Tulsa +7 @ Temple
- Thread starter lawpoke87
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If Temple plays like they did vs Maryland they beat us by 17 or more.
If they play like the first two weeks, it’s a toss up but edge Temple since it’s at home.
We are really bad
If they play like the first two weeks, it’s a toss up but edge Temple since it’s at home.
We are really bad
Line has moved up to +7.5, but then back down to +6.5. This is a hard game to gauge because both teams have been really inconsistent. Temple looked absolutely awful out of the gate in week 1 and week 2. Then suddenly they looked pretty good last week. So who knows which team shows up in Philadelphia in a couple of days... but if we can get rid of our penalty issues and close the gap on some self-inflicted mistakes, I think it’ll be a close game. A touchdown either way sounds about right.
As far as stats go, their qb is actually less efficient than skipper. Lower completion percentage, more interceptions, less total yards, and the same number of touchdowns. So for as unhappy as we’ve been with the qb situation, it seems that this is a decent matchup in that realm.
We also hold the edge with our leading rusher - Shamari has more touches, total yards, and touchdowns than their leading back.
WR is a toss up and is fairly even.
Overall offense seems to be slightly better than theirs based on stats.
Defense seems to be similar. Almost the exact same amount of passing yards per game given up, but we give up slightly more rushing than they do.
Doesn’t look like weather should be a factor this evening, so hopefully our special teams picks up where they left off last week and not where they left off in Austin.
Thursday is another great opportunity we have been afforded through our conference to be in the spotlight. This is the only college football game on Thursday, so anyone with ESPN who even remotely likes sports will likely see at least a portion of this game. The NFL game we are up against is only on the NFL network and it’s a relatively unappealing matchup - jets vs Browns. So we’ll have the stage and I hope we can make the best of it.
I’ll be cheering from my living room on Thursday evening either way.
As far as stats go, their qb is actually less efficient than skipper. Lower completion percentage, more interceptions, less total yards, and the same number of touchdowns. So for as unhappy as we’ve been with the qb situation, it seems that this is a decent matchup in that realm.
We also hold the edge with our leading rusher - Shamari has more touches, total yards, and touchdowns than their leading back.
WR is a toss up and is fairly even.
Overall offense seems to be slightly better than theirs based on stats.
Defense seems to be similar. Almost the exact same amount of passing yards per game given up, but we give up slightly more rushing than they do.
Doesn’t look like weather should be a factor this evening, so hopefully our special teams picks up where they left off last week and not where they left off in Austin.
Thursday is another great opportunity we have been afforded through our conference to be in the spotlight. This is the only college football game on Thursday, so anyone with ESPN who even remotely likes sports will likely see at least a portion of this game. The NFL game we are up against is only on the NFL network and it’s a relatively unappealing matchup - jets vs Browns. So we’ll have the stage and I hope we can make the best of it.
I’ll be cheering from my living room on Thursday evening either way.
Disagree, there is totally such a thing as a must win game in week 4 when your team is struggling to meet expectations of hitting 500. We need 5 more Ws just to have a chance to say with a straight face that we had a mediocre year.
UCA - W
Texas - L
Arkie St. - L
Temple - w?
Houston - l?
USF - l?
Arkansas - w?
Tulane - w?
UConn - w?
Memphis -l?
Navy-l?
SMU -w?
SMU and UConn seem horrible (calm down SMu and UConn fans, we are bad too), we can win those games, and if we don't, I may run out of hope for Monte's tenure. Arkansas is bad, but Co St. is respectable this year and n. Texas may be good - I don't think going to piggieville and leaving with a W will be easy for this team, but it might be easier than many of our in conference games. Tulane is streaky, if they play like they did against Wake we probably lose, if they play like they did against UAB, we can win.
So if we want to get to 500, it's beat the above and Temple... or steal a game from Houston, USF, Memphis, or Navy. I like our odds against Temple compared to the alternatives.
I'd need some significant odds to make a bet that we could make it to 500, but weirder things have happened.
UCA - W
Texas - L
Arkie St. - L
Temple - w?
Houston - l?
USF - l?
Arkansas - w?
Tulane - w?
UConn - w?
Memphis -l?
Navy-l?
SMU -w?
SMU and UConn seem horrible (calm down SMu and UConn fans, we are bad too), we can win those games, and if we don't, I may run out of hope for Monte's tenure. Arkansas is bad, but Co St. is respectable this year and n. Texas may be good - I don't think going to piggieville and leaving with a W will be easy for this team, but it might be easier than many of our in conference games. Tulane is streaky, if they play like they did against Wake we probably lose, if they play like they did against UAB, we can win.
So if we want to get to 500, it's beat the above and Temple... or steal a game from Houston, USF, Memphis, or Navy. I like our odds against Temple compared to the alternatives.
I'd need some significant odds to make a bet that we could make it to 500, but weirder things have happened.
Sounds like Temple switched QBs. Their defense has been strong the last few years started under Rhule. It's probably not quite as strong as when Rhule was still there, but it's still pretty decent.
