AAC Tournament Seeding

[texcane1982]

UCONN is on a roll, since their loss at home to Temple on 12/31, they have won 7 straight games between Storrs and Hartford, two of which were impressive efforts against the top 2 teams in conference.

It would be great to not be on the same side of the bracket as UCONN, and right now they could finish as #4, #5, or #6 seed.

Even if TU knocks off Cincy, I don't think UCONN can claim the #3 seed as Cincy swept SMU and would own that tie-breaker over UCONN.

There is some real merit holding the #2 seed in this bracket, the 2 highest seeds the #2 would face in the semi's is the #3 or #6 seed, neither of which UCONN is likely to be. (Cincy or Temple #3, Memphis #6)

As the #1 seed, you are GUARANTEED to face either the #4 or #5 seed, one of which is very likely to be UCONN.


The following is a look at the 3 possible outcomes...............







If TU beats Cincy and SMU they claim the #1 seed outright and would be all but guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tournament, regardless of the outcome vs the #4 or #5 seed in AAC semi-finals. (Temple, Cincy, or UCONN)


If TU beats Cincy, but loses to SMU, they are Co-Champs, claim #2 seed, would need to beat the #7 or #10 seed in the quarterfinals, but migh stay on the right side of the bubble if they lose to the #3 seed in the semi-finals. However if they were to lose to the #6 or #11 seed in the semi-finals all bets are off.


If TU loses to both Cincy and SMU, they are still the #2 seed, but would need to advance to the AAC finals, getting by the #7 or #10 seeds in quarterfinals, and #3, #6, or #11 seed in the semi-finals.

The path to the Finals looks to be easier as the #2 seed, but clinching the #1 seed may guarantee a seat at the table before the AAC tournament even starts.



TX
This post was edited on 3/1 10:54 PM by texcane1982

 

[youngblood223]

Originally posted by texcane1982:
UCONN is on a roll, since their loss at home to Temple on 12/31, they have won 7 straight games between Storrs and Hartford, two of which were impressive efforts against the top 2 teams in conference.

It would be great to not be on the same side of the bracket as UCONN, and right now they could finish as #4, #5, or #6 seed.

Even if TU knocks off Cincy, I don't think UCONN can claim the #3 seed as Cincy swept SMU and would own that tie-breaker over UCONN.

There is some real merit holding the #2 seed in this bracket, the 2 highest seeds the #2 would face in the semi's is the #3 or #6 seed, neither of which UCONN is likely to be. (Cincy or Temple #3, Memphis #6)

As the #1 seed, you are GUARANTEED to face either the #4 or #5 seed, one of which is very likely to be UCONN.


The following is a look at the 3 possible outcomes...............







If TU beats Cincy and SMU they claim the #1 seed outright and would be all but guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tournament, regardless of the outcome vs the #4 or #5 seed in AAC semi-finals. (Temple, Cincy, or UCONN)


If TU beats Cincy, but loses to SMU, they are Co-Champs, claim #2 seed, would need to beat the #7 or #10 seed in the quarterfinals, but migh stay on the right side of the bubble if they lose to the #3 seed in the semi-finals. However if they were to lose to the #6 or #11 seed in the semi-finals all bets are off.


If TU loses to both Cincy and SMU, they are still the #2 seed, but would need to advance to the AAC finals, getting by the #7 or #10 seeds in quarterfinals, and #3, #6, or #11 seed in the semi-finals.

The path to the Finals looks to be easier as the #2 seed, but clinching the #1 seed may guarantee a seat at the table before the AAC tournament even starts.


TX
This post was edited on 3/1 10:54 PM by texcane1982

Great post! Good to see you feeling good about our chances. I like the outright title option myself, but if we end up 15-3.... I can't see how we don't get in with a win in the conference tournament. I think we'll have a great shot to get to the finals. That #3 seed will be interesting. I'd sort of like to see UCONN, Cincy, and SMU banging on each other on the other side of the bracket... And of course meanwhile we'll be zoning Temple...

 

[TU_BLA]

Seeds 3,4, 5 & 6 are all really fluid right now and it seems like all the conference heavyweights have games against each other this week.

Does anyone get the vibe that this season and crunch time mirror what we did last year some? Hit that struggle patch, come back refocused and run off a bunch of wins in a row to win/share regular season title and then tourney run?

Honestly, the 6 seed is going to be the toughest of the bunch. 4 games in 4 nights to a championship and and almost undoubtedly will have to cross the paths of 3 teams who will try to beat the crap out of you in the lane.

 

[seniorgolfer]

Silly me, but I had rather play SMU away from Dallas, than to play UConn
at their place....

 

[GoldandBlew]

Prediction:

1. SMU
2. Tulsa
3. Temple
4. Cincinnati
5. UCONN
6. Memphis
7. Tulane
8. ECU
9. UCF
10. USF
11. Houston

While I would love to win the regular season title I just don't see us beating SMU at their place. If we actually are the #2 seed, having Temple as the #3 seed and UCONN the #4/5 seed is the best alternative. I don't want to play SMU or UCONN until the finals.

 

[rabidTU]

Originally posted by GoldandBlew:
Prediction:

1. SMU
2. Tulsa
3. Temple
4. Cincinnati
5. UCONN
6. Memphis
7. Tulane
8. ECU
9. UCF
10. USF
11. Houston

While I would love