ESPN still has a crush on Memphis and Penny. Note that he says No remaining WSU opponent will get a bid. I'm hoping we sweep and win an undisputed AAC championship and let them keep the AAC winner out of the tournament with a 25-10 record if we lost in the finals finishing the game only a few minutes before the selection is announced on that Sunday.
American
Locks: None
Should be in
Houston Cougars
For the second time in three outings, Houston lost by one point on the road. After losing in overtime at SMU, the Cougars fell 60-59 in regulation at Memphis when a would-be game winner by
Caleb Mills missed the target as time expired. Kelvin Sampson's men are 21-7 and still slated to be a No. 7 seed by the mock brackets, but UH will have to work to keep that position. With games remaining against Cincinnati and UConn, as well as a rematch against the Tigers in the season finale, it's conceivable Houston could finish with at least three losses in its final six contests.
Work to do
Wichita State Shockers
The most likely outcome for the Shockers would appear to be a seed in the Nos. 9-to-11 range in the NCAA tournament. That looks more probable than this team missing the bracket entirely, and it also recommends itself as more likely than the Shockers rising to a No. 8 seed (or higher). Barring a big 11th-hour push by Memphis or a bid thief at the American tournament, no remaining WSU regular-season opponent is going to receive an NCAA bid. That limits Wichita State's ability to improve its seeding. On the other hand, two victories in the last four games (say, home wins against Temple and Tulsa) might prove sufficient, even if the Shockers were to drop both games on the road (to SMU and Memphis).
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati was a bubble team before its three-point win at home over Wichita State, and it's a bubble team now. A victory is far better than the alternative, naturally, but defeating the Shockers on one's home court is a Quad 2 win. The real profile-boosting opportunity for the Bearcats and their 50-something NET ranking is still to come, in the form of a road game at Houston. A second win against the Cougars would give John Brannen's team one sweet sound bite: "swept both Houston and Wichita State in the regular season." Until then, UC will continue to sweat it out as one of the last teams in the projected field.
Memphis Tigers
After losing 58-53 at SMU, the question for Memphis is no longer whether it needs that Quad 1 win at Houston in the season finale. The question is whether even that will be enough. Penny Hardaway's team already owns one victory over the Cougars, a hard-fought 60-59 win at FedExForum last weekend. The problem for the Tigers, profile-wise, is that beating UH on one's home floor isn't offsetting everything else, namely, a NET ranking in the 60s, three Quad 3 losses and the increasing likelihood of a sixth-place finish in the American.