Big key for TU and it can't be under-stated...they need to come out to play at the opening kick. We've made good half time adjustments and can say that we've won the 2nd half of each game we've played...but it doesn't matter if you're spotting even mediocre teams a 20 pt lead. Unless you've got Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelmann coming out of the tunnel after the half, it's going to be hard to win when you fall behind by that much. And I'm not blaming our defense. They can only hold so much when you give a team starting with + field position 4 out of 5 1st half possessions. The 1985 Bears would struggle keeping teams from scoring if you give the other team that type of field position consistently. And I'm not sure we can ask any more of our punter who is avg nearly 50 yds a kick.
BTW...this Thursday, I come out and run the roll out TE drag play that we ran to Neph the first offensive play of the game. It comes out of our traditional run look and we seem to run it as a sort of play action which will draw the LBers up. This single play will hold the LBers ever so slightly which will open up the middle runs and even the QB keepers in the RPO.
We didn't improve last year so I'm hesitant to think we will this year.
Yea, we whipped UH but that was after a whipping by Tulane.
I'm only picking a W vs SMU because they look awful and I don't see them improving much either.
UCA - W
Texas - L
Arkie St. - L
Temple - L
Houston - L
USF - L
Arkansas - L
Tulane - L
UConn - W
Memphis -L
Navy-L
SMU -W
Yea, we whipped UH but that was after a whipping by Tulane.
I'm only picking a W vs SMU because they look awful and I don't see them improving much either.
UCA - W
Texas - L
Arkie St. - L
Temple - L
Houston - L
USF - L
Arkansas - L
Tulane - L
UConn - W
Memphis -L
Navy-L
SMU -W
Texas was a high water mark for this team.
Execution against ASU was horrible.
We wore down CAU because we have 20 more scholarships.
I want to know who the genius was that called a jet sweep in our own end zone...
And..
I want to know what kind of photos that Chad President has of PM.. there is no reason for those drive-killing plays..
I hate that we aren’t who I thought we were in the preseason, in fact not even close to what I expected. I agree with these predictions. Maybe we get lucky and sneak in a win against Tulane, but from the first 3 games, I don’t see anyway we win more than 4 this season.
How does Temple compare to us in fair catching punts?
Apparently nobody knows the offense but Monty, so I'm going to assume he asked a 14 year old who plays old EA NCAA games.
"Hey the defense is going to be gunning for us, what do you think we should run?"
"Go with the motion jet sweep Coach, high step that 94 yard touchdown."
"Damn that's a great idea! We'll take a 200 pound receiver, make him go sideways behind the goal line and then give him the ball. No way that linebacker and defensive end crashing the edge will get to him before he gets the corner. Besides our wr can just plant his foot and force his way back into the field against a 240 pound end with our wr's momentum taking him side ways...."
"Hey the defense is going to be gunning for us, what do you think we should run?"
"Go with the motion jet sweep Coach, high step that 94 yard touchdown."
"Damn that's a great idea! We'll take a 200 pound receiver, make him go sideways behind the goal line and then give him the ball. No way that linebacker and defensive end crashing the edge will get to him before he gets the corner. Besides our wr can just plant his foot and force his way back into the field against a 240 pound end with our wr's momentum taking him side ways...."
I keep thinking about it. I would have preferred them run the TE drag with Skipper on the move in that situation. It had the look of a run play, the play-action would have held the LBs AGAIN...it could have actually been a huge yardage producer and 100% not the play anyone would have expected in that situation. It would have kept the defense off balance.
That's just a really tough situation to run any play besides RB up the middle with. I debated in my head after the game whether it would have been smarter to do 2-3 RB dives (depending on how much room you gained) and punted so we could send our D out and try to win field position again. We still had time for another possession. That would be a tall task for our defense after they had just made the important stop, but our field position was terrible. Even if our guy hadn't fair caught it at the 4, they might have still downed the ball inside the 5 because there were ASU jerseys all around him when he caught it.
This goes back to just play smart. We have all the momentum, even screwing up left and right our defense has kept us in the game. Our offense has finally begun to be a positive. Be smart, give the ball to Brooks who has been on the edge of breaking loose and breaking Arkie St's back.
Three times.
Don't get cute. Look at your O-line, tell them it's time to earn that reputation, that this is on them because you know if they open the hole Brooks is gone, bust through and then it's all burst. You got 3 chances, we're not calling a play, huddling, audibling. We're snapping the ball and handing it off. We're feeding Shamari and going up the right side guard and putting this game back even.
Their D-line was gassed, their defense was getting railroaded by our pace. If we do anything there besides safety or turn over their defense is laying down and their offense is facing a defense that has slowly been choking them out.
We gave them that adrenaline shot and basically told the defense come on guys just one more time.
Three times Brooks and we win that game.
Three times.
Don't get cute. Look at your O-line, tell them it's time to earn that reputation, that this is on them because you know if they open the hole Brooks is gone, bust through and then it's all burst. You got 3 chances, we're not calling a play, huddling, audibling. We're snapping the ball and handing it off. We're feeding Shamari and going up the right side guard and putting this game back even.
