.34 #132 Rader's last yr.

A couple of points : -the ratings (#) includes 1-AA teams. That 's why we can be rated as low as 166.
- We actually rated even lower in 2014 than 2013. The only worse years since 1999 were Burns last 2 years.
- A coaching change CAN make an immediate difference.
- Only TU coaches who have been or will be fired have had seasons in the 50s or 40s on Sagarin.

I am posting this for perspective on where we've been & where we are today, not for arguing that change is needed. I believe that decision has already been made.

 

[TUGrad06]

So he's staying? zero reason for him to still be coach. The new coach needs to get in here and start recruiting JUCOs NOW. Our season is over. LETS GO!

 

[Tulsafanzz]

Originally posted by TUGrad06:
So he's staying? zero reason for him to still be coach. The new coach needs to get in here and start recruiting JUCOs NOW. Our season is over. LETS GO!

No, I don't believe he's staying. I agree that we need to move soon.

 

[Tu Geo]

Interesting info Fanzz.

By the data you have shared the program is now near the Burns era lows and far below the Radar era.

Can't argue with the facts we are near 16 year low for the program. A change should happen.

GO TU!!!

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

Very very nice! Thanks Fanzz.

 

[JesseTU]

Thanks for the stats. That 10 years from 2003 to 2012 is where we SHOULD be. Sure we will have down years. Sure we will probably not be a perrenial top 25.

But many years we should flirt with a ranking.

 

[TU_BLA]

At the very least we should be beating teams like FAU and Texas State. Think about it...we win those 2 games plus either the USF or Temple games, both games we probably should have won, and we are having an entirely more difficult debate right now and Dr. Gragg/Stead Up have a much more difficult decision when you base things on W-L record and progress from one year to the next.

In the end those games were all lost by deficiencies in coaching.

 

[TU Man]

Here's another historical reference:

Graham: aggressive up and comer: success
Kragthorpe: aggressive up and commer: success
Cooper: aggressive up and comer: success
Bill self: ditto
Tubby: ditto
Nolan: ditto

Blankenship: older and nice guy: fail
John Phillips: older and nice guy: fail
Dave radar: older and nice guy: fail


The recipe for ALL of our success in Bball or fball has been to go get the aggressive young guy, then do it again when he leaves. Let's get on it!!!

I know we have had a burns, and a Peterson, but all of our successes have the same ingredients...

Hire me, then let me move on higher!

 

[TU Sepp]

Actually when Rader became HC he was the youngest or one of the youngest HC's in the nation.

Rader is about 57 years old now as he graduated from Will Rogers H.S. in 1975.

 

[TU_BLA]

Reader went to 2 bowl games in his first 3 seasons and then TUneliminated the HPER program in 1992 which basically eliminated the ability to recruit JUCOs. Add to that that TU played in Skelly which always looked half empty and TU was conference less until 1996 all made it difficult for Rader after the Freedom Bowl appearance. Look at the number of kids who went on to play pro ball under Rader and some of the QBs he developed.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[TUMe]

If Rader had been like most coaches, he would have left after the Freedom Bowl win and #21 ranking. After that, I have no idea what would have happened...good or bad...to him.

 

[rabidTU]

Originally posted by TU_BLA:
Reader went to 2 bowl games in his first 3 seasons and then TUneliminated the HPER program in 1992 which basically eliminated the ability to recruit JUCOs. Add to that that TU played in Skelly which always looked half empty and TU was conference less until 1996 all made it difficult for Rader after the Freedom Bowl appearance. Look at the number of kids who went on to play pro ball under Rader and some of the QBs he developed.

Posted from Rivals Mobile

Bingo!

Raders teams had a bunch of impressive wins at TU before they numbed down the resources for him and the staff. We beat OU, OSU, Missouri, Iowa, Texas A@M, Kansas St, Louisville, TCU. The budget was cut and support programs eliminated, then was let go and we hired Keith Burns. Nice decision -

 

[canefansincerhome]

Dave Rader had TU going until the rug was pulled out under him. Pennsylvania and Texas pipeline was flowing untill the Pinheads crapped all over Dave....really felt bad for him.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Essentially I think what everybody is saying is don't mess w Radar, he was a good coach! ;0)

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

Truth...