Don’t look now but…

[astonmartin708]

Domestic oil and natural gas production are both trending towards all time highs.

No wonder you don’t hear republicans complaining about our energy production situation as much any more. It’s still going to be a rough winter considering the amount we’re going to have to export to Europe though.

 

[lawpoke87]

Yet we keep cutting out 2023 forecasts. Not great news given OPEC’s recent moves and the Russian situation. Demand still forecast to increase in ‘23.

Oil-Supply Woes Mount as US Cuts Production Forecast Again

The US government lowered its annual oil production targets and raised its global demand outlook, adding to supply risks as OPEC and its allies plan output cuts to defend crude prices.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[astonmartin708]

Yet we keep cutting out 2023 forecasts. Not great news given OPEC’s recent moves and the Russian situation. Demand still forecast to increase in ‘23.

Oil-Supply Woes Mount as US Cuts Production Forecast Again

The US government lowered its annual oil production targets and raised its global demand outlook, adding to supply risks as OPEC and its allies plan output cuts to defend crude prices.

www.bloomberg.com

Cut it to an amount that's still a record, and it's mostly explained by the business practices of exploration companies.

 

[lawpoke87]

Cut it to an amount that's still a record, and it's mostly explained by the business practices of exploration companies.

Wasn’t my intent to debate the many reason our 2023 production forecast keeps being reduced. The point was simply that we should be increasing our forecast production given the current economic and political conditions. Our predicted production is going to fall short of what’s needed unless something drastically changes on the political front.

 

[noble cane]

Cut it to an amount that's still a record, and it's mostly explained by the business practices of exploration companies.

If only the government owned all those companies...

 

[astonmartin708]

Wasn’t my intent to debate the many reason our 2023 production forecast keeps being reduced. The point was simply that we should be increasing our forecast production given the current economic and political conditions. Our predicted production is going to fall short of what’s needed unless something drastically changes on the political front.

We can only sustain so much supply growth with any confidence. Without an emergency order nationalizing the exploration decisions of oil companies, you can’t make them take financial risk against their will by drilling a well that may cause a supply glut in 2 years and never pay for itself.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

We can only sustain so much supply growth with any confidence. Without an emergency order nationalizing the exploration decisions of oil companies, you can’t make them take financial risk against their will by drilling a well that may cause a supply glut in 2 years and never pay for itself.

I don't think they are going to have to worry about a massive supply glut. Europe as a customer, will take that risk away. They aren't ever going to depend on Russia again. Even a worldwide supply glut probably won't be a huge risk.

 

[lawpoke87]

We can only sustain so much supply growth with any confidence. Without an emergency order nationalizing the exploration decisions of oil companies, you can’t make them take financial risk against their will by drilling a well.

Or you could reinstate the regulations and tax structure as it existed in 2019 as well as come out and strongly support investment in O&G exploration. All of which would alter the ROI analysis as well as reduce risk.

 

[URedskin54]

I do love the dual arguments of “we must make fossil fuels a less desirable investment, the planet depends on it” and “well the only reason supply isn’t growing faster is because companies are deciding not to invest”

 

[aTUfan]

Yet we keep cutting out 2023 forecasts. Not great news given OPEC’s recent moves and the Russian situation. Demand still forecast to increase in ‘23.

Oil-Supply Woes Mount as US Cuts Production Forecast Again

The US government lowered its annual oil production targets and raised its global demand outlook, adding to supply risks as OPEC and its allies plan output cuts to defend crude prices.

www.bloomberg.com

2019 numbers or biden numbers

 

[aTUfan]

I do love the dual arguments of “we must make fossil fuels a less desirable investment, the planet depends on it” and “well the only reason supply isn’t growing faster is because companies are deciding not to invest”

because of new gov policies.

 

[astonmartin708]

Or you could reinstate the regulations and tax structure as it existed in 2019 as well as come out and strongly support investment in O&G exploration. All of which would alter the ROI analysis as well as reduce risk.

A) The regulations and tax structure in 2019 weren't driving significant investment at the time. Trust me. I was speaking to most of these companies.... well the ones that were still in business that is.

B) Why trade one problem just to make another one worse?

