Games of Interest (2.27.20 and 2.28.20)

[loca2874]

Vanderbilt almost pulled it off against Missouri, Boise State tried against UNLV and ORU slips down to a Q4. Blech!!!

Todays Games

AAC Game

Temple (112) at Wichita State (46)

Rest of GOI

Western Illinois (329) at Oral Roberts (161)
Morehead State (321) at Austin Peay (155)

NET Rankings Through February 26

Houston (24) No Change
Wichita St (46) Down 3
Cincinnati (55) Down 1
Memphis (62) No Change
UConn (66) Up 4
SMU (81) No Change
Tulsa (86) No Change
Temple (112) No Change
UCF (127) No Change
South FL. (129) Down 6
Tulane (172) Down 3
ECU (195) No Change

Quadrant Tracker

Q1

Win

UConn (A) - W (66)
Houston (H) - W (24)

Loss

Arkansas (A) - L (45)
Cincinnati (A) - L (55)
Houston (A) - L (24)

Q2

Win

Memphis (H) - W (62)
Wichita State (H) - W (46)
USF (A) - W (129)

Loss

UT Arlington (A) - L (128)
Kansas State (A) - L (100)
UConn (H) - L (66)
UCF (A) - L (127)
Colorado State (N) - L (99)

Q3

Win

Austin Peay (H) - W (155)
Vanderbilt (A) - W (153)
Boise State (H) - W (93)
Temple (H) - W (111)
ECU (A) - W (195)
Tulane (A) - W (172)
SMU (H) - W (81)

Loss

Q4

Wins

Houston Baptist (H) - W (345)
Southeastern LA (H) - W (343)
South Carolina State (H) - W (322)
Arkansas Pine Bluff (H) - W (347)
ECU (H) - W (195)
Tulane (H) - W (172)
Oral Roberts (H) - W (161)

Loss

Arkansas State (H) - L (207)

 

[panicstricken]

Is there a way to Calculate what our NET would be if we won out?

 

[libertychamp]

Is there a way to Calculate what our NET would be if we won out?

We need temple to beat Wichita tonight

 

[loca2874]

Is there a way to Calculate what our NET would be if we won out?

No as it is a ranking and not a rating. It is calculated over several factors (I.e. offensive and defensive efficiency, etc.). This can only be calculated after the game has been played. After that it also depends on what other teams not In The GOI do in their games and how they move up or down.

 

[loca2874]

Is there a way to Calculate what our NET would be if we won out?

I do think that @ctt8410 has a way to calculate the BPI for future games. i am not positive though.

 

[panicstricken]

I think even if you win out and win the league which most likely aint happening it still wouldnt move enough to warrant at large. i would think at best it would be in the high 60s

 

[ctt8410]

This is the best we've got. Win out until the conference championship = 71

https://tinyurl.com/s6h98nj

 

[nevadanatural]

This puts me in mind of an exchange from Major League:

Jake: [stands] Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do.
Roger: What's that?
Jake: Win the whole ****ing thing.

 

[hotterthanyourhusbandTU]

This is another example of how critical the non-conference schedule is...even for the top conferences.

A team basically defines its “NET bandwidth” during the non-conference schedule.

As ole Joe Lunardi pointed out a couple of weeks ago, TU has three non-conference losses they probably can’t overcome without being nearly perfect in the AAC.

 

[drboobay]

With this team in particular I would feel pretty good about a run to 'first four out' and a #1 seed in the NIT. We are pretty damn tough at home and that would give us a path to MSG from home with a win streak.

Of course NCAA is much better. But it is one of those years where a great NIT seed would feel like a win.

 

[nevadanatural]

The projection CTT linked puts us in Dayton even if we had won the UConn and UCF games and made it to the tournament finals.

The same scenario except the conference wins and losses being the same as they are now and winning UTA and ASU also puts us in Dayton.

Edit: winning the conference tournament projects us as a 12 seed which I would love.

