This is going to be some RPI/NCAA talk.
While I don't think this team is really a quality NCAA team (more on that in second post), they have played themselves into a place where its still a possibility.
The thing though, is we really needed something to hang our hats on. And so far, that thing has been the AAC regular season title/lead. So that is why the UCONN loss was so crippling. I realize it was a tough spot, but we really needed it. With SMU playing so well, I'm not sure we can count on them losing again. Which means even if we won every game to the end, we'd have to beat them to win the regular season title.
First though, lets look at where we are with our resume
The OOC resume it literally atrocious. You normally look for something that you can point to. What I mean is, even if you don't have great wins, you want to say you don't have bad losses. And/or say you played some great teams close. Something. Anything.
We have
--A 7-5 record
--Blowout losses (by an average of 19pts) to the only 3 good teams we played
--Not only 0 Top 50 wins, but 0 Top 100 wins. Our best wins are against sub.500 teams #129 Creighton & #138 Auburn
--Horrible losses to #191 ORU and sub.500 D2 SEOK
The conference resume is obviously much better and more importantly it offers us a chance to control our own destiny. The record is better, we got that quality win (over Temple) and we've avoided any bad losses. But again, the key is we still have 3 games against Top50 RPI teams.
Overall right now we are
1-4 against the Top 50
7-6 against the Top 200 (this is particularly damning)
10-0 against 201-351
One peripheral thing that has turned around is our OOC opponents performance. May be reversing a disturbing trend.. They went 69-50 in Nov/Dec for a winning percentage of 58%. Which is why, even at 7-4, we still had a decent RPI. In January, however, they only went 42-53 (44%), which is part of the reason why, despite us being on a good win streak in January, we didn't jump up much in RPI. If they'd have continued at the 58% clip, we'd have easily been in the 20's. For February, they are 22-19 so far (even with ORU, OU, and OSU all being upset yesterday, these hurt). We're going to need them to win every game they can.
One other RPI item. I'd add around 10-15 to whatever our RPI is (currently 46) to account for SEOK game, since it doesn't count in ratings. So right now, I'd say are real RPI is somewhere around 60. I know there were circumstance behind that loss, but we have to own it. If on the bubble, its a way to leave us out. I think I said at the time it was the biggest upset in college basketball in 5 years. Given how good we've done and that SeOK is still sub.500, I'd like to amend that to 20 years.
Sorry for length, the bottom line. If we win the AAC regular season title, or maybe even tie for it, I don't thing they can leave us out. That would also likely mean we would have picked up two more Top50 wins, giving us 3.
Time to circle the wagons. Since ECU teams have defended us differently. How they should have all along. We have to use this time to find ways to adjust on offense. Its not easy, and may have to include personnel changes. I'll get in to that in second post.
This post was edited on 2/15 9:23 AM by The Eye of the Hurricane
While I don't think this team is really a quality NCAA team (more on that in second post), they have played themselves into a place where its still a possibility.
The thing though, is we really needed something to hang our hats on. And so far, that thing has been the AAC regular season title/lead. So that is why the UCONN loss was so crippling. I realize it was a tough spot, but we really needed it. With SMU playing so well, I'm not sure we can count on them losing again. Which means even if we won every game to the end, we'd have to beat them to win the regular season title.
First though, lets look at where we are with our resume
The OOC resume it literally atrocious. You normally look for something that you can point to. What I mean is, even if you don't have great wins, you want to say you don't have bad losses. And/or say you played some great teams close. Something. Anything.
We have
--A 7-5 record
--Blowout losses (by an average of 19pts) to the only 3 good teams we played
--Not only 0 Top 50 wins, but 0 Top 100 wins. Our best wins are against sub.500 teams #129 Creighton & #138 Auburn
--Horrible losses to #191 ORU and sub.500 D2 SEOK
The conference resume is obviously much better and more importantly it offers us a chance to control our own destiny. The record is better, we got that quality win (over Temple) and we've avoided any bad losses. But again, the key is we still have 3 games against Top50 RPI teams.
Overall right now we are
1-4 against the Top 50
7-6 against the Top 200 (this is particularly damning)
10-0 against 201-351
One peripheral thing that has turned around is our OOC opponents performance. May be reversing a disturbing trend.. They went 69-50 in Nov/Dec for a winning percentage of 58%. Which is why, even at 7-4, we still had a decent RPI. In January, however, they only went 42-53 (44%), which is part of the reason why, despite us being on a good win streak in January, we didn't jump up much in RPI. If they'd have continued at the 58% clip, we'd have easily been in the 20's. For February, they are 22-19 so far (even with ORU, OU, and OSU all being upset yesterday, these hurt). We're going to need them to win every game they can.
One other RPI item. I'd add around 10-15 to whatever our RPI is (currently 46) to account for SEOK game, since it doesn't count in ratings. So right now, I'd say are real RPI is somewhere around 60. I know there were circumstance behind that loss, but we have to own it. If on the bubble, its a way to leave us out. I think I said at the time it was the biggest upset in college basketball in 5 years. Given how good we've done and that SeOK is still sub.500, I'd like to amend that to 20 years.
Sorry for length, the bottom line. If we win the AAC regular season title, or maybe even tie for it, I don't thing they can leave us out. That would also likely mean we would have picked up two more Top50 wins, giving us 3.
Time to circle the wagons. Since ECU teams have defended us differently. How they should have all along. We have to use this time to find ways to adjust on offense. Its not easy, and may have to include personnel changes. I'll get in to that in second post.
This post was edited on 2/15 9:23 AM by The Eye of the Hurricane