 

[astonmartin708]

I do love the dual arguments of “we must make fossil fuels a less desirable investment, the planet depends on it” and “well the only reason supply isn’t growing faster is because companies are deciding not to invest”

Why does Oil have to (or get to) live on a perpetual sweetheart deal? Any other industry would kill for some of the inherent advantages that they still have to this day. Like states saying they have the right to capture taxable mineral resources on any piece of private or state land so long as the wellsite is a certain distance from a residential structure and as long as they offer a 'fair' surface lease price. And if the surface owner or mineral lease owner don't want to play ball, then it's essentially tough noogies unless they can show they are going to access those minerals themselves in a timely manner. Do you know how many renewables installations would be immediately green lit if the state started saying that renewables were allowed to capture the "states' resources" almost anywhere within the state given a small surface lease offering? We're talking about thousands of turbines being held up for that exact issue right now.

Also, the reason they're not investing isn't solely because of the federal regulatory environment. A lot of it has to do with how badly investors were burned during the last prolonged oil collapse after the industry heated up to much and to fast. These companies are pushing dividends to bring in investors that got scared away and they're trying to pay off their debt laden balance sheets from the past half decade of supply glut. Even most majors were barely staying afloat from 2014 to 2020.

 

[lawpoke87]

A) The regulations and tax structure in 2019 weren't driving significant investment at the time. Trust me. I was speaking to most of these companies.... well the ones that were still in business that is.

B) Why trade one problem just to make another one worse?

A). What was the price of oil in August 2019 was $54 a barrel. The current price last I checked was $78 and will likely be higher next year. You know as well as I that prices drive investment along with the factors I mentioned. That said, we set a production record in 2019 with $54 oil. Point made.

B). Exactly what problem are we making worse other than cheaper energy prices and lesser shortages and pain to consumers? Seems like a slam dunk decision given the current inflationary pressures. These measures would not lead to recessionary pressures btw unlike the current path of the Fed.

Zero common sense here.

 

[noble cane]

I am still intrigued by renewable energy... have we finally created perpetual motion machines?

 

[astonmartin708]

A). What was the price of oil in August 2019 was $54 a barrel. The current price last I checked was $78 and will likely be higher next year. You know as well as I that prices drive investment along with the factors I mentioned. That said, we set a production record in 2019 with $54 oil. Point made.

B). Exactly what problem are we making worse other than cheaper energy prices and lesser shortages and pain to consumers? Seems like a slam dunk decision given the current inflationary pressures. These measures would not lead to recessionary pressures btw unlike the current path of the Fed.

Zero common sense here.

I think there is no common sense for what you're arguing. I'm arguing that oil should be held to fair market standards. When money is there to be made, it will be made. If you or others think that it will continue to be priced greater than it is today, then why should you be afraid to invest?

As far as problems, you're artificially propping up a commodity that is doing long term irreparable harm to society. The only reason this is an argument at all is because oil has been long engrained in our society, but things don't have to continue that way. Change is possible.

 

[lawpoke87]

I think there is no common sense for what you're arguing. I'm arguing that oil should be held to fair market standards. When money is there to be made, it will be made. If you or others think that it will continue to be priced greater than it is today, then why should you be afraid to invest?

As far as problems going you're artificially propping up a commodity that is doing long term irreparable harm to society. The only reason this is an argument at all is because oil has been long engrained in our society, but things don't have to continue that way. Change is possible.

Those fair market standards are greatly influenced by the whims of world governments. You of course know this just like you were aware of the price of oil in 2019 compared to today but failed to mention the same. I’m arguing in a time of shortages and great consumer pain we should take steps to revert back to regulatory standards which promote production to offset the coming shortages and inflationary pain being suffered by the lower and middle classes. Common sense.

You’re arguing against taking measures to reduce energy shortages because it may temporarily lead to more oil usage at a time of high inflation and energy shortages. Brilliant. Less not take steps to increase energy production knowing shortages are coming and corresponding high prices are leading us into a recession.

 

[URedskin54]

The people will suffer what they must comrade

 

[astonmartin708]

Those fair market standards are greatly influenced by the whims of world governments. You of course know this just like you were aware of the price of oil in 2019 compared to today but failed to mention the same. I’m arguing in a time of shortages and great consumer pain we should take steps to revert back to regulatory standards which promote production to offset the coming shortages and inflationary pain being suffered by the lower and middle classes. Common sense.

You’re arguing against taking measures to reduce energy shortages because it may temporarily lead to more oil usage at a time of high inflation and energy shortages. Brilliant. Less not take steps to increase energy production knowing shortages are coming and corresponding high prices are leading us into a recession.

