6-3

[ctt8410]

@Houston
SMU
@UConn
East Carolina
Temple
Tulane
@Memphis
Cincinnati
@SMU

Looks like 6-3 is what it's going to take to keep ourselves on the right side of the bubble and even then I don't feel 100% comfortable if it doesn't include at least a share of the regular season conference title. That means taking care of business against the bottom tier (Houston/Tulane/ECU) and splitting the rest. It's doable, but there's still little margin for error.

 

[youngblood223]

Originally posted by ctt8410:
@Houston
SMU
@UConn
East Carolina
Temple
Tulane
@Memphis
Cincinnati
@SMU

Looks like 6-3 is what it's going to take to keep ourselves on the right side of the bubble and even then I don't feel 100% comfortable if it doesn't include at least a share of the regular season conference title. That means taking care of business against the bottom tier (Houston/Tulane/ECU) and splitting the rest. It's doable, but there's still little margin for error.

I would think 6-3, 8-4 would do it. But 7-2 and 8-4 get it done as well IMO. At some point the NCAA has to look at who we are, not who we were.

 

[nevadanatural]

One game at a time. I'm hoping we win them all. The ones that concern me the most are at Memphis, at SMU and, oddly enough, at Houston. That being said I don't like us having to face the inside games of Cincy and SMU or Temple with Cummings healthy for the full game. I'm not saying we can't overcome these things but they do concern me.

 

[astonmartin708]

Yup, there's no way to cut it... The next slew of games is going to be really, really rough. Hoping for the best.

I don't know how you play a game against a very specialized team like Houston who likes to get hot from three, then get your team focused and prepared to go up against the other top team in the conference a day and a half later. Our coaches absolutely have their jobs cut out for them.

The only positive thing is, SMU plays Cincy just before our matchup as well. Hopefully the good cincy squad shows to that game and not the one who lost to a terrible ECU team.

 

[rabidTU]

I'm seeing is a lot of the young lower tier teams in the AAC beginning to mature late in the year. ECU, USF are an example. Houston, with their JUCOs may have adjusted to Sampson and the league now too. This is going to be a very important stretch of games and not much time to rest.

 

[noble cane]

this team runs the table with a 10% overall .improvement in free throw shooting and a 5% improvement in 3pt shooting.

This team is as aggressive as any Tulsa team I have seen in attacking the basket but those drives do little if the free throws on the resulting foul just clank off the iron...

This post was edited on 2/2 8:33 AM by noble cane

 

[TU_BLA]

Good call Noble...hit 70% of your FTs and these "close" games don't end up being that close. I haven't broken it down but we are going to FT line a ton more than our opponents.

On the remaining schedule...Houston has not matured. They are playing the same way now as they were when the came into the Reynold's Center and just jacking up 3's from everywhere. Maybe that's the way teams have to play against us, Cincinnati, and SMU where the help defense and active hands make it difficult to come inside.

You are almost dead on with the 3-pt shooting too. I'd say the bigger key is to hit the outside shots early to get teams out of the junk zones we are seeing. Hit some from distance and they will need to adjust and get out on the shooters and then Shaq and Juice win that battle going to the basket. Smith is a huge key for us in delivering 10-12 a game and hitting those mid-range shots because it forces teams to bring one of the underneath defenders in the zone to come out. Plus, we griped about our rebounding last year...this team is one of the better rebounding teams in the league right now, especially Swannegan. He's become so smart on working inside and getting position and without fouling.

 

[HHOOTter]

I like our chances
The schedule makers did us a favor
5 @ home, 4 on the road
2 of the next 3 are road games
That sets us up for 4 out of the next 6 @ home

Noble is exactly right, I haven't seen a TU team
attack the basket inside like they do, in years

Tulsa's perimeter "D" is excellent too!

It's good that R next game is on the road
Houston's "D" allows an avg of 15 more pts a game than TU's "D"

Keeping Houston's Stiggers in check will B key
Though Houston lost by 18pts here,
Stiggers scored 17pts. being Houston's leading scorer

Crowd will B "lite"
Game could B tight

Though, TU has got 2 raise its FT's %
Especially when playing on the road.

 

[Gold*]

We hit the fts against South Florida on the road. Weird deal.

We are good at generating turnovers on perimeter, but our 3 point % defense is scary. I expect the weaker teams are going to do what SE Ok, ECU, and South Florida did. Jack threes and get back as fast as possible on defense and hope we miss our free throws.

