Going for it on 4th and 4 was the right call

[ctt8410]

Win Probability before the play: 76.9%
WP if you don't convert: 73.1%
WP if you convert: 88.8%

So anything better than a 25% chance to convert is +EV.

The average college conversion rate on 4th and 4 is ~40%.

 

[jesterondirt]

Taking the sack was my only complaint. It has to be in your head before the snap what to do in worst case scenario. Even if you just heave it down the field for a jump ball, and it gets intercepted, you are still in better shape.

 

[nevadanatural]

I agree with Jester. Put a blocker in the backfield to pick up the blitzer and give Smith a chance for a completion or dump the ball. We all knew it was coming because it was coming all night. We did nothing to punish the blitz, no draws, no screens, no quick passes at all.

 

[Weatherdemon]

I agree with Jester. Put a blocker in the backfield to pick up the blitzer and give Smith a chance for a completion or dump the ball. We all knew it was coming because it was coming all night. We did nothing to punish the blitz, no draws, no screens, no quick passes at all.

Every time they did a mass defensive sub, they brought a blitz.
They did that on that 4th down.

 

[TU1NNJ]

Win Probability before the play: 76.9%
WP if you don't convert: 73.1%
WP if you convert: 88.8%

So anything better than a 25% chance to convert is +EV.

The average college conversion rate on 4th and 4 is ~40%.

I am sure you are correct statistically but what are the stats for a team going 90 yards or 75 yards for a TD? At that point we had a 10 point lead and their offense had not shown much life since the first drive. I am sure most college coaches would have punted and forced a long field drive given how well the defense had played to that point.

 

[astonmartin708]

I am sure you are correct statistically but what are the stats for a team going 90 yards or 75 yards for a TD? At that point we had a 10 point lead and their offense had not shown much life since the first drive. I am sure most college coaches would have punted and forced a long field drive given how well the defense had played to that point.

And a lot of college coaches would have lost that way.

 

[TU1NNJ]

And a lot of college coaches would have lost that way.

... and we almost did! That decision changed the momentum of the game.

 

[TU1NNJ]

Finally got home and I just watched the replay. I was wrong on the score at the time. It came after Wyoming scored the TD to make it 17-14. I still don’t agree with the call but it is more understandable after our D just gave up a TD pass the previous series.

PS and OT:
I forgot what it was like in the days before everything was on TV (I didn’t have access to the game). Trying to follow the streaming ticker from TU, reading the game thread and getting texts from my Dad at the game was still better than waiting for a score to stream across the bottom of the TV every 15 to 20 minutes. In the late 80’s and 90’s I would get so desperate that I would call long distance to KRMG and ask for the score. Sometimes the guy would get tired of the frequency of the calls and would let me listen over the phone line. Cost me some coin but I am a TU fan.

 

[jesterondirt]

Finally got home and I just watched the replay. I was wrong on the score at the time. It came after Wyoming scored the TD to make it 17-14. I still don’t agree with the call but it is more understandable after our D just gave up a TD pass the previous series.

PS and OT:
I forgot what it was like in the days before everything was on TV (I didn’t have access to the game). Trying to follow the streaming ticker from TU, reading the game thread and getting texts from my Dad at the game was still better than waiting for a score to stream across the bottom of the TV every 15 to 20 minutes. In the late 80’s and 90’s I would get so desperate that I would call long distance to KRMG and ask for the score. Sometimes the guy would get tired of the frequency of the calls and would let me listen over the phone line. Cost me some coin but I am a TU fan.

Haha no doubt.

I was in vegas one year and called my brother, he put the phone down by the radio and I listened to Rick and Bruce call the game.

We are basically spoiled now days right?