I don’t believe we should change regulatory standards whimsically. I’m arguing that oil and gas production will increase to match demand no matter what and that we don’t need to hamstring our ultimate goals (one of which is to prevent ourselves from being so susceptible to such volatility as a society) by giving a sweetheart deal to oil companies so they feel more comfortable that we will have use for them in the long run. We won’t. We don’t intend to. So if there’s money to be made, they should make it while they can. And if they don’t intend to do that, then I say we declare a national emergency and (At least temporarily) nationalize their efforts just like we did in the WW’s

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Those fair market standards are greatly influenced by the whims of world governments.

/\ Knows it, and completely ignores it, even in his justified response.

He wants government to take over the industry. But if companies own it, he doesn't want our government making adjustments for actions of other governments to help our companies compete in the marketplace.

 

[aTUfan]

Why does Oil have to (or get to) live on a perpetual sweetheart deal? Any other industry would kill for some of the inherent advantages that they still have to this day. Like states saying they have the right to capture taxable mineral resources on any piece of private or state land so long as the wellsite is a certain distance from a residential structure and as long as they offer a 'fair' surface lease price. And if the surface owner or mineral lease owner don't want to play ball, then it's essentially tough noogies unless they can show they are going to access those minerals themselves in a timely manner. Do you know how many renewables installations would be immediately green lit if the state started saying that renewables were allowed to capture the "states' resources" almost anywhere within the state given a small surface lease offering? We're talking about thousands of turbines being held up for that exact issue right now.

Also, the reason they're not investing isn't solely because of the federal regulatory environment. A lot of it has to do with how badly investors were burned during the last prolonged oil collapse after the industry heated up to much and to fast. These companies are pushing dividends to bring in investors that got scared away and they're trying to pay off their debt laden balance sheets from the past half decade of supply glut. Even most majors were barely staying afloat from 2014 to 2020.

farm subsidies, import exemptions, .labor deals ..... see congress( biden, hrc, schumer, pelosi, etal for more.

 

[noble cane]

The people will suffer what they must comrade

Да, товарищ, Родина-мать зовет

 

[noble cane]

/\ Knows it, and completely ignores it, even in his justified response.

He wants government to take over the industry. But if companies own it, he doesn't want our government making adjustments for actions of other governments to help our companies compete in the marketplace.

Whats funny.. is that if the government controlled the energy industry, climate change would be a non starter. The govt wouldnt need to destroy that wealth in order to transfer it.

 

[lawpoke87]

/\ Knows it, and completely ignores it, even in his justified response.

He wants government to take over the industry. But if companies own it, he doesn't want our government making adjustments for actions of other governments to help our companies compete in the marketplace.

He’s advocating an entity take over an industry which said entity has promised to drive out of business. I’ve read some crazy stuff on this board but this might be the most absurd.

 

[lawpoke87]

I don’t believe we should change regulatory standards whimsically. I’m arguing that oil and gas production will increase to match demand no matter what and that we don’t need to hamstring our ultimate goals (one of which is to prevent ourselves from being so susceptible to such volatility as a society) by giving a sweetheart deal to oil companies so they feel more comfortable that we will have use for them in the long run. We won’t. We don’t intend to. So if there’s money to be made, they should make it while they can. And if they don’t intend to do that, then I say we declare a national emergency and (At least temporarily) nationalize their efforts just like we did in the WW’s

Whimsically? We’re facing an energy crisis which we haven’t seen in decades. We’re dealing with inflationary pressures and decreasing real wages the likes of which haven’t been seen in many of our lifetimes. We’re starring at an upcoming recession where people will lose their jobs, houses, and even the ability to support their families. But yeah, temporarily changing regulations to what they were 20 months ago is “whimsical”.

What an absurd argument not to mention intellectually deficient.

 

[astonmartin708]

He’s advocating an entity take over an industry which said entity has promised to drive out of business. I’ve read some crazy stuff on this board but this might be the most absurd.

I'm advocating for a takeover because the companies that we're talking about are purely answerable to shareholders. They have no incentive and no plan to ever reduce the size of their business because it will ultimately benefit the US (both in terms of addressing climate change and in making us less tied up in energy markets that are swayed by other entities that are nationalized themselves).

Our oil & gas dependence has been and will continue to be our Achilles heel in international relations. I argue to nationalize it so we can justify winding it down to a level which provides enough profit to sustain the suppressed commodity demand that will exist after a widespread transition to alternative energy sources.

We will continue to need petrochemicals, lubricating and insulating oils, etc... If we can wipe out a healthy chunk of the ~60% of transportation related commodity demand that oil currently depends on for revenue growth, we will actually take steps to become truly energy independent while also dealing a blow to thorns in our side like OPEC + Russia. Part of that means solving the demand side of the equation by changing our transportation fleets. The other part is changing our supply side away from oil and towards other methods of energy generation.

