I think this may be our best hope bracket

[I.I.]

Temple is pretty much locked at # 1 ( 14-4) or 13-5) unless they lose to Memphis or Tulane (or could they lose both and become 12-6) and Cincy beats Houston and SMU and ties them. Long odds for both happening and even then Temple might win the tie breaker I don't know.

The 1 seed and the # 4 and # 5 are all in the potentially easier upper bracket.

Memphis is pretty much locked into the # 6 seed so their first round game will be with # 3 ( WE DON'T WANT TO BE THERE.)

UCONN has the highest chance of being # 4 or 5 since a loss at SMU makes them 11-7

If Houston beats Cincy and Cincy beats SMU, then TU, Cincy, and Houston would tie at 12-6 for the 2, 3, 4 spots. I don't know how the tie breaker goes here either. Need UCONN to beat SMU so there is a 4 -way tie for 2nd.@ 12-6.

All I know is we don't want to be the # 3 seed against # 6 Memphis the first round and have Cincy # 2 in the semi's...............


Here is my best possible scenario for bracketing though you still have to win:

# 1 Temple
# 2 Cincy
#3 UCONN * Houston , then Temple tough but possible.
# 4 Tulsa
# 5 Houston
# 6 Memphis

or

# 1 Temple
# 2 Tulsa
# 3 Houston *This might get us to the semi's against Houston/Memphis winner (I like this best)
#4 Cincy
# 5 UCONN
# 6 Memphis

Temple 12-4 Memphis, @ Tulane

Cincy 11-5 @ Houston, SMU
Tulsa 11-6 USF
Houston 11-6 Cincy
UCONN 10-6 @ SMU, UCF

Memphis most likely # 6 by themselves.

 

[Tu Geo]

Good stuff I.I.

Go TU!!!

 

[mcane]

too many variables at this point, but a first round game vs. UH, followed by Temple would have me excited on championship Sunday.

 

[TU_BLA]

Memphis is not a tough matchup for us...our guards are much better than theirs. We forced 15-16 turnovers to only 8 for us. If we are not so short on the bench created by a ref with a vengeance, we can press more. Any combination that makes it so we would not meet up with Cincinnati until the Finals works for me.

 

[ctt8410]

For Temple to fall out of the 1 seed, they would need to lose both (Memphis,@Tulane) and Cinci would need to win both (@Houston,SMU). KenPom odds of this happening are ~3% so I'm just going to ignore the possibility for now. Similar gymnastics are required to get Memphis out of the 6 seed. Let's also assume that Tulsa beats USF (mostly because I don't want to consider the alternative).

Cinci 2-0
1 Temple
2 Cinci
3 Tulsa
4/5 Houston/UConn (depending on UConn's result at SMU)
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (W@Houston, LvsSMU) UConn 1-1
1 Temple
2 Tulsa
3 Cinci
4 Houston
5 UConn
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (W@Houston, LvsSMU) UConn 2-0
1 Temple
2 Tulsa
3 UConn
4 Cinci
5 Houston
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (L@Houston, WvsSMU) UConn 1-1
1 Temple
2 Houston
3 Tulsa
4 Cinci
5 UConn
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (L@Houston, WvsSMU) UConn 2-0
1 Temple
2 Cinci
3 Tulsa
4 UConn
5 Houston
6 Memphis

Cinci 0-2 UConn 1-1
1 Temple
2 Houston
3 Tulsa
4 Cinci
5 UConn
6 Memphis

Cinci 0-2 UConn 1-1
1 Temple
2 Houston
3 Tulsa
4 UConn
5 Cinci
6 Memphis

**Disclaimer: This was written on my napkin at lunch and should not be considered 100% accurate or all-inclusive.

 

[Tu Geo]

Nice post ctt

Looks like we have to beat Cincy again to get to the finals.

Toughest team to beat IMHO.

Not good scenerios.

Go TU!!!

 

[TU_BLA]

For Temple to fall out of the 1 seed, they would need to lose both (Memphis,@Tulane) and Cinci would need to win both (@Houston,SMU). KenPom odds of this happening are ~3% so I'm just going to ignore the possibility for now. Similar gymnastics are required to get Memphis out of the 6 seed. Let's also assume that Tulsa beats USF (mostly because I don't want to consider the alternative).

Cinci 2-0
1 Temple
2 Cinci
3 Tulsa
4/5 Houston/UConn (depending on UConn's result at SMU)
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (W@Houston, LvsSMU) UConn 0-1
1 Temple
2 Tulsa
3 Cinci
4 Houston
5 UConn
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (W@Houston, LvsSMU) UConn 1-0
1 Temple
2 Tulsa
3 UConn
4 Cinci
5 Houston
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (L@Houston, WvsSMU) UConn 0-1
1 Temple
2 Cinci
3 Tulsa
4 Houston
5 UConn
6 Memphis

Cinci 1-1 (L@Houston, WvsSMU) UConn 1-0
1 Temple
2 Cinci
3 Tulsa
4 UConn
5 Houston
6 Memphis

Cinci 0-2 UConn 0-1
1 Temple
2 Houston
3 Tulsa
4 Cinci
5 UConn
6 Memphis

Cinci 0-2 UConn 1-0
1 Temple
2 Houston
3 Tulsa
4 UConn
5 Cinci
6 Memphis

**Disclaimer: This was written on my napkin at lunch and should not be considered 100% accurate or all-inclusive.

I'm putting all my chips on 3 and 7.

