USA TODAY:
There are 18 bubble teams yet only 11 spots remaining for at-large bids to get into the NCAA tournament. Though team résumés are based on a season's full body of work, the last impression on the selection committee is important. With conference tournaments underway, here's a look at fringe teams with the most to prove this week.
1. Tulsa (21-9, 14-4): Losing to SMU on Sunday meant more than a second-place finish in the AAC. It also denied Tulsa a top-50 win that would have made the Golden Hurricane's profile much prettier. Tulsa must at least get to the AAC tournament final, beating Cincinnati along the way. And that still might not be enough.
2. Illinois (19-12, 9-9): The Illini are an interesting case. How the committee judges the Big Ten will be reflected in Illinois' insertion or omission from the tournament. If the Illini beat Michigan in the Big Ten tournament, then lose to Wisconsin, it will be a tense Selection Sunday. If they lose to Michigan, their chances are slim. If they beat Wisconsin, they're in.
3. Richmond (19-12, 12-6): The Spiders have won six games in a row to climb back onto the tournament bubble, but they're still a long shot. The path to earn a bid is in place, though. In order to get in, Richmond will need to beat VCU and Davidson in the Atlantic 10 tournament. If it can do that, there will be hope.
4. Old Dominion (24-6, 13-5): That strength of schedule in the 130s jumps out like red wine on white carpet. And it doesn't help that this is the second best team in a mid-major league, behind Louisiana Tech. Anything short of a run to the Conference USA tournament finals means there's no chance. If the Monarchs lose a close one in the league finale, there's an outside chance.
5. BYU (22-8, 13-5): Beating Gonzaga at the end of February gave the Cougars life, but that might be all it gives them. The full body of work isn't quite there. BYU needs to at least reach the West Coast Conference final. Because every last detail matters at this point, BYU will also need to play Gonzaga close in that game. A blowout result would spell the NIT.
6. UCLA (19-12, 11-7): The Bruins' credentials are a little bit too dependent on the Pac-12's RPI, and this isn't a good year to lean on the conference to bail you out. Wins against Utah and Oregon are nice, but losses to Colorado, Oregon State and Arizona State essentially negate the victories. UCLA undoubtedly needs to win its Pac-12 tournament opener. If it can't beat Arizona in the semifinals - a result that would surely get the Bruins into the field - they'll be sweating big time on Sunday.
7. Miami (20-11, 10-8): The Hurricanes have won two road games in a row but are still in need of a deep run in the ACC tournament. As a No. 7 seed, they'll need to beat the winner of Wake Forest or Virginia Tech and then beat Notre Dame. They'll still need to play Duke close and even then, they're still borderline.
8. Indiana (19-12, 9-9): The Hoosiers are the team that should be rooting against bid thieves. Without them, they're pretty comfortable. They have to beat Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament. Any form of a résumé stain will doom this team. Considering Indiana has lost three in a row, it could be harder than it looks. Wins against Northwestern and Maryland would lock things up. A loss to the Terrapins would make it a close call.
9. Texas A&M (20-10, 11-7): Back-to-back losses will send any bubble team in the wrong direction, and unfortunately for the Aggies, those losses were to subpar teams. Then factor in a 77 strength of schedule and it's clear the worst of the SEC bubble teams will have reason for concern heading into Selection Sunday. Texas A&M absolutely needs to beat the winner of Mississippi State vs. Auburn in its SEC tournament opener. Another victory against LSU in the next round would make the Aggies secure. A loss to LSU would make things very tense.
AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In: SMU
Probable: Cincinnati
Bubble team résumés
(IN) Temple: 22-9 (13-5), 32 RPI, 69 SoS
The Good: Win vs. Kansas and Cincinnati
The Bad: Loss vs. St. Joseph's
(OUT) Tulsa: 21-9 (14-4), 47 RPI, 90 SoS
The Good: Win vs. Temple (twice)
The Bad: Loss vs. Oral Roberts and Division II loss to Southeast Oklahoma State
Bubble Tracker
There are 18 bubble teams yet only 11 spots remaining for at-large bids to get into the NCAA tournament. Though team résumés are based on a season's full body of work, the last impression on the selection committee is important. With conference tournaments underway, here's a look at fringe teams with the most to prove this week.