Their D-line was gassed, their defense was getting railroaded by our pace. If we do anything there besides safety or turn over their defense is laying down and their offense is facing a defense that has slowly been choking them out.
We gave them that adrenaline shot and basically told the defense come on guys just one more time.
Three times Brooks and we win that game.
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My wife argued that Anderson made the right play fair catching the ball because "Have you seen the way the ball bounces on punts on this turf? That's because they don't bounce." Can't say she is wrong...but I would have like to see what would have happened had he just let it go. 4 yards of field position is not that much different.
My reasoning for the play I would have run (not saying it wasn't a smarter play call or less risky) is because it absolutely would have caught Ark St off balance. And yes, even I expected the ball to be in Brooks' hands up the middle as well.
Remember.. there is no 9 point play in football.
That jet sweep took us from a one possession game with timeouts in our pocket to a 2 possession game.
So we dive it 3 times.. with a hunh offense, honestly less than a minute thirty comes off the clock. We kick, clock stops on change of possession, get a 3 and out, and take our chances on the block.
But, that play killed any chance of winning that game.
A game that was still winnable.
That jet sweep took us from a one possession game with timeouts in our pocket to a 2 possession game.
So we dive it 3 times.. with a hunh offense, honestly less than a minute thirty comes off the clock. We kick, clock stops on change of possession, get a 3 and out, and take our chances on the block.
But, that play killed any chance of winning that game.
A game that was still winnable.
I just don't get it. 35 starts more or less & he's still missing blocks. Every time he does, I flash back to the sack that killed our chances vs. Va Tech in the bowl. I know you'll never make all blocks and he's a great guy & teammate, but above ain't his first whiff this year.
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The most frustrating thing about that play was the playback show. Coach remarked that the play was opening up for a big gain. Yeah, because the box was stacked on a jailbreak with four defenders keying the ball because we cant pass protect, throw or catch.
The problem is like realestate it's all about location, location, location.
That was a bad neighborhood to try and flip a house in, increasing the chance it would turn into a money pit and get foreclosed.
Play the odds, pick a run down place in an up and coming neighborhood and hand it off up the gut.
The return might not be as profitable but the investment of capital is less and the chance of a positive return is higher.
Worst case scenario you sell it for a little loss. Best case the neighborhood improves slowly or real fast and you cash in either way.
This is definitely what we should’ve done. Our current strengths are punter (coverage team is very undisciplined though) and defense. Play to those strengths. Who knows maybe Brooks makes one or two guys miss and gets to the 10-12 yard line and then you can run the jet sweep if you’re (referring to Monty, not you Aston) so set on it.
I’ll go to my grave convinced the coaches told him to fair catch.
The fair catch is at least understandable. Kid was focused on not giving up the ball and even if he doesn't fair catch it good chance it's down inside the five anyway. It was a decision made by a college kid on the fly.
The jet sweep call wasn't a broken play. Monty had more than 4 seconds to make the decision and he's not a kid.
The jet sweep call wasn't a broken play. Monty had more than 4 seconds to make the decision and he's not a kid.
I find myself really looking forward to this game. I think we could show that we are figuring things out and make some progress. Or... we could show that the sky really is falling. Let's figure this out.
Too big of a price tag. We were able to buy out Blankenship because he was already underpaid for a HC. I don't think we'll be able to with Monty and the deal he currently has.
This is true. His contract is too big to be bought out (unless a donor drops some big bucks)
This is also how I feel. I want this team to succeed, but the realistic side of my brain says otherwise.
Ahhh, no, no it's not. He might survive this year, but it won't be because we can't buy him out. The new media deal will be done by the end of the school year and that money alone would be enough.
I hope that deal is as big as some are saying. Would be a nice boost for our athletic department.
All current media deals have doubled.
So anywhere from 4 million to 15 million is possible a year. 8-12 is the realistic number to look for with 8 being a little low and 12 probably as high as we can push it with out outside forces bidding war.
The debate has become all in one place (meaning ESPN and them selling it for profit to CBS sports like they have been) or dividing up the inventory. Early all talk was about splitting it up. They already did some with the Navy contract to insure those Saturday afternoon kick offs for them.
It seems some of the schools lack ahh...cajones .....though and would prefer to stick with the slowly choking to death ESPN for "stability". Never mind that the current trends predict a fall to around 50% of total television users and the biggest group of cable buyers are over 45. No one under 20 watches television anymore basically. It gets better as you go up in age groups but it's clearly a fast moving trend. ESPN continues to grow it's bottom line based on the increasing carriage fees that people are dropping cable over.
We may see a blockbuster like collapse in the next three years for cable TV.
Going from a little over $2 million to $10ish million in media revenue would be awesome.
It would still be an undervalued contract.
The numbers say right at 12 on the comparable going rate for viewers. Since it is likely to grow viewers, but the pay out will stay flat the AAC should be pushing for 12-14 a year. Come 2024 it would still be a steal for money return.
8-10 seems to be the speculation with strongest credibility right now.