 

[astonmartin708]

Whimsically? We’re facing an energy crisis which we haven’t seen in decades. We’re dealing with inflationary pressures and decreasing real wages the likes of which haven’t been seen in many of our lifetimes. We’re starring at an upcoming recession where people will lose their jobs, houses, and even the ability to support their families. But yeah, temporarily changing regulations to what they were 20 months ago is “whimsical”.

What an absurd argument not to mention intellectually deficient.

That's the thing... changing regulations temporarily won't spur investment. The changes the industry are asking for won't be "temporary" in nature. What you're promising is artificially prolonging the economic viability oil production for a very long time in return for increased oil production today.

I would rather take my bitter medicine now and not make a deal with the devil. In all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised if this was fundamentally a major cause for Russia invading Ukraine. They probably see the conflict (and resulting economic fallout partially related to O&G) as a longterm guarantee of market viability for their oil & gas. My goal would be to make it backfire. Kill their market share as the US eats up the gas market with the excesses we already have, all while transitioning as fast as possible to alternatives.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

I'm advocating for a takeover because the companies that we're talking about are purely answerable to shareholders. They have no incentive and no plan to ever reduce the size of their business because it will ultimately benefit the US (both in terms of addressing climate change and in making us less tied up in energy markets that are swayed by other entities that are nationalized themselves).

Our oil & gas dependence has been and will continue to be our Achilles heel in international relations. I argue to nationalize it so we can justify winding it down to a level which provides enough profit to sustain the suppressed commodity demand that will exist after a widespread transition to alternative energy sources.

We will continue to need petrochemicals, lubricating and insulating oils, and oil for reliable emergency generation where other forms aren't yet feasible. If we can wipe out a healthy chunk of the ~60% of transportation related commodity demand that oil currently depends on for revenue growth, we will actually take steps to become truly energy independent while also dealing a blow to thorns in our side like OPEC + Russia.

That's why all the major oil companies have research arms in renewables. They'll just hold on to the bitter end and go out of business.(Not!)

 

[astonmartin708]

That's why all the major oil companies have research arms in renewables. They'll just hold on to the bitter end and go out of business.(Not!)

Some are certainly playing both sides of the table. Most are not. I think ultimately they don't like having to actively participate in technological markets that are still emerging, which means greater risk in operations, and markets that are more heavily regulated in terms of supply expectations. Again, they answer to shareholders, and shareholders typically don't care about the environment or what's good for Americans in the long term.

Oil companies, especially the US based ones don't tend to act in a utilitarian manner. The main O&G companies with a maintained foot in the door to renewables are BP & Royal Dutch Shell. US based companies are more interested in prolonging their foothold via carbon capture which isn't fundamentally a renewable technology.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Some are certainly playing both sides of the table. Most are not. I think ultimately they don't like having to actively participate in technological markets that are still emerging, which means greater risk in operations, and markets that are more heavily regulated in terms of supply expectations. Again, they answer to shareholders, and shareholders typically don't care about the environment or what's good for Americans in the long term.

Oil companies, especially the US based ones don't tend to act in a utilitarian manner. The main O&G companies with a maintained foot in the door to renewables are BP & Royal Dutch Shell. US based companies are more interested in prolonging their foothold via carbon capture which isn't fundamentally a renewable technology.

Exxon, Texaco, & Conoco/Phillips are all doing research into Hydrogen & Biofuels.

Chevron is way behind the curve and is only doing a little research in Biofuels.

 

[noble cane]

I'm advocating for a takeover...

So.. after you nationalize the energy sector... whats next... telecom... microchips.. transportation...agriculture?

 

[astonmartin708]

Exxon, Texaco, & Conoco/Phillips are all doing research into Hydrogen & Biofuels.

Chevron is way behind the curve and is only doing a little research in Biofuels.

Hydrogen is viable if it’s produced with renewables or low carbon sources, but by and large oil companies just want to keep using the resources they have access to to make it, which is essentially just rebranding gasoline. It might help in the fight for climate change (if you captured the C02 from the methane conversion process and sequestered it), but it certainly doesn’t help in the fight to extract ourselves from the global fossil fuel market.