So, with the weak non-conference schedule we had to be almost perfect win or lose according to this prognosticator. The problem is you don’t know how good or bad your schedule is going to be until the games are played. When I first saw this schedule I figured it wouldn’t be as good as last years but it looked like a reasonable schedule for a team replacing some key parts to learn to play together without hurting the resume. Turns out some teams were much worse than expected and at least one of those teams had a career night shooting against us.

This year we lose Igbanu and Korita. If we can find some way to shore up that interior (Earley developing over the summer, new signee, grad transfer, etc.) we should be even better next season with a senior laden team. Hopefully we can put together a tougher schedule to build a better resume. Unfortunately things have changed since the 80s, we’re not going to get the Louisvilles and UNCs to come to the Reynolds Center. We are kind of stuck with buy games against the UCAs of the world or one and ones with UALR and MSU.

 

[astonmartin708]

Something I want to know.... why does our team travel so poorly? I'm wondering if it's not a logistics / administrative thing.

 

[Gold*]

Wow. You have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The logistics TU does is pretty impressive. I have witnessed it. They have thrown way more money at this and way more people than past teams that went far in the tournament. It looks like a pro team, but they rent the plane.

We haven’t been that bad on the road in conference.

Please talk about things you know about.

This ain’t one of them.

 

[Barlass]

With this team in particular I would feel pretty good about a run to 'first four out' and a #1 seed in the NIT. We are pretty damn tough at home and that would give us a path to MSG from home with a win streak.

Of course NCAA is much better. But it is one of those years where a great NIT seed would feel like a win.

If we do end up with some NIT home games, hopefully people show up. The crowds in 2015 when we were a 2 seed were terrible.

 

[TU 1978]

The NET is calculated BS when we are shown below SMU, Yukon and Memphis.

 

[TU_BLA]

Wow. You have no idea what the hell you are taking about. The logistics TU does is pretty impressive. I have witnessed it. They have thrown way more money at this and way more people than past teams that went far in the tournament. It looks like a pro team, but they rent the plane.

We haven’t been that bad on the road in conference.

Please talk about things you know about.

This ain’t one of them.

Our road record really isn't that bad, especially in conference. Yeah, we got walloped by Cincinnati and Houston but we beat Tulane and ECU on the road without too much of an issue and SMU lost to both of them on the road. Nights like Houston and Cincy happens. Both of those games were within a couple buckets at half. Cincy- we couldn't shoot. It happens. Houston- Uh, we got Mills'd. The more I think about it, that was one of the more impressive individual performances against us in a long time.

 

[I.I.]

It would be hard to keep the outright champion of the American conference out of the tournament if they make the finals .. It shows great momentum and end of season performance (How did you do in your last 10 games?) I know they now put more importance on your first 10 games of the season but no one (except this board) must have told Haith to be ready when the season started. The committee will most likely put both finals teams in the tournament if one of them won the conference title outright and the other is in the top 3 with a good NET, especially since the selection reveal occurs 28 or 29 minutes after the conclusion of that game.

 

[loca2874]

Wichita State holds on for the win

 

[loca2874]

ORU is hammering the leathernecks

Austin Peay is up on morehead

 

[libertychamp]

ORU is hammering the leathernecks

Austin Peay is up on morehead

Does a 3 point win for Wichita over temple help us and ctt chart shows us 9th team out if we move up to 8th team out will we get a 2 seed in nit or a4 seed if we win Saturday and lose on the road at temple and Wichita where we are big underdogs

 

[nevadanatural]

Watching WSU vs Temple I think rebounding is going to be uber important in these last three games.

 

[astonmartin708]

If we miss out on the tournament it will be partially be due to blowout road losses against UTA, Arkansas, Cincy, Houston, UCF.

Heck, even at a mediocre UConn team we had to win in overtime. We also had that loss to CSU only a couple miles away from our own rims. This isn’t the first year that we’ve had a stellar home record and a cruddy home record either.

I wasn’t saying that TU didn’t spend money on logistics for the games, I was saying that maybe it’s our strategy that’s failing us.

 

[Gold*]

If we miss out on the tournament it will be partially be due to blowout road losses against UTA, Arkansas, Cincy, Houston, UCF.

Heck, even at a mediocre UConn team we had to win in overtime. We also had that loss to CSU only a couple miles away from our own rims. This isn’t the first year that we’ve had a stellar home record and a cruddy home record either.

I wasn’t saying that TU didn’t spend money on logistics for the games, I was saying that maybe it’s our strategy that’s failing us.

You can look at what you said above. It was garbage.

You post a lot, but don’t live here and don’t have direct knowledge of program. Some of us go to games and have met some people.

We didn’t play well early in year. Then we did. That’s old news.

 

[URedskin54]

I don’t know about the rest of it, but the UConn win is Q1 for a reason. That win was big time

 

[astonmartin708]

You can look at what you said above. It was garbage.

You post a lot, but don’t live here and don’t have direct knowledge of program. Some of us go to games and have met some people.

We didn’t play well early in year. Then we did. That’s old news.

LMAO.

Enjoy missing out on the NCAA’s for a 4th straight season. I’m sure the folks you talk to in the program sure will.

 

[Gold*]

Klassy.

Enjoy not knowing wtf you are talking about.

 

[TU_BLA]

ORU is hammering the leathernecks

Austin Peay is up on morehead

ORU scores 113 pts, shot 63% from the field and 63% from 3 (17-27). Maybe we can convince one of their shooters to transfer

 

[loca2874]

Oral Roberts had a massive victory over the leathernecks yesterday and vaulted them pretty good that they should stay at least a Q3 for us.

Only one game today.

Texas State (116) at UT Arlington (128)

NET Rankings Through February 27

Houston (23) Up 1
Wichita St (48) Down 2
Cincinnati (53) Up 2
Memphis (62) No Change
UConn (66) No Change
SMU (81) No Change
Tulsa (83) Up 3
Temple (110) Up 2
UCF (127) No Change
South FL. (129) No Change
Tulane (172) No Change
ECU (195) No Change

Quadrant Tracker

Q1

Win

UConn (A) - W (66)
Houston (H) - W (23)

Loss

Arkansas (A) - L (41)
Cincinnati (A) - L (53)
Houston (A) - L (23)

Q2

Win

Memphis (H) - W (62)
Wichita State (H) - W (48)
USF (A) - W (129)

Loss

UT Arlington (A) - L (128)
Kansas State (A) - L (101)
UConn (H) - L (66)
UCF (A) - L (127)
Colorado State (N) - L (99)

Q3

Win

Austin Peay (H) - W (153)
Vanderbilt (A) - W (155)
Boise State (H) - W (93)
Temple (H) - W (112)
ECU (A) - W (195)
Tulane (A) - W (172)
SMU (H) - W (81)
Oral Roberts (H) - W (146)

Loss

Q4

Wins

Houston Baptist (H) - W (345)
Southeastern LA (H) - W (343)
South Carolina State (H) - W (325)
Arkansas Pine Bluff (H) - W (347)
ECU (H) - W (195)
Tulane (H) - W (172)

Loss

Arkansas State (H) - L (205)

 

[goldenhurricane2]

LMAO.

Enjoy missing out on the NCAA’s for a 4th straight season. I’m sure the folks you talk to in the program sure will.

if I didn’t know any better, I’d assume you were a troll from another team’s crappy fan base.

 

[Weatherdemon]

It looks like we chances for another Q1 (@WSU), Q2 (@Temple), and Q3 (vs UCF) wins.

Best case is what, NET of 60?
22-9
3-3 vs Q1.
4-5 vs Q2.
9-0 vs Q3.
6-1 vs Q4.

AAC tourney would likely be something like Q3, Q2, and Q1 with a best case of Q3, Q1, and Q1?

It seems that if we could win out through the championship game that we would have a legitimate shot at an at-large bid assuming the championship loss was not a blowout.

 

[loca2874]

It looks like we chances for another Q1 (@WSU), Q2 (@Temple), and Q3 (vs UCF) wins.

Best case is what, NET of 60?
22-9
3-3 vs Q1.
4-5 vs Q2.
9-0 vs Q3.
6-1 vs Q4.

AAC tourney would likely be something like Q3, Q2, and Q1 with a best case of Q3, Q1, and Q1?

It seems that if we could win out through the championship game that we would have a legitimate shot at an at-large bid assuming the championship loss was not a blowout.

That looks close enough to me. As for the tournament if we win out we will be the 2 seed as Cincinnati and Houston play each other Sunday. That means we might play UConn or USF as of right now and best case scenario our games would be Q2, Q1, Q1 in the tourney going through the championship.

 

[red dirt]

Remember that Aston still wants Woj to be the coach and thinks Woodard is the greatest player to ever play at TU. That tells you the expertise.

 

[Bill Lowery]

Wow. You have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The logistics TU does is pretty impressive. I have witnessed it. They have thrown way more money at this and way more people than past teams that went far in the tournament. It looks like a pro team, but they rent the plane.

We haven’t been that bad on the road in conference.

Please talk about things you know about.

This ain’t one of them.

I just read this thread.

Most teams don’t have good true road records. Houston is the only AAC team with a winning road record (6-5. We’re 5-6.

Baylor and Kansas are the only 2 Big12 teams with a winning road record. Texas Tech 3-6, W Vir 3-8, OU 3-8, TCU 1-8, I-St 0-9, K-St 1-9.

Kentucky, S Car and Texas A&M are the only SEC teams with a winning road record.

I didn’t look but I imagine most of the other conferences are the same. Any road win is a good win.

 

[Barlass]

Remember that Aston still wants Woj to be the coach and thinks Woodard is the greatest player to ever play at TU. That tells you the expertise.

Don't hate on Juice.

 

[ctt8410]

Haslametrics ranks Tulsa 324th in their away from home metric. We're a bad road team.

 

[Gold*]

I rank Halsametrics 325 in my rankings. I don’t know if they are good or bad, but I thought I’d be $h!tty.

Regardless, it’s not the fault of TU’s organization and game day logistics. They do a first rate job at that for the players.

 

[I.I.]

One of the worst road teams ever in the SEC was Arkansas under Nolan and Anderson. This year is bad too for the hogs on the road. The hogs make up for it at home when the refs swallow the whistles.

 

[astonmartin708]

I rank Halsametrics 325 in my rankings. I don’t know if they are good or bad, but I thought I’d be $h!tty.

Regardless, it’s not the fault of TU’s organization and game day logistics. They do a first rate job at that for the players.

I was just spitballing. I just want to know WHY we’re a bad road team.

 

[hotterthanyourhusbandTU]

An aspect of the NET that calculates us as a “bad” road team (in comparison to the other bubble teams) related to the poundings we took on the road...

We’re going the see a substantially negative impact related to “NET Efficiency” and “Scoring Margin”.

Our road poundings...
@ UTA: 59-73
@ The Pigs: 79-98
@ Cincy: 44-75
@ UH: 43-76

By comparison, Houston’s road losses are uber-close (except for the Ducks)...

@ Ducks: 66-78
@ TU: 61-63
@ Cincy: 62-64
@ Pony: 72-73
@ Memphis: 59-60

I understand UH isn’t a bubble team, but their road wins without blowout road losses have really boosted their NET rating/ranking.

 

[nevadanatural]

When it comes to “blowouts” though 10 pts is the same as 100 where the NET is concerned. While we were all excited by beating Memphis 80-40 the NET would have reacted the same if it was 80-70 as far as MOV is concerned. Now there are added advantages to running up the score due to the offensive and defensive efficiency factors.