Has Monty turned the corner?

chito_and_leon

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Looking at Monty's overall tenure, he's about a 45% winner, roughly 5-6 average. But if you just look at the last 2.5 years, he's at about 57% winning, between 6-5 or 7-4 average. 7-4 is where he would have been in 2020 with a full season. It seems like he's improved, but "New Monty" seems to be capped at around 7-4, maybe 8-3 with the wind at his back, with some 5-6 years thrown in. That kind of feels like Wojick/Haith territory, not good enough but too good to fire. Hopefully he can find a way to take it up another notch.
 

astonmartin708

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Looking at Monty's overall tenure, he's about a 45% winner, roughly 5-6 average. But if you just look at the last 2.5 years, he's at about 57% winning, between 6-5 or 7-4 average. 7-4 is where he would have been in 2020 with a full season. It seems like he's improved, but "New Monty" seems to be capped at around 7-4, maybe 8-3 with the wind at his back, with some 5-6 years thrown in. That kind of feels like Wojick/Haith territory, not good enough but too good to fire. Hopefully he can find a way to take it up another notch.
He’s not as bad as Wojcik / Haith. One thing that he has going for him is that he’s putting kids in the NFL and that will tend to help his odds to get out of this middling status. Theres a semi-decent chance that with UH, Cincy and UCF leaving the conference his teams could become the cream of the crop.
 

Hurricane Drummer II

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It does feel like Monty has a solid foundation laid for this program and we're seeing the fruits of that. I think not having a full-time OC holds us back to some extent, but we're doing pretty well without one so far this year. I feel like we're trending upwards.

Once the 3 leave for the Big 12 we'll be facing a level of competition closer to what Graham faced at TU (although probably still better). That may give us a better comparison between the 2 coaches.
 
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chito_and_leon

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He’s not as bad as Wojcik / Haith. One thing that he has going for him is that he’s putting kids in the NFL and that will tend to help his odds to get out of this middling status. Theres a semi-decent chance that with UH, Cincy and UCF leaving the conference his teams could become the cream of the crop.
While it feels that way to us, the data tell another story (assuming this random site is accurate). We're way down the list, behind a lot of lower level teams, like Rice, UTEP, Connecticut, MTSU, Central Michigan, App State, Montana St., Toledo, Florida Atlantic, SMU, etc. We're tied with notable powerhouses like Harvard, Samford (not Stanford), Villanova, Colorado State-Pueblo, and Eastern Washington.

A related point, it seems that outside the top tier with a zillion guys in the NFL, there does not seem to be much relationship between guys in the NFL and college team success, so I'm not sure your logic survives the facts :)

 
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chito_and_leon

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It does feel like Monty has a solid foundation laid for this program and we're seeing the fruits of that. I think not having a full-time OC holds us back to some extent, but we're doing pretty well without one so far this year. I feel like we're trending upwards.

Once the 3 leave for the Big 12 we'll be facing a level of competition closer to what Graham faced at TU (although probably still better). That may give us a better comparison between the 2 coaches.
I'm intrigued by the logic - "he's not a very good coach but it will be good enough when we're in a crappier conference". I can't say that it's crazy, especially since he's likely to stay forever and if he's in the top 2 or 3 in the new conference and stays, maybe that's not so bad. On the other hand, it feels a little defeatist. I don't know how I feel about this.

BTW, Frank did the same thing when he moved from Misery to here and it didn't help him, but he also had a decrease in resources, etc. and Monty presumably won't face that when the conference changes.
 

astonmartin708

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While it feels that way to us, the data tell another story (assuming this random site is accurate). We're way down the list, behind a lot of lower level teams, like Rice, UTEP, Connecticut, MTSU, Central Michigan, App State, Montana St., Toledo, Florida Atlantic, SMU, etc. We're tied with notable powerhouses like Harvard, Samford (not Stanford), Villanova, Colorado State-Pueblo, and Eastern Washington.

A related point, it seems that outside the top tier with a zillion guys in the NFL, there does not seem to be much relationship between guys in the NFL and college team success, so I'm not sure your logic survives the facts :)

That’s a really odd list. It muddles which position is being played with higher paid positions being more valued, and guys with longer careers or on non-rookie deals being more values.

For instance, I would argue that we’ve had better overall draft success than Wyoming aside from one QB who is getting paid a ton of money, we also had a guy like Reggie Robinson who fizzled out at Dallas, but that’s not our fault. He still helps prove we can get kids a shot at the next level.

Same goes for Akeyleb Evans. We developed him into someone with NFL potential.
 

astonmartin708

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I'm intrigued by the logic - "he's not a very good coach but it will be good enough when we're in a crappier conference". I can't say that it's crazy, especially since he's likely to stay forever and if he's in the top 2 or 3 in the new conference and stays, maybe that's not so bad. On the other hand, it feels a little defeatist. I don't know how I feel about this.

BTW, Frank did the same thing when he moved from Misery to here and it didn't help him, but he also had a decrease in resources, etc. and Monty presumably won't face that when the conference changes.
Frank mismanaged his roster, recruited poorly, and didn’t develop talent in house very well. None of those are the same problems that Monty is dealing with. Monty has utilized some bad systems over the years but we’ve seen that he has a propensity to improve after they do poorly (switching from a 4-3 to 3-3-5 and taking a terrible offense back to one of the better and more exciting ones in the nation)

My biggest gripe about Monty is that he just needs to put it all together at the same time. It always looks like one side of the ball or the other is dominant but the non-dominant one is holding the team back. He also needs to hire a clock management guy.

I would also argue that the culture inside the team under Month has been much better than the culture Haith or Wojcik instilled.
 

chito_and_leon

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That’s a really odd list. It muddles which position is being played with higher paid positions being more valued, and guys with longer careers or on non-rookie deals being more values.

For instance, I would argue that we’ve had better overall draft success than Wyoming aside from one QB who is getting paid a ton of money, we also had a guy like Reggie Robinson who fizzled out at Dallas, but that’s not our fault. He still helps prove we can get kids a shot at the next level.

Same goes for Akeyleb Evans. We developed him into someone with NFL potential.
You can sort by # of active players instead of earnings. Wyoming has 9 guys in the NFL, we have 4. Here's who they have. I think it's hard to argue that we're better, or on par with them.

The problem with this dataset is that it's backwards looking, so it gives a snapshot of the last 3 - 10+ years, depending on guys' longevity. If Monty turned a corner, you might not see it here for a few more years. I don't think the data show anything positive, but the data might not reflect it yet, but that's just our hope/belief, it's not a data thing.

 
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chito_and_leon

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Frank mismanaged his roster, recruited poorly, and didn’t develop talent in house very well. None of those are the same problems that Monty is dealing with. Monty has utilized some bad systems over the years but we’ve seen that he has a propensity to improve after they do poorly (switching from a 4-3 to 3-3-5 and taking a terrible offense back to one of the better and more exciting ones in the nation)

My biggest gripe about Monty is that he just needs to put it all together at the same time. It always looks like one side of the ball or the other is dominant but the non-dominant one is holding the team back. He also needs to hire a clock management guy.

I would also argue that the culture inside the team under Month has been much better than the culture Haith or Wojcik instilled.
But that's the thing with below average, average and slightly above average coaches - they all have their own set of problems. One's not better than the other, just different. If you're a bad employee because you're always late and are consistently stoned out of your mind and I'm a bad employee because I'm a jerk and treat co-workers like garbage, we're still bad employees. All turds smell a little different.
 

TU1NNJ

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I am not ready to say he has turned the corner. Need to see how the season plays out. There are some weaknesses that continue to need to be addressed. Hopefully the season ends positively.
 
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chito_and_leon

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I am not ready to say he has turned the corner. Need to see how the season plays out. There are some weaknesses that continue to need to be addressed. Hopefully the season ends positively.
yeah, agree. It seems pretty clear that he's improved, from below average to average or slightly above average. Questions are can he keep going to get to good or very good? And either way, for how long is slightly above good enough? Maybe forever?
 

TulsaGrad07

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His clock management is still a weakness. I think most people on here expected to be 2 and 2 heading into conference play, so he's in-line with expectations thus far. I feel the 2 we did lose were there for the taking, Wyoming loss was replete with individual player errors (Stokes, Long, Special Teams) and the MIssissippi loss was in part due to dishonest referees and Brin's injury. I'm glad we're not getting blown out. I've given up my Monty bashing, I just want Tulsa to win and see the stands fill up.
 

astonmartin708

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You can sort by # of active players instead of earnings. Wyoming has 9 guys in the NFL, we have 4. Here's who they have. I think it's hard to argue that we're better, or on par with them.

The problem with this dataset is that it's backwards looking, so it gives a snapshot of the last 3 - 10+ years, depending on guys' longevity. If Monty turned a corner, you might not see it here for a few more years. I don't think the data show anything positive, but the data might not reflect it yet, but that's just our hope/belief, it's not a data thing.

As we start to produce more players with acceptable NFL physical statures, I think that's going to change. We've had several guys come through who were simply too short to get a real look.

I also think with more of our guys showing success in the league (Gipson, Smith, and to a degree Collins) we should see more interest in our players. What I'm really waiting to see is a skill player get a real NFL shot.
 

drboobay

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But that's the thing with below average, average and slightly above average coaches - they all have their own set of problems. One's not better than the other, just different. If you're a bad employee because you're always late and are consistently stoned out of your mind and I'm a bad employee because I'm a jerk and treat co-workers like garbage, we're still bad employees. All turds smell a little different.
Lots of fun personality disorders spread about. Plus plain incompetence!
 
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drboobay

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As we start to produce more players with acceptable NFL physical statures, I think that's going to change. We've had several guys come through who were simply too short to get a real look.
2 first rounders.

How does that compare to Wyoming?
 

astonmartin708

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yeah, agree. It seems pretty clear that he's improved, from below average to average or slightly above average. Questions are can he keep going to get to good or very good? And either way, for how long is slightly above good enough? Maybe forever?
If you asked most coaches who coach against him I think they would argue that on average, Tulsa under Montgomery, is a good team and a tough team to play against.
 

chito_and_leon

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If you asked most coaches who coach against him I think they would argue that on average, Tulsa under Montgomery, is a good team and a tough team to play against.
For me, I would say that this as a metric for evaluating a coach is completely irrelevant. Wins, graduation rates, turning your NCAA forms in on time, I could see that. Popularity contest with other coaches? Meh. This is the kind of thing winning coaches always say in the post-game about losing coaches who are on the hotseat. Professional courtesy.
 
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chito_and_leon

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2 first rounders.

How does that compare to Wyoming?
I'm not invested in it enough to check. But you raise a good question, if he's "good enough" depends on what we consider "good enough" to be. Maybe it's "are we better than Wyoming (a team that's 45-50 in the last 8+ years)?" That's a pretty low standard and will give a very different answer than "can we hope to be in a position for one of the G5 spots in the playoff once and a while?" I think he's good enough for the Wyoming test and nowhere close for the playoff test, thus slightly above average. I personally think Monty = Haith = Monty, but I have lower expectations for TU FB so I don't care that much if we have a slightly above average coach producing slightly above average results in FB. Especially if the offense scores a lot and it's fun to watch.
 

OKTornadoes

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To me, Monty has to break the "big game/P5 wall" to have 100% turned the corner.

Blankenship won his only conference title match up AND turned around and socked a Big 12 team for a Liberty Bowl win. His best season was that 2012 season and his 3 losses were all close enough that they easily could have been wins. I guess you could argue the comeback vs. SMU failing doesn't count as we were getting blown up most of that game.

Graham beat Notre Dame at South Bend. His best season was 2008 where we made it to 8-0 before garbage play calling and Arky referees cost us a game we should have easily won. However, he did get randomly destroyed by Houston and lost the title game. IMHO, he did have "lightning" success with two offensive coordinators who went on to be P5 head coaches for a moment.

Monty's 2 "best" seasons (2016 and 2020) could have easily been breaking points if not for talent and a bit of luck. They were simply polar opposites of 2018 and 2019. All had way too many close games, but during 2016 and now recently they have usually tilted our way.

I will give him this --- it isn't a mental fait accompli that we are going to lose to the "big schools" when we play them, and he has developed talent well. The #1 draft picks during back to back seasons during a pandemic is pretty impressive. One could say that maybe has more to do with Joseph Gillespie thank Monty, though.

Just my two cents. I won't bash him too much, the last 2 seasons went way better than expected. I did expect to be 3-1 beginning conference play, but 2-2 is better than the 1-3 some people were predicting.
 

dougheffking

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To me, Monty has to break the "big game/P5 wall" to have 100% turned the corner.

Blankenship won his only conference title match up AND turned around and socked a Big 12 team for a Liberty Bowl win. His best season was that 2012 season and his 3 losses were all close enough that they easily could have been wins. I guess you could argue the comeback vs. SMU failing doesn't count as we were getting blown up most of that game.

Graham beat Notre Dame at South Bend. His best season was 2008 where we made it to 8-0 before garbage play calling and Arky referees cost us a game we should have easily won. However, he did get randomly destroyed by Houston and lost the title game. IMHO, he did have "lightning" success with two offensive coordinators who went on to be P5 head coaches for a moment.

Monty's 2 "best" seasons (2016 and 2020) could have easily been breaking points if not for talent and a bit of luck. They were simply polar opposites of 2018 and 2019. All had way too many close games, but during 2016 and now recently they have usually tilted our way.