Also, the sequestration of the C02 would become extremely unprofitable if you replaced oil burning engines with hydrogen ones. What makes Carbon Sequestration economically viable on a large scale is that the C02 is used in reservoir floods with C02 essentially pushing the liquid hydrocarbons out of the reservoir. (The extracted hydrocarbon liquids providing most of the value in the floods) It doesn’t work when you are trying to do C02 floods to capture Methane.

If you are just sequestering C02 without recovering the oil for sale, it would just mean that you are paying a bunch of money to compress C02 and send it into a porous reservoir without a valuable byproduct to show for it.

I suppose that’s under the assumption that oil would have zero value which is inaccurate…it would due to needs for other use cases besides transport, but it wouldn’t be needed on the same scale it is now.

 

[aTUfan]

So.. after you nationalize the energy sector... whats next... telecom... microchips.. transportation...agriculture?

isnt government take over of a business sector, marxism, communisim, or fasism. Its definally a step beyond socialism.

 

[astonmartin708]

isnt government take over of a business sector, marxism, communisim, or fasism. Its definally a step beyond socialism.

Not in times of emergency. In WWII the government basically told every industry what was expected of them.

 

[noble cane]

Not in times of emergency. In WWII the government basically told every industry what was expected of them.

But that had a distinct endpoint...

The "emergency" you are talking about is never-ending (or will be, because govts like power and control)...

 

[lawpoke87]

Not in times of emergency. In WWII the government basically told every industry what was expected of them.

The difference is in WWII the government told industry to increase production of “x” to assist in the war effort. Contrast the current situation where the government isn’t doing a damn thing to increase oil and gas production during a time of shortages, high prices and inflation. We are instead solely relying on the Fed to send us into a recession and destroy peoples livelihoods and lives. You won’t move to Florida out of fear of your livelihood being destroyed yet you support doing nothing to assist Americans as well as the world with the pending energy crisis. Just dumbfounding.

As I said above, relying solely on the Fed to handle this crisis is a huge mistake. It’s going to get worse and the Fed doesn’t answer to the people most affected by what’s to come. Yet here we are…

 

[astonmartin708]

The difference is in WWII the government told industry to increase production of “x” to assist in the war effort. Contrast the current situation where the government isn’t doing a damn thing to increase oil and gas production during a time of shortages, high prices and inflation. We are instead solely relying on the Fed to send us into a recession and destroy peoples livelihoods and lives. You won’t move to Florida out of fear of your livelihood being destroyed yet you support doing nothing to assist Americans as well as the world with the pending energy crisis. Just dumbfounding.

As I said above, relying solely on the Fed to handle this crisis is a huge mistake. It’s going to get worse and the Fed doesn’t answer to the people most affected by what’s to come. Yet here we are…

This is not true. The government has asked producers to produce more. Instead of investing the earnings from high commodity prices into projects to produce more oil, producers have bought back stock and increased dividends. I do think these companies should be allowed to help their books, but in times like these, dividend increases shouldnt be at the front of the companies’ minds.

When the people need more production of X in a global emergency, the companies (and shareholders) need to be encouraged (if not forced) to benefit the society in which they operate rather than only themselves.

 

[noble cane]

When the people need more production of X in a global emergency, the companies (and shareholders) need to be encouraged (if not forced) to benefit the society in which they operate rather than only themselves.

Your Uncle Karl would be so proud...

 

[lawpoke87]

Your Uncle Karl would be so proud...

When people needs more of X in a global emergency it is government’s job to take steps which encourage the production of X. Especially if said government has recently enacted steps to reduce production of the same. Now Imagine a scenario where the government has pledge to end the production of X….oh wait 😂

We’re facing a global energy and inflation emergency while our government is being ran by a bunch of imbeciles. Imbeciles, who according to Aston, sole effort consists of “asking” those who they have not only increased regulations and taxes on but have promised to run out of business to produce more. No concessions. No help. No rollbacks. No wonder we’re all screwed.

 

[noble cane]

When people needs more of X in a global emergency it is government’s job to take steps which encourage the production of X. Especially if said government has recently enacted steps to reduce production of the same. Now Imagine a scenario where the government has pledge to end the production of X….oh wait 😂

We’re facing a global energy and inflation emergency while our government is being ran by a bunch of imbeciles. Imbeciles, who according to Aston, sole effort consists of “asking” those who they have not only increased regulations and taxes on but have promised to run out of business to produce more. No concessions. No help. No rollbacks. No wonder we’re all screwed.

The govt (read party) will advocate the end of the production of X until it controls the means of production and the resource.. then it will produce as much as possible to pay for the expansion of its social programs and cement its power and enrich its patrons..