1. Tulsa (21-9, 14-4): Losing to SMU on Sunday meant more than a second-place finish in the AAC. It also denied Tulsa a top-50 win that would have made the Golden Hurricane's profile much prettier. Tulsa must at least get to the AAC tournament final, beating Cincinnati along the way. And that still might not be enough.
2. Illinois (19-12, 9-9): The Illini are an interesting case. How the committee judges the Big Ten will be reflected in Illinois' insertion or omission from the tournament. If the Illini beat Michigan in the Big Ten tournament, then lose to Wisconsin, it will be a tense Selection Sunday. If they lose to Michigan, their chances are slim. If they beat Wisconsin, they're in.
3. Richmond (19-12, 12-6): The Spiders have won six games in a row to climb back onto the tournament bubble, but they're still a long shot. The path to earn a bid is in place, though. In order to get in, Richmond will need to beat VCU and Davidson in the Atlantic 10 tournament. If it can do that, there will be hope.
4. Old Dominion (24-6, 13-5): That strength of schedule in the 130s jumps out like red wine on white carpet. And it doesn't help that this is the second best team in a mid-major league, behind Louisiana Tech. Anything short of a run to the Conference USA tournament finals means there's no chance. If the Monarchs lose a close one in the league finale, there's an outside chance.
5. BYU (22-8, 13-5): Beating Gonzaga at the end of February gave the Cougars life, but that might be all it gives them. The full body of work isn't quite there. BYU needs to at least reach the West Coast Conference final. Because every last detail matters at this point, BYU will also need to play Gonzaga close in that game. A blowout result would spell the NIT.
6. UCLA (19-12, 11-7): The Bruins' credentials are a little bit too dependent on the Pac-12's RPI, and this isn't a good year to lean on the conference to bail you out. Wins against Utah and Oregon are nice, but losses to Colorado, Oregon State and Arizona State essentially negate the victories. UCLA undoubtedly needs to win its Pac-12 tournament opener. If it can't beat Arizona in the semifinals - a result that would surely get the Bruins into the field - they'll be sweating big time on Sunday.
7. Miami (20-11, 10-8): The Hurricanes have won two road games in a row but are still in need of a deep run in the ACC tournament. As a No. 7 seed, they'll need to beat the winner of Wake Forest or Virginia Tech and then beat Notre Dame. They'll still need to play Duke close and even then, they're still borderline.
8. Indiana (19-12, 9-9): The Hoosiers are the team that should be rooting against bid thieves. Without them, they're pretty comfortable. They have to beat Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament. Any form of a résumé stain will doom this team. Considering Indiana has lost three in a row, it could be harder than it looks. Wins against Northwestern and Maryland would lock things up. A loss to the Terrapins would make it a close call.
9. Texas A&M (20-10, 11-7): Back-to-back losses will send any bubble team in the wrong direction, and unfortunately for the Aggies, those losses were to subpar teams. Then factor in a 77 strength of schedule and it's clear the worst of the SEC bubble teams will have reason for concern heading into Selection Sunday. Texas A&M absolutely needs to beat the winner of Mississippi State vs. Auburn in its SEC tournament opener. Another victory against LSU in the next round would make the Aggies secure. A loss to LSU would make things very tense.
AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In: SMU
Probable: Cincinnati
Bubble team résumés
(IN) Temple: 22-9 (13-5), 32 RPI, 69 SoS
The Good: Win vs. Kansas and Cincinnati
The Bad: Loss vs. St. Joseph's
(OUT) Tulsa: 21-9 (14-4), 47 RPI, 90 SoS
The Good: Win vs. Temple (twice)
The Bad: Loss vs. Oral Roberts and Division II loss to Southeast Oklahoma State
Bubble Tracker