I will give him this --- it isn't a mental fait accompli that we are going to lose to the "big schools" when we play them, and he has developed talent well. The #1 draft picks during back to back seasons during a pandemic is pretty impressive. One could say that maybe has more to do with Joseph Gillespie thank Monty, though.

Just my two cents. I won't bash him too much, the last 2 seasons went way better than expected. I did expect to be 3-1 beginning conference play, but 2-2 is better than the 1-3 some people were predicting.
Please don't ever mention Blankenship in any breath of being a good coach for TU. Just stop.
 
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OKTornadoes

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Please don't ever mention Blankenship in any breath of being a good coach for TU. Just stop.
I wasn't so much doing that as I was simply offering up a comparison of Monty vs. BB and Graham. I have never once uttered the words "good coach" and " Bill Blankenship" together, I was not nearly as excited about that hire as some seemed to be. A good coach at the HS level? Yes. A good coach for TU after all of the hard work Steve and Todd put in to rebuild the program? No way. If Bill was at least a decent head FBS coach, he would easily have two C-USA titles. 2013 was supposed to be, and should have easily been, a cake walk.
 

chito_and_leon

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To me, Monty has to break the "big game/P5 wall" to have 100% turned the corner.

Blankenship won his only conference title match up AND turned around and socked a Big 12 team for a Liberty Bowl win. His best season was that 2012 season and his 3 losses were all close enough that they easily could have been wins. I guess you could argue the comeback vs. SMU failing doesn't count as we were getting blown up most of that game.

Graham beat Notre Dame at South Bend. His best season was 2008 where we made it to 8-0 before garbage play calling and Arky referees cost us a game we should have easily won. However, he did get randomly destroyed by Houston and lost the title game. IMHO, he did have "lightning" success with two offensive coordinators who went on to be P5 head coaches for a moment.

Monty's 2 "best" seasons (2016 and 2020) could have easily been breaking points if not for talent and a bit of luck. They were simply polar opposites of 2018 and 2019. All had way too many close games, but during 2016 and now recently they have usually tilted our way.

I will give him this --- it isn't a mental fait accompli that we are going to lose to the "big schools" when we play them, and he has developed talent well. The #1 draft picks during back to back seasons during a pandemic is pretty impressive. One could say that maybe has more to do with Joseph Gillespie thank Monty, though.

Just my two cents. I won't bash him too much, the last 2 seasons went way better than expected. I did expect to be 3-1 beginning conference play, but 2-2 is better than the 1-3 some people were predicting.
Very well said. What Graham had going for him is that his ambition/survival instinct were almost as strong as his ego, so he would suck it up and make changes. Remember the disastrous "I'll be my on OC" year? He was smart enough not to stick with that, and to hire strong OCs. Our most frustrating coaches have all been "my way or the highway" types who refuse to change. Remember Blankenship doubling down on his pathetic offense with the spiteful/passive aggressive hire of his son as OC? To Monty's credit, he's loosened up his offense and that's moved him from "why the fudge haven't we fired this guy" to "meh, he's ok". Question is, can/will he change more to get over the hump?
 

OKTornadoes

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Very well said. What Graham had going for him is that his ambition/survival instinct were almost as strong as his ego, so he would suck it up and make changes. Remember the disastrous "I'll be my on OC" year? He was smart enough not to stick with that, and to hire strong OCs. Our most frustrating coaches have all been "my way or the highway" types who refuse to change. Remember Blankenship doubling down on his pathetic offense with the spiteful/passive aggressive hire of his son as OC? To Monty's credit, he's loosened up his offense and that's moved him from "why the fudge haven't we fired this guy" to "meh, he's ok". Question is, can/will he change more to get over the hump?
2009 was such an odd point on the TG timeline, I was super happy to see Morris come on board.... Not so happy when both bolted at the end of the season, but that's another story lol.

Bill looked like his entire staff and team was sinking by the end of 2014. I know FAU made it a fight, but the difference between what we got on 9/5/2015 vs. 11/27/14 was noticeable before the game started. Even through the bad of 2017-2019, Monty's guys have never quit on him.
 
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astonmartin708

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For me, I would say that this as a metric for evaluating a coach is completely irrelevant. Wins, graduation rates, turning your NCAA forms in on time, I could see that. Popularity contest with other coaches? Meh. This is the kind of thing winning coaches always say in the post-game about losing coaches who are on the hotseat. Professional courtesy.
I mean if you asked them blind.
 

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