The Hines article about our interior defense was good. I think that has been the difference. When Wright is focused, we are a nice team. Smitty has manned up as well and everyone knows I love Swanny.

 

[TUBballJunkie]

I think the game in Tampa was when they were in the gym late the night before working on FTs?

 

[I.I.]

ORU beat us with 3's. SEOSU beat us with 3's. OU and WSU were just better teams and OSU played their best game.


The way we are playing now, we win against OSU, ORU, and SEOSU.
This post was edited on 2/2 11:19 AM by I.I.

 

[Muskogee9]

Smith and Swannegan have really come into their own. I've eaten my crow over mentioning how soft Smith was (and I mean WAS) but I'd like to mention this one more time, I'm proud of Smith and his overall game...............if he starts knocking down 3's, on any consistent basis, this team takes another giant leap forward but I'll be satisfied with him shooting a high percentage of 8-12 foot jumpers.

 

[BasPlayr]

Originally posted by Muskogee9:
Smith and Swannegan have really come into their own. I've eaten my crow over mentioning how soft Smith was (and I mean WAS) but I'd like to mention this one more time, I'm proud of Smith and his overall game...............if he starts knocking down 3's, on any consistent basis, this team takes another giant leap forward but I'll be satisfied with him shooting a high percentage of 8-12 foot jumpers.

Agree. The confidence level for both is at an all time high for both of them. I love both of their high energy when they fight, and win those battles inside. They are also playing smarter and staying out of foul trouble which is HUGH for this team.

 

[youngblood223]

Originally posted by I.I.:

ORU beat us with 3's. SEOSU beat us with 3's. OU and WSU were just better teams and OSU played their best game.


The way we are playing now, we win against OSU, ORU, and SEOSU.
This post was edited on 2/2 11:19 AM by I.I.

OU played lights out against us as well. They aren't that much better than Tulsa.

 

[TulsaAM]

Originally posted by youngblood223:

Originally posted by I.I.:

ORU beat us with 3's. SEOSU beat us with 3's. OU and WSU were just better teams and OSU played their best game.


The way we are playing now, we win against OSU, ORU, and SEOSU.
This post was edited on 2/2 11:19 AM by I.I.

OU played lights out against us as well. They aren't that much better than Tulsa.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda... those games done and we lost. Shoot 100 free throws after practice, that's how you get better and win games.

Beat Houston, freakin' kitty cats piss me off...

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by Gold*:
We hit the fts against South Florida on the road. Weird deal.

We are good at generating turnovers on perimeter, but our 3 point % defense is scary. I expect the weaker teams are going to do what SE Ok, ECU, and South Florida did. Jack threes and get back as fast as possible on defense and hope we miss our free throws.

The Hines article about our interior defense was good. I think that has been the difference. When Wright is focused, we are a nice team. Smitty has manned up as well and everyone knows I love Swanny.

Agree...........if you think about it, 3 guards camping around the 3 point line already have a head start getting back on defense. If they can't get back quick enough then you take the easy way out and foul.

This not a sound strategy, more like a hail mary, but I expect Cougar to employ the same junk strategy.


TX
This post was edited on 2/2 5:07 PM by texcane1982

 

[astonmartin708]

Hmm I really like the way juice and Shaq are defending the 3 pt line but Marquel is getting taken advantage of as he hesitates when he should be putting a hand out. Ray is small and tends to get pulled off his man easily on ball screens.

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

What defense(s) was Houston using in their win over UCONN?

 

[youngblood223]

Originally posted by TU Hurricane Warning:
What defense(s) was Houston using in their win over UCONN?

They were mixing defenses. Sampson is a hard core man guy. They showed some zone against us in game 1, and we crushed it. USF is a much better glass team than Houston. We just got 21 offensive boards on USF. Look for us to get on the glass again Thursday.

 

[seniorgolfer]

Originally posted by Gold*:
We hit the fts against South Florida on the road. Weird deal.

We are good at generating turnovers on perimeter, but our 3 point % defense is scary. I expect the weaker teams are going to do what SE Ok, ECU, and South Florida did. Jack threes and get back as fast as possible on defense and hope we miss our free throws.

The Hines article about our interior defense was good. I think that has been the difference. When Wright is focused, we are a nice team. Smitty has manned up as well and everyone knows I love Swanny.

Good comments.....Very often, team success is not about the known stars, but how well the
complementary or 'the competent but not great' players perform....

**Swanny is having a great run....His leg(foot actually) seems to be giving him less trouble,
and he is all over the boards on both ends....I love to watch him play because of his obvious
effort.....He is what college BB should be all about....

