ADVERTISEMENT

Midterm predictions…cuss and discuss

lawpoke87

I.T.S. Legend
Gold Member
Dec 17, 2002
28,436
7,156
113
Will abortion save the Dem majorities in the House and Senate or will the economy and Biden’s poor job approval result in a red wave giving the Pubs majorities in both chambers?

Current prediction (I will change it weekly until Election Day):

Pubs gain 25 seats in the House and take the majority

Senate ends up 50/50. Several close races which could go either way here.
 
Democrats will retain both house and senate and gain 2 in the senate.

I’m curious what the odds are for Stitt retaining his office. He’s basically running against a Republican in November.

South of the border, Gag Abutt faces an upset as the governor, lt governor and attorney general races are too close to call.
 
Democrats will retain both house and senate and gain 2 in the senate.

I’m curious what the odds are for Stitt retaining his office. He’s basically running against a Republican in November.

South of the border, Gag Abutt faces an upset as the governor, lt governor and attorney general races are too close to call.
That’s as optimistic view on Dems chances as I’ve seen. Something will have to happen between now and Election Day to save the House for the Dems imo…and it very well could.

Abbott is well ahead of Beto in Texas btw. He wins by 8-10 points.
 
That’s as optimistic view on Dems chances as I’ve seen. Something will have to happen between now and Election Day to save the House for the Dems imo…and it very well could.

Abbott is well ahead of Beto in Texas btw. He wins by 8-10 points.
Abbott is essentially even with Beto as of yesterday.

As for Stitt, there’s this.
 
Dont believe the polls...

As much as i dont like Stitt, i have problems with someone that jumps parties just to get elected..
 
Dont believe the polls...

As much as i dont like Stitt, i have problems with someone that jumps parties just to get elected..
I don’t believe individual (especially non national polling companies). I do tend to follow the average though when there are multiple respected national polling companies with data. Like in Texas. See above link.
 
Last edited:
I don’t believe individual (especially non national polling companies). I do tend to follow the average though when there are multiple respected national polling companies with data. Like in Texas. See above link.
Understood... but the only poll i believe occurs on the 8th...till then its a bunch of noise designed to either motivate or suppress the vote...
 
Democrats will retain both house and senate and gain 2 in the senate.

I’m curious what the odds are for Stitt retaining his office. He’s basically running against a Republican in November.

South of the border, Gag Abutt faces an upset as the governor, lt governor and attorney general races are too close to call.
That’s bold. I think the Dems have an off chance at holding the house, but I wouldn’t put any money on it. I think the GOP picks ups seats, but they fall far short of expectations they had at the beginning of the year.

Dems hold the Senate, maybe pick up a seat or two, but a lot is up in the air and too close to call.

I don’t have a good read on OK politics anymore, but in NM, Ronchetti is finishing strong. I highly doubt he will end up upsetI got Grisham, but he’s given the GOP a sense of life that has been missing from the state party for a while now. OTOH, he can’t even knock off an unpopular incumbent, so….
 
Dont believe the polls...

As much as i dont like Stitt, i have problems with someone that jumps parties just to get elected..
When the party morph's into something she has no chance to get elected as the Republican nominee, what do you expect her to do? Run a race she loses, or give up before it gets started.

Centrist Republicans in Red states have to find a different way in today, or they lose before they get started. That's what she did. Some states she could have run as as a independent, but not in Oklahoma.(She would have to give up votes to the Democratic nominee if she ran as an independent anyway.)

I wish we had someone like her who was more conservative in the presidency, rather than Joe Biden.

I'd have had more respect for what you were saying if you just admitted you don't like her views. It would have been honest. Her changing parties is just an excuse.
 
The question nationally and to an extent at the state level will be how broadly the voters will embrace or reject the fascism of today’s GQP. If they embrace it, the ride will be very rough indeed and we’ll long for the days when most of the posting activity was on the athletic forums.
 
  • Like
Reactions: watu05
if the dems wins, the WILL continue to kill our economy and you can kiss the rest of your saving away.

if the pubs win, they will NOT pass a national abti abortion act.
 
if the dems wins, the WILL continue to kill our economy and you can kiss the rest of your saving away.

if the pubs win, they will NOT pass a national abti abortion act.
You realize that the world economy has an impact on the US, don’t you? Inflation is a world wide problem and the effects of the Covid pandemic from 2020-2021 have effects still being felt now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Weatherdemon
When the party morph's into something she has no chance to get elected as the Republican nominee, what do you expect her to do? Run a race she loses, or give up before it gets started.