 

[Tu Geo]

I"m pulling for SMU to win out and win the conference at 14-4.

Committee could use that against Temple for an auto.

Go TU!!!

Final standings:

SMU 14-4 win both Cincy and UCONN
Temple 13-5 lose Memphis win Tulane
Tulsa 12-6 win USF
Houston 12-6 beat Cincy
Cincy 11-7 lose both Hou and SMU
UCONN 11-7 lose SMU win UCF

Go TU!!!!

 

[drboobay]

So to simplify, root for Cinci and Uconn losses.

 

[mcane]

I'm reconciled to a 3-6 matchup with Memphis. I want to beat those guys - helped by the refs and celebrated excessively. And, then if TU can upset Cinncy, TU would deserve an at large bid.

 

[ctt8410]

So to simplify, root for Cinci and Uconn losses.

Well, maybe yes and maybe no. The other complicating factor is Tulsa's at-large resume. If UConn, Cinci, and Temple win out, it's possible that all 3 would now be top 50 RPI teams. If TU loses in the AAC championship game then we would have a 6-8 record against top 50 teams. In a vacuum that's a better at-large resume than our current 2-4 record and possibly enough to override the 2 bad losses. The problem with that scenario (as you may imagine) is that we're now competing for at-large spots with better resumes from at least 2 of those 3 teams.

 

[drboobay]

Well it is more fun to pick a path to root for, so I pick the conference tourney seedings path.

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

It's put up or shut up time. Just like their sophomore year, nobody can keep you out if you win them all.

 

[mcane]

I liked Hines scenario in this morning's Tulsa World of a 5 way tie for 2nd, with TU seeded 5th facing no. 4 Houston, then no. 1 Temple. That is probably the easiest path to the finals.

 

[TU_BLA]

I think Cincy loses their last 2 @Houston and vs. SMU (which undoubtedly was scheduled because the AAC thought it would decide the regular season championship).

 

[dfwcanefan]

I think Cincy loses their last 2 @Houston and vs. SMU (which undoubtedly was scheduled because the AAC thought it would decide the regular season championship).

I think the draw to avoid is the 3-6 Memphis game (RPI killer vs a team that just beat us), then Cincy (bad matchup) and then someone like Houston or Temple in the final (which I fear the national peanut gallery would start calling a play in game).

 

[I.I.]

Temple is the darling of the Eastern Media as well as home state UConn.

 

[astonmartin708]

I liked Hines scenario in this morning's Tulsa World of a 5 way tie for 2nd, with TU seeded 5th facing no. 4 Houston, then no. 1 Temple. That is probably the easiest path to the finals.

Any path through UH in the opening round isn't the easiest path. We only beat them when they didn't have their lead guard. When they did have their lead guard they smashed us.

 

[Weatherdemon]

Any path through UH in the opening round isn't the easiest path. We only beat them when they didn't have their lead guard. When they did have their lead guard they smashed us.

They did beat SMU without that guard FWIW

 

[quincy101]

Cincy &/or Houston would be scary to me. Despite Sampson's "iffy" past, the guy can coach. Houston to me is the best coached team in the league with perhaps less than the best athletes & the fewest "seniors" in the league. Hate to praise anything Houston, but there it is.

 

[bigzit]

Houston has talent. Sampson can coach, but he's a better recruiter. He's got some talent in Houston.

 

[lawpoke87]

If Sampson stays at Houston, they will be a factor in this conference going forward.

 

[t-townpod]

Helps to be a #1 or #2 seed, otherwise does not matter where we are. We have to win at least 2 against teams that if we don't hit 40% + from the 3 will beat us. Mr. Birt remains our key to getting to the NCAA tournament.

 

[Tulsafanzz]

My best scenario is : Tulsa draws the #2 seed. Then #7 UCF loses to #10 ECU. We beat ECU. Then #3 Cinci loses to #6 Memphis & Shaq Goodwin suffers a broken dreadlock/ponytail during the game. His hair stylist forces him to sit out our game. Then we beat Memphis & face a surprising #9 seed Tulane in the finals. Then we destroy Tulane in the AAC tournament final.

 

[Bill Lowery]

I think the most likely seeding is 1. Temple, 2. Houston, 3. Tulsa, 4. Cincy, 5. UConn, 6. Memphis.

Houston beats Cincy at home, UConn loses at SMU for a 3 way tie for 2nd (after SMU is taken out)--Tulsa, Houston and Cincy

I believe the tiebreaker is records against each other. Tulsa, Houston, Cincy all went 1-1

Then how each did against the conference champ. Temple swept Cincy and split with Tulsa and Houston. Cincy drops to a 4 seed.

Still tied, you go head to head with the next teams below the tied teams. Houston and Tulsa both split with UConn but Houston beat Memphis, Tulsa lost. Thus Houston get a 2 seed and Tulsa a 3 seed.

So Tulsa would play Memphis, Houston and then probably Cincy.

Now if Cincy beats Houston and SMU, they get the 2 seed. With a Houston loss, we'd get the 3 seed. Not favorable, with Memphis, then Cincy in the semi's.

Crazy stuff. Now my understanding of the tiebreakers could be wrong or we have a lot of upsets in the last 2 games and then who knows. I just got a headache, or is it from the myleogram I had yesterday. Lol

 

[I.I.]

We can take out half of all the scenarios after tomorrow night.

 

[mcane]

yes, I'm trying to avoid brain freeze until after the dust clears tomorrow night. I understand we are to root against Cincy.