Tulsa County Health Dept Corona Fatality Prediction

[lawpoke87]

Surely someone will be held accountable for this fear mongering BS....right ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktul.c...t-several-thousand-could-die-from-coronavirus

 

[URedskin54]

Surely someone will be held accountable for this fear mongering BS....right ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktul.c...t-several-thousand-could-die-from-coronavirus

I'm going to guess at the end of this there will be plenty of data points for them to point to and say "it would have been this bad, but everyone took our advice and we avoided disaster", and there will be plenty of data points for others to point to and say "your model's assumptions were wrong and we made x,y, and z decisions when we didn't have to."

I do think it is a near impossible task to try to forecast and make recommendations in this situation.

 

[lawpoke87]

I'm going to guess at the end of this there will be plenty of data points for them to point to and say "it would have been this bad, but everyone took our advice and we avoided disaster", and there will be plenty of data points for others to point to and say "your model's assumptions were wrong and we made x,y, and z decisions when we didn't have to."

I do think it is a near impossible task to try to forecast and make recommendations in this situation.

That’s all well and good but they made that forecast on April 2. Well after the quarantine measures had been put in place. Their numbers look to be off by a magnitude of 20x and aren’t anywhere close to any of the national models.

 

[aTUfan]

But if there had been more test kits, there wpuld have been fewer de aths.

 

[noble cane]

So... everyone in tulsa is going to be infected...

 

[TUMe]

There is a huge number of people in treatment still. Over 100,000. There still new cases coming in. The bed, ICU, and ventilator crisis it still to come. Until those people are out and hospitals are within capacity, it is too soon to say that there is not still a crisis. That is expected to come in a couple of weeks. The number and the dates are different for every state. I very much hope I am wrong.

 

[lawpoke87]

I don’t believe anyone is arguing there isn’t a crisis. My argument has always been that the estimated number of deaths in Tulsa county of 1300-1500 is absurdly high and not supported by any other model I’ve seen. Yet the Tulsa Health Dep is running with it

 

[HuffyCane]

I know hundreds of people in Florida. I know dozens in Oklahoma. The only two people I know who have died from it, died in Tulsa. That tells me a lot.

That said, it should spike quickly if it’s going to spike at all. I firmly believe we will be on the backside of the death curve by the end of next week. Between now and then could be devastating.

 

[lawpoke87]

Prediction...we will have fewer deaths in the entire state (by a significant margin) than the Tulsa County Health Dept is predicting for Tulsa County alone.

 

[TUMe]

Prediction...we will have fewer deaths in the entire state (by a significant margin) than the Tulsa County Health Dept is predicting for Tulsa County alone.

Again, around April 23 more or less is the expected crunch. Not many that are already in the hospital have been getting out and new cases keep on coming. Again I hope you are correct.

Update: I just checked again at

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They now show us OK by April 22.

 

[lawpoke87]

That site is predicting just over 800 deaths in the state. I believe even that might be a little too high. The models have been trending lower over the past week.