Centrist Republicans in Red states have to find a different way in today, or they lose before they get started. That's what she did. Some states she could have run as as a independent, but not in Oklahoma.(She would have to give up votes to the Democratic nominee if she ran as an independent anyway.)

I wish we had someone like her who was more conservative in the presidency, rather than Joe Biden.

I'd have had more respect for what you were saying if you just admitted you don't like her views. It would have been honest. Her changing parties is just an excuse.
Sorry.. party hopping is the reason.. grow some balls, challenge him in the primary.. this move is by someone that sees an opportunity to be governor and doesnt care who funds the campaign.. i cant trust her core values when she crawls into bed with the DNC..
 
That’s bold. I think the Dems have an off chance at holding the house, but I wouldn’t put any money on it. I think the GOP picks ups seats, but they fall far short of expectations they had at the beginning of the year.

Dems hold the Senate, maybe pick up a seat or two, but a lot is up in the air and too close to call.

I don’t have a good read on OK politics anymore, but in NM, Ronchetti is finishing strong. I highly doubt he will end up upsetI got Grisham, but he’s given the GOP a sense of life that has been missing from the state party for a while now. OTOH, he can’t even knock off an unpopular incumbent, so….

I get the Ronchetti ads here in El Paso. I don’t feel like I ever have a very good read on how other people view politicians, but there’s something about Ronchetti that’s just very off-putting to me, like in a Kamala Harris obnoxious laugh kind of way. Idk but every time I see him in an ad something about him bothers me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Clong83a
I get the Ronchetti ads here in El Paso. I don’t feel like I ever have a very good read on how other people view politicians, but there’s something about Ronchetti that’s just very off-putting to me, like in a Kamala Harris obnoxious laugh kind of way. Idk but every time I see him in an ad something about him bothers me.
Yeah, his ads are oddly off-putting to me too. But by all accounts I've heard, he is personable and charming on the campaign trail. And while his TV campaign has been quite negative (so has Grisham's), he is not running on a bunch of stop the steal conspiracy crap and seems to be a more or less mainstream* Republican. He's completely ignored Trump and most of that movement. To me, that is a breath of fresh air. Even though I think he will lose by 10%, we need more like him, not fewer.

*Mainstream for 15 years ago or so.

EDIT:
Someone else said to me that he reminded him of "Jared" from the Subway commercials in a lot of his ads. Having heard that, I now can't not see it. Not his fault, but might be contributing to that weird off-putting feeling.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: URedskin54
Putin needs someone to guarantee his claims in Ukraine… looks like he’ll get it with McCarthy. Never thought a guy with that name would capitulate to Russia… but here we are.
 
I think Republicans might actually improve the economy… only it will be at the cost of bending over in front of Putin… which will ultimately just make the world worse. They’re experts at that.
 
I think Republicans might actually improve the economy… only it will be at the cost of bending over in front of Putin… which will ultimately just make the world worse. They’re experts at that.
How? The problems we face are long term and no Republican is talking about addressing those issues. Cutting SS and Medicare, short term energy fixes, and focusing on social divisons will not help the economy nor the country materially. Bend to Putin by giving him some to crow about in the Ukraine might ease short term oil prices, but that will tell China not to believe us on Taiwan and so on…..
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Weatherdemon
Barack tells me the 80's called and it wants its foreign policy back
 
How? The problems we face are long term and no Republican is talking about addressing those issues. Cutting SS and Medicare, short term energy fixes, and focusing on social divisons will not help the economy not the country materially.
I will ask once again….Dems have controlled the Executive, House and Senate. Please detail for us the steps the Dems have taken to ensure the long term viability of SS and Medicare.
 
Yeah, his ads are oddly off-putting to me too. But by all accounts I've heard, he is personable and charming on the campaign trail. And while his TV campaign has been quite negative (so has Grisham's), he is not running on a bunch of stop the steal conspiracy crap and seems to be a more or less mainstream* Republican. He's completely ignored Trump and most of that movement. To me, that is a breath of fresh air. Even though I think he will lose by 10%, we need more like him, not fewer.

*Mainstream for 15 years ago or so.

EDIT:
Someone else said to me that he reminded him of "Jared" from the Subway commercials in a lot of his ads. Having heard that, I now can't not see it. Not his fault, but might be contributing to that weird off-putting feeling.
For some reason he reminds me of every annoying character Jeremy Piven has played

ValuableShortAustrianpinscher-size_restricted.gif
 
I will ask once again….Dems have controlled the Executive, House and Senate. Please detail for us the steps the Dems have taken to ensure the long term viability of SS and Medicare.
Well, not during this administration but in previous ones (Clinton + Obama), they tried repeatedly to address the out of control inflation in the cost of medical services which are bankrupting both programs by increasing the payouts that they are forced to dole out to keep the recipients from resorting to eating dog food in their old age.

...Only to have their efforts blocked or corrupted by concessions to conservative / corporate interests.

Please tell me what the GOP has done during any of the past 40 years to sustain the programs aside from cutting the benefits they are supposed to provide?

Again... treating the symptoms of the issue rather than addressing the root cause.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TU 1978 and watu05
Well, not during this administration but in previous ones (Clinton + Obama), they tried repeatedly to address the out of control inflation in the cost of medical services which are bankrupting both programs by increasing the payouts that they are forced to dole out to keep the recipients from resorting to eating dog food in their old age.

...Only to have their efforts blocked or corrupted by concessions to conservative / corporate interests.

Please tell me what the GOP has done during any of the past 40 years to sustain the programs aside from cutting the benefits they are supposed to provide?

Again... treating the symptoms of the issue rather than addressing the root cause.
My response was not meant to imply the Pubs will or have tried to save SS or Medicare but only a response to WATU idiotic statement that those two programs would now be in danger should the Pubs take the House. To be clear, both parties have punted on these two issues for years.

As far as Medicare, our last and best effort to reign in costs was Obamacare. Unfortunately there were zero price controls in that law which provided meaningful relief to the soaring costs of healthcare. The healthcare industry lobbyist made sure of that when they were given a seat at the drafting table. The law’s supporters argued prices would drop as health providers suffered fewer non paying customers. I disagreed due to the fact the health care industry is not suited to operate in a market driven capitalistic model. I was correct. My position on health care has always been one of the most left leaning on this board for that reason.

SS is a little different. As I’ve said many time cuts or increased taxes are necessary. It’s not rocket science it’s mathematic….and yes I know many on the left have issues with simple math :). One problem is every time someone talks about cuts there are those simpletons on the far left (see WATU latest comment) screaming about those actions in hopes of scoring political points. Both parties need to get together and ensures the viability of SS. Unfortunately, as long as there are a certain group of people around only interested in political gain this issue will continue to get kicked down the road until the time comes when we can’t ignore it.
 
Two weeks until midterms. Still like my original predictions. Several close Senate races will decide control in the upper chamber. Still time for the tide to turn either way.

Local races…I remain convinced Stitt is in trouble. Late deciders usually don’t break for the incumbent. Abbot will win Texas by 8 points give or take. Pubs have made significant inroads into the Hispanic community in that state. Expect that trend to continue.

Weird to see candidates refusing to debate. The debate pictures with one podium empty is a strange sight.
 
Two weeks until midterms. Still like my original predictions. Several close Senate races will decide control in the upper chamber. Still time for the tide to turn either way.

Local races…I remain convinced Stitt is in trouble. Late deciders usually don’t break for the incumbent. Abbot will win Texas by 8 points give or take. Pubs have made significant inroads into the Hispanic community in that state. Expect that trend to continue.

Weird to see candidates refusing to debate. The debate pictures with one podium empty is a strange sight.
I agree Stitt is sinking... once the DNC smelled blood, the outside money started pouring into the state through non candidate affiliated PACS. They are running the negative ads and letting JH continue her "positive" campaign.

Big issue in my area is the OTA's land grab for a new Turnpike. JH has been really wishy washy about it. Not supporting it, just not saying she would block it...
 
I agree Stitt is sinking... once the DNC smelled blood, the outside money started pouring into the state through non candidate affiliated PACS. They are running the negative ads and letting JH continue her "positive" campaign.

Big issue in my area is the OTA's land grab for a new Turnpike. JH has been really wishy washy about it. Not supporting it, just not saying she would block it...
We went through that in south Tulsa when the Creek turnpike was being built. Odds are it gets built regardless of who the governor is imo.
 
Two weeks until midterms. Still like my original predictions. Several close Senate races will decide control in the upper chamber. Still time for the tide to turn either way.

Local races…I remain convinced Stitt is in trouble. Late deciders usually don’t break for the incumbent. Abbot will win Texas by 8 points give or take. Pubs have made significant inroads into the Hispanic community in that state. Expect that trend to continue.

Weird to see candidates refusing to debate. The debate pictures with one podium empty is a strange sight.
They all took cues from Donald, which isn’t productive. Just another way he worsened our system.
 
My response was not meant to imply the Pubs will or have tried to save SS or Medicare but only a response to WATU idiotic statement that those two programs would now be in danger should the Pubs take the House. To be clear, both parties have punted on these two issues for years.

As far as Medicare, our last and best effort to reign in costs was Obamacare. Unfortunately there were zero price controls in that law which provided meaningful relief to the soaring costs of healthcare. The healthcare industry lobbyist made sure of that when they were given a seat at the drafting table. The law’s supporters argued prices would drop as health providers suffered fewer non paying customers. I disagreed due to the fact the health care industry is not suited to operate in a market driven capitalistic model. I was correct. My position on health care has always been one of the most left leaning on this board for that reason.

SS is a little different. As I’ve said many time cuts or increased taxes are necessary. It’s not rocket science it’s mathematic….and yes I know many on the left have issues with simple math :). One problem is every time someone talks about cuts there are those simpletons on the far left (see WATU latest comment) screaming about those actions in hopes of scoring political points. Both parties need to get together and ensures the viability of SS. Unfortunately, as long as there are a certain group of people around only interested in political gain this issue will continue to get kicked down the road until the time comes when we can’t ignore it.
I don’t support alterations to SS from an age standpoint… it’s already becoming so old that a retiree won’t be able to use it, which effectively pushes people to work longer even though many are not cut out for having a job at that point in their life.

If it’s alteration to tax structure or systematic reorganizations to promote synergies / cost savings then I’m okay. I also think that we need to look at reducing the fiscal burden of seniors through improved regulation so that if They are dependent on SS then they’re not going to need as many inflationary raises to the benefit magnitudes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: watu05
I don’t support alterations to SS from an age standpoint… it’s already becoming so old that a retiree won’t be able to use it, which effectively pushes people to work longer even though many are not cut out for having a job at that point in their life.

If it’s alteration to tax structure or systematic reorganizations to promote synergies / cost savings then I’m okay. I also think that we need to look at reducing the fiscal burden of seniors through improved regulation so that if They are dependent on SS then they’re not going to need as many inflationary raises to the benefit magnitudes.
Interesting concept. Do you have specifics on the alteration of tax structure or reorganizations which would raise the billions needed post 2034 to continue SS payouts at the present level?
 
Interesting concept. Do you have specifics on the alteration of tax structure or reorganizations which would raise the billions needed post 2034 to continue SS payouts at the present level?
I do not. We are going to need to get clever if we want to sustain it. But, constantly upping the benefits age isn’t a real answer. you can’t undermine the fundamental intent of the product just to sustain its existence.

Someday we’ll be spending 1/3rd of our federal budget to sustain 10 centenarians if we don’t stop upping the age limit without addressing the underlying problems surrounding the reason the program costs so much. (Hyperbole)
 
I do not. We are going to need to get clever if we want to sustain it. But, constantly upping the benefits age isn’t a real answer. you can’t undermine the fundamental intent of the product just to sustain its existence.

Someday we’ll be spending 1/3rd of our federal budget to sustain 10 centenarians if we don’t stop upping the age limit without addressing the underlying problems surrounding the reason the program costs so much. (Hyperbole)
I have my doubts if we can lower costs enough to cover the projected $2.5T in cash deficits over the next decade without increasing the revenue source or decreasing expenditures. Would really like to see us take up some of the things you’re talking about and get some real numbers. Time is running out.
 
Abbott and O’Rourke are about 2 points apart or within the margin of error. Pubs have made significant inroads into the uneducated in the Hispanic community just like they have with other uneducated groups. College educated voters favor the dems by a large margin. The major newspapers in the state have endorsed a complete Democrat slate for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and several other statewide offices. That is unheard of in the last decade.
FIFY
 
We went through that in south Tulsa when the Creek turnpike was being built. Odds are it gets built regardless of who the governor is imo.
Yeah.. JH is paying lipservice to the rich libs/rinos in Norman to gain their support. I figure as soon as the election is over she will say she cant stop it. Or that we need it and Stitt was right.
The damage it will do to Normans water supply and the surrounding area is real.
 
1978,

Biden only won Texas college educated voters by 2 points in 2020. Hardly a large margin. Also, the largest newspaper in Texas and one of the largest 20 in the US endorsed Abbott. Assume the largest newspaper in Texas is a major newspaper. Not that newspapers endorsements carry any weight with voters these days. Have no clue where your info is coming from?

Look forward to seeing which of us is correct in two weeks regarding Texas.
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT