Games of Interest (1.26.20 and 1.27.20)

[loca2874]

There are only 2 games today and both are conference games. We did go down 4 which is almost what I expected and was jumped by the SMOO. Lets get a win in Hartford today.

Todays Games

Tulsa (69) at Connecticut (86)
South Florida (143) at Houston (34)

NET Rankings Through January 25
Wichita St (30) Down 1
Houston (34) Up 2
Memphis (52) Down 10
Cincinnati (58) Down 2
SMU (60) Up 8
Tulsa (69) Down 4
UConn (86) No Change
Temple (95)Down 10
UCF (116) Up 2
South FL. (143) No Change
Tulane (152) Down 26
ECU (221) Up 22

 

[hotterthanyourhusbandTU]

Prediction on the bump?

My guess is 58.

 

[TulsaFan01]

Would love to pass the SMOO

 

[TU_BLA]

Q2 road win should be a nice bump right?

 

[loca2874]

Prediction on the bump?

My guess is 58.

I am predicting between 55-59. Being as high as we are right now these wins won’t give massive boosts unless we beat duke, Virginia or Gonzaga

I do feel that we’re are going to be talked about more and if we can beat Wichita State then we will be a firm bubble team and not a lock because of our OOC record.

We need Memphis to win the rest of their games to help out Q rating

 

[loca2874]

Great win at UConn yesterday. Unfortunately we only went up 2 spots in the NET. We need Memphis to start playing better and we need to focus on beating Wichita State Saturday. Marshall has taken notice on what we have done and he will be prepared to play us on Saturday. We better be ready to play them.

Todays games

AAC

No Games

Rest of GOI

Bethune Cookman (294) at South Carolina State (305)
Arkansas Pine Bluff (344) at Texas Southern (220)


NET Rankings Through January 26

Wichita St (31) Down 1
Houston (33) Up 1
Memphis (51) Down 1
Cincinnati (58) No Change
SMU (60) No Change
Tulsa (67) Up 2
Temple (95) No Change
UConn (96) Down 10
UCF (116) No Change
South FL. (148) Down 5
Tulane (152) No Change
ECU (221) No Change

 

[ba11game]

I was kind of surprised at the difference in movement between us and UCONN, but I realize it's harder to move up the higher you are. The RPI used to give a raw number score so it was easier to tell if other teams just moved up more.

 

[hotterthanyourhusbandTU]

We’re starting to realize how bad our OOC performance was...

1. The strength of schedule was way worse than assumed (K-State and Vandy)
2. We underachieved (A-State, UTA, CSU).

We almost have to “run the table” to offset the OOC.

Related to NET, the higher we get, the less movement. I’m a little worried we’ve “plateaued”.

For the most part, we’ll have to win every game to maintain our current rating. The opportunities to get a bump will be @Houston and @Wichita State.

 

[bluegold70]

Is there some place I can find a simple explanation of the Net Rankings? If it's in another thread I will be happy to look it up. Thanks in advance.

 

[ctt8410]

Is there some place I can find a simple explanation of the Net Rankings? If it's in another thread I will be happy to look it up. Thanks in advance.

Only in very general, very opaque terms. And while the ratings themself have been fine, it's always rubbed me the wrong way how secretive they've been about the entire thing since it was first announced.

 

[loca2874]

We’re starting to realize how bad our OOC performance was...

1. The strength of schedule was way worse than assumed (K-State and Vandy)
2. We underachieved (A-State, UTA, CSU).

We almost have to “run the table” to offset the OOC.

Related to NET, the higher we get, the less movement. I’m a little worried we’ve “plateaued”.

For the most part, we’ll have to win every game to maintain our current rating. The opportunities to get a bump will be @Houston and @Wichita State.

So we all have known that we have underachieved in our OOC schedule. This has not been a secret to anyone unless they have been under a rock. Our best chance of moving up is the Houston and both Wichita State games as we wont see Cincinnati or Memphis again unless it is in the AAC tournament. We can still move up with wins over other teams as long as team above us lose to teams below us (which does happen. We don't have to run the table. We can lose to Wichita State and Houston and still be fine. When we get to the tournament we need to win a couple of games in the tournament.

If we win against Wichita State Saturday then we will be considered a legit bubble team if we aren't considered one right now. What we need is for Memphis to start winning games and not losing like they have. We need Houston and Wichita State to win games as well. Let both of them climb as high as they can. These rankings do take into consideration who the team we beat has beaten. So we just need them winning games.

We have plenty of room to climb up.

 

[nevadanatural]

When it comes to the bubble what will hurt us most is the fact that currently there are few possibilities for Q1 wins. @WSU and @Houston are the only possibilities. If they keep winning it’s possible that home games with WSU and Houston could end up Q1 but it’s kind of a catch 22 because if we beat them they drop in the rankings. We need to pile up as many Q2 wins as we can. With the current net rankings that would be:

WSU home
Houston home (w)
Memphis home (w)
SMU home
Temple away
UConn away (w)
UCF away

Q1 possibilities:

Houston away
WSU away

 

[Gmoney4WW]

If they keep winning it’s possible that home games with WSU and Houston could end up Q1 but it’s kind of a catch 22 because if we beat them they drop in the rankings.

 

[Clong83a]

In retrospect, the bad losses (save Ark. St.) were all on the road. Not sure what the lesson there is, other than perhaps we should always try to play as many home games as possible in OOC without tanking our SOS. But that is obvious and I am sure the coaching staff and AD already do their best on that front. I don't think it was a bad OOC schedule, but we just didn't do very well on the road.

It's possible the selection committee notices that too, and gives them a little leeway on early road losses. Time will tell. First thing is first though, they have to keep winning.

 

[astonmartin708]

In retrospect, the bad losses (save Ark. St.) were all on the road. Not sure what the lesson there is, other than perhaps we should always try to play as many home games as possible in OOC without tanking our SOS. But that is obvious and I am sure the coaching staff and AD already do their best on that front. I don't think it was a bad OOC schedule, but we just didn't do very well on the road.

It's possible the selection committee notices that too, and gives them a little leeway on early road losses. Time will tell. First thing is first though, they have to keep winning.

CSU wasn't really a road game either. I will excuse @KState and @Arkansas. The rest are dings against us for sure. Especially UTA. That was probably the worst loss we've happened upon.

 

[Clong83a]

CSU wasn't really a road game either. I will excuse @KState and @Arkansas. The rest are dings against us for sure. Especially UTA. That was probably the worst loss we've happened upon.

Ah, okay. I don't live in the area and forgot it was at the BOK. But CSU isn't exactly a terrible team, either. I wouldn't count that one as a "bad" loss.

 

[loca2874]

When it comes to the bubble what will hurt us most is the fact that currently there are few possibilities for Q1 wins. @WSU and @Houston are the only possibilities. If they keep winning it’s possible that home games with WSU and Houston could end up Q1 but it’s kind of a catch 22 because if we beat them they drop in the rankings. We need to pile up as many Q2 wins as we can. With the current net rankings that would be:

WSU home
Houston home (w)
Memphis home (w)
SMU home
Temple away
UConn away (w)
UCF away

Q1 possibilities:

Houston away
WSU away

If Memphis will win the rest of their games that could end up being a Q1.

 

[drboobay]

If any of the away teams we beat can creep back into the top 70 from the 90s that might help.

But it is sort of a zero sum game now with opponents playing one another.

 

[drboobay]

UTA has been hanging within sniffing distance of the top 100. Ark State is the really bad loss. Around 200 and at home.

 

[Clong83a]

UTA has been hanging within sniffing distance of the top 100. Ark State is the really bad loss. Around 200 and at home.

I dispute that claim. UTA are 9-12 and tied for fifth in the sun belt. I don't think they go anywhere from here but down.

But just for the sheer irony of it, CSU's worst loss by far is also Ark State. Also lost to them at home.

 

[drboobay]

Here are the quadrant rules. Right now we have one q3 loss in Co State but they are a hair away from pushing into the top 100. That would put that loss into q2.

Arkansas State is a q4 loss. If the could push into the top 160 it might help us a little by pushing that game to q3.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

 

[TU 1978]

I think the OOC schedule will have less impact than you think.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

I think the OOC schedule will have less impact than you think.

Yeah if we can win enough games to keep our recent rep as the shiny new thing, I don't think it will be as important as some people are worried about. First stop on that tour is beating Wichita St. next Saturday.

 

[loca2874]

Here You go this is what I have

Quadrant Tracker

Q1
Win

None

Loss

Arkansas (A) - L (28)
Cincinnati (A) - L (58)

Q2

Win

Houston (H) - W (33)
Memphis (H) - W (51)
UConn (A) - W (96)

Loss

UT Arlington (A) - L (114)
Kansas State (A) - L (88)

Q3

Win

Oral Roberts (H) - W (121)
Austin Peay (H) - W (128)
Vanderbilt (A) - W (163)
Boise State (H) - W (101)
Temple (H) - W (95)
ECU (A) - W (221)
Tulane (A) - W (152)

Loss

Colorado State (N) - L (102)

Q4

Wins

Houston Baptist (H) - W (346)
Southeastern LA (H) - W (332)
South Carolina State (H) - W (305)

Loss

Arkansas State (H) - L (185)

 

[drboobay]

Right and a little run from Co State will push that to q2.

 

[nevadanatural]

I didn’t see the UTA game so I can’t comment on it but Arkansas state was a fluke loss. Those guys were firing up prayers all game and they were going in. The most memorable for me was the guy who was falling out of bounds with one second on the shot clock, threw the ball in the direction of the basket and it went in for three points. There were also some from three to five feet beyond the arc. These things happen and thankfully the players don’t dwell on it like the fans do.

The losses that bother me more are CSU and K-state. If our three best players aren’t sitting with 5 fouls in that third OT I think the CSU game would have been a win. We play like we’re playing now and K-state is a beat down. We win those 2 and our record now would be 16-4 and everyone would be talking NCAA seed rather than in or out.

In the long run we finish in the top 3 in conference we should be ok. None of our losses are the sub 200 or 300 we’ve seen in the past.

 

[astonmartin708]

I didn’t see the UTA game so I can’t comment on it but Arkansas state was a fluke loss. Those guys were firing up prayers all game and they were going in. The most memorable for me was the guy who was falling out of bounds with one second on the shot clock, threw the ball in the direction of the basket and it went in for three points. There were also some from three to five feet beyond the arc. These things happen and thankfully the players don’t dwell on it like the fans do.

The losses that bother me more are CSU and K-state. If our three best players aren’t sitting with 5 fouls in that third OT I think the CSU game would have been a win. We play like we’re playing now and K-state is a beat down. We win those 2 and our record now would be 16-4 and everyone would be talking NCAA seed rather than in or out.

In the long run we finish in the top 3 in conference we should be ok. None of our losses are the sub 200 or 300 we’ve seen in the past.

My problem with UTA is that it wasn't just a loss, it was a beatdown and they have a losing record with losses to teams like Furman.

 

[loca2874]

I didn’t see the UTA game so I can’t comment on it but Arkansas state was a fluke loss. Those guys were firing up prayers all game and they were going in. The most memorable for me was the guy who was falling out of bounds with one second on the shot clock, threw the ball in the direction of the basket and it went in for three points. There were also some from three to five feet beyond the arc. These things happen and thankfully the players don’t dwell on it like the fans do.

The losses that bother me more are CSU and K-state. If our three best players aren’t sitting with 5 fouls in that third OT I think the CSU game would have been a win. We play like we’re playing now and K-state is a beat down. We win those 2 and our record now would be 16-4 and everyone would be talking NCAA seed rather than in or out.

In the long run we finish in the top 3 in conference we should be ok. None of our losses are the sub 200 or 300 we’ve seen in the past.

The problem with the UTA game is that our guys were trying to play street ball and not team basketball. I was really hating Rachal, Joiner and Igbanu after that game. After that butt whippin they started playing like a team. I am just glad we beat Houston Baptist

 

[Barlass]

I didn’t see the UTA game so I can’t comment on it but Arkansas state was a fluke loss. Those guys were firing up prayers all game and they were going in. The most memorable for me was the guy who was falling out of bounds with one second on the shot clock, threw the ball in the direction of the basket and it went in for three points. There were also some from three to five feet beyond the arc. These things happen and thankfully the players don’t dwell on it like the fans do.

The more I think about that Ark State game (which I was at), I blame it on Haith. We jumped out to a big lead and then they seized the momentum and Haith refused to call a time out to stunt it. I didn't understand it then and I don't understand it now.

I give Haith all sorts of praise for getting the team to where it is now but 6 years of these early season losses has constantly put us up against the 8 ball.

 

[URedskin54]

Can't say I agree with Arkansas State being a fluke loss. We hadn't played well in several of our early season games against poor teams and it came back to bite us when one of them hit a few tough shots. Maybe the worst team in the country, Houston Baptist, would have done the same thing if they hit a few more shots. We just weren't a good team then. We are right now.

Arkansas State also isn't that bad

 

[tulsahurricane0530]

Arkansas st isnt our worst loss. Their 15-7 overall, 3rd in the sunbelt right now. UTA is the one that is going to hurt the most by seasons end. But like someone else has said, the committee does look at how a team is playing at the end. I think that will be the determining factor

 

[TulsaFan01]

Arky St was pretty much closing their eyes and throwing it behind their backs. They could have beat the Globetrotters that night..

 

[URedskin54]

Unfortunately we were playing like the Washington Generals

 

[drboobay]

Arkansas st isnt our worst loss. Their 15-7 overall, 3rd in the sunbelt right now. UTA is the one that is going to hurt the most by seasons end. But like someone else has said, the committee does look at how a team is playing at the end. I think that will be the determining factor

The NET says otherwise. Plus it was a road game.

 

[URedskin54]

RE a game of non-interest: How the heck is Lindy Waters still in college?

 

[nevadanatural]

The NET says otherwise. Plus it was a road game.

Exactly. Things may change as UTA wanders through their conference schedule but as of this moment UTA is Q2 while ASU is Q4.

 

[Gold*]

RE a game of non-interest: How the heck is Lindy Waters still in college?

OSU is hard for some people. Not everybody can read and do basic math.

 

[Gold*]

nm

 

[astonmartin708]

The NET says otherwise. Plus it was a road game.

UTA started way higher in the Net than they should have been. It seems like NET is also giving them credit for how many good teams they lost to on the road.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

NM