**Smith has had the best run during the past seven games of his career....Six of those games
have been outstanding, and seemingly, some of his shots have come at such critical times...
As you could say about several others on the team, without him, our winning streak in the conf.
would be long gone.....He has become what I visualized he would be.....

**Instead of Wright, who has indeed shown some signs that he may be coming around, I
would mention Ray as the other player who has, mostly quietly, finished off some games for
us, that might have otherwise turned out very ugly......He has been Mr. clutch at the line in the
waning moments, and handled the ball in very flawless fashion.....He rebounds, he assists,
and importantly, makes his ft;s in the closing seconds.....

This team is not uniquely gifted, and thankfully, everyone who plays is making key contributions...
Without any one of them, we would not be who we are....

Somehow, a team who has to scratch and claw for what they get is more fun to watch than a
team who is uber talented, and makes it look easy....

I am very thankful for this team and their efforts.....It has been a very long time since I have
enjoyed a team more.....

 

[youngblood223]

Originally posted by seniorgolfer:

Originally posted by Gold*:
We hit the fts against South Florida on the road. Weird deal.

We are good at generating turnovers on perimeter, but our 3 point % defense is scary. I expect the weaker teams are going to do what SE Ok, ECU, and South Florida did. Jack threes and get back as fast as possible on defense and hope we miss our free throws.

The Hines article about our interior defense was good. I think that has been the difference. When Wright is focused, we are a nice team. Smitty has manned up as well and everyone knows I love Swanny.

Good comments.....Very often, team success is not about the known stars, but how well the
complementary or 'the competent but not great' players perform....

**Swanny is having a great run....His leg(foot actually) seems to be giving him less trouble,
and he is all over the boards on both ends....I love to watch him play because of his obvious
effort.....He is what college BB should be all about....

**Smith has had the best run during the past seven games of his career....Six of those games
have been outstanding, and seemingly, some of his shots have come at such critical times...
As you could say about several others on the team, without him, our winning streak in the conf.
would be long gone.....He has become what I visualized he would be.....

**Instead of Wright, who has indeed shown some signs that he may be coming around, I
would mention Ray as the other player who has, mostly quietly, finished off some games for
us, that might have otherwise turned out very ugly......He has been Mr. clutch at the line in the
waning moments, and handled the ball in very flawless fashion.....He rebounds, he assists,
and importantly, makes his ft;s in the closing seconds.....

This team is not uniquely gifted, and thankfully, everyone who plays is making key contributions...
Without any one of them, we would not be who we are....

Somehow, a team who has to scratch and claw for what they get is more fun to watch than a
team who is uber talented, and makes it look easy....

I am very thankful for this team and their efforts.....It has been a very long time since I have
enjoyed a team more.....

Smith was a very consistent performer over the last 12-13 games of last year. He averaged 12 points in conference play. I think he's rounding into form still. He played about as good as he can offensively Saturday, but he can play better than that overall IMO. And I think he can do it for stretches. We need it.

 

[TUBballJunkie]

Originally posted by seniorgolfer:

Somehow, a team who has to scratch and claw for what they get is more fun to watch than a
team who is uber talented, and makes it look easy....

As tough as it can be on the blood pressure, I tend to agree!

 

[Muskogee9]

One of the main issues we had earlier this season........who besides Woodard was a real scoring threat???
The emergence of Harrison and his unstoppable 20 a night, evaluated us to new heights and started this current streak. Now we need Smith, Swannegan & Ray connecting like they have been and this team will take another step towards greatness.

 

[ctt8410]

"Tulsa is 17-6 with an RPI inside the Top 50, but they're just 7-5 against the RPI Top 200 with a non-DI loss as well. If the season ended now that's likely an NIT resume. They're going to need to go at least 14-4 in AAC play to have a reasonable at-large chance."

Need 5-2 now. After last night, it's hard to imagine winning in Moody. That means taking 5 of the next 6.

@UConn
East Carolina
Temple
Tulane
@Memphis
Cincinnati
@SMU

 

[Weatherdemon]

I hope that with some time to rest, heal, and prepare we can beat UConn. Memphis is playing for NIT seeding but I think we can beat them. Take care of the home games sans Cincy and I don't see us winning at SMU and I think we're a solid at large.
A win vs Cincy at home would be huge for us.

This post was edited on 2/9 10:59 AM by Weatherdemon

 

[Tu Geo]

Originally posted by ctt8410:
"Tulsa is 17-6 with an RPI inside the Top 50, but they're just 7-5 against the RPI Top 200 with a non-DI loss as well. If the season ended now that's likely an NIT resume. They're going to need to go at least 14-4 in AAC play to have a reasonable at-large chance."

Need 5-2 now. After last night, it's hard to imagine winning in Moody. That means taking 5 of the next 6.

@UConn
East Carolina
Temple
Tulane
@Memphis
Cincinnati
@SMU

RPI Forecast has Tulsa finishing 21-8. That means their forecast has Tulsa losing three more conference games, however, it still leaves Tulsa with a final RPI of #38. That will be on the bubble but I think it gets you a 12 seed.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

GO TU!!!!

 

[lawpoke87]

21-8 would make me very nervous. Assuming those losses are to SMU and Cincy, we would be 0-6 against top 50 Sagarin with a D2 loss. That D2 loss is the perfect excuse for the committee to leave us out imo. Need to go at least 5-2 down the stretch with a win against either Cincy or SMU.

 

[Tu Geo]

Originally posted by lawpoke87:

21-8 would make me very nervous. Assuming those losses are to SMU and Cincy, we would be 0-6 against top 50 Sagarin with a D2 loss. That D2 loss is the perfect excuse for the committee to leave us out imo. Need to go at least 5-2 down the stretch with a win against either Cincy or SMU.

Four of our losses are to Top 25 RPI teams.

We need to stay ahead of Temple.

Cincy and SMU are in the Tourney.

GO TU!!!

 

[lawpoke87]

Wonder what the committee thinks is more important...who you lost too or who you beat? I have no clue. We are now on the bubble per ESPN and CBS. Need to beat the teams we're suppose to beat in these next two weeks.

 

[Weatherdemon]

Originally posted by lawpoke87:

Wonder what the committee thinks is more important...who you lost too or who you beat? I have no clue. We are now on the bubble per ESPN and CBS. Need to beat the teams we're suppose to beat in these next two weeks.

Bubble but good seeding IMO.

ESPN 2/9/2015: 11 seed vs Arkansas.
https://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


CBS 2/8/2015 11 seed vs Providence.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

This post was edited on 2/9 12:49 PM by Weatherdemon

 

[Muskogee9]

We have to beat either SMU or Cincy. It would really help if we beat UCONN on the road too.

 

[ctt8410]

Temple
Tulane
@Memphis
Cincinnati
@SMU

Need to go 4-1 here on out. And win at least a game in the conference tournament.

 

[mvccane]

I just see those road games as mountains to climb.

A good start would be Temple beating SMU tonight and us beating Temple on Sunday.

 

[TU_BLA]

Originally posted by mvccane:

I just see those road games as mountains to climb.

A good start would be Temple beating SMU tonight and us beating Temple on Sunday.

If Memphis loses another game before we go there, they're done. I just see a complete lack of heart and pride in that team right now. SMU is going to be a tough battle. Not impossible, but tough. I expect us to come out firing on all cylinders the rest of the way though.

 

[lawpoke87]

The Memphis game will be much easier if Austin Nichols is still out with the ankle.

Lundardi has us out of the tourney in today's projection. 4-1 down the stretch is a must.

 

[Tu Geo]

Originally posted by lawpoke87:

The Memphis game will be much easier if Austin Nichols is still out with the ankle.

Lundardi has us out of the tourney in today's projection. 4-1 down the stretch is a must.

Interesting that Lunardi has Cincy in with a lower RPI and Tulsa is three games ahead of them in the league's standings.

I still say that if we stay ahead of Cincy and/or Temple in conference play we will get in at large.

GO TU!!!

 

[youngblood223]

Originally posted by lawpoke87:

The Memphis game will be much easier if Austin Nichols is still out with the ankle.

Lundardi has us out of the tourney in today's projection. 4-1 down the stretch is a must.

Don't care what Lunardi thinks.

 

[lawpoke87]

youngblood223 posted on 2/19/2015...

Originally posted by lawpoke87:


The Memphis game will be much easier if Austin Nichols is still out with the ankle.

Lundardi has us out of the tourney in today's projection. 4-1 down the stretch is a must.

Don't care what Lunardi thinks.
___________________________________

But he works for ESPN

 

[ctt8410]

Here we go. 2-1. Won't be easy, but it's doable.

@Memphis
Cincinnati
@SMU

 

[Steve Zissou]

I think with either one or two wins we still have to make the conference finals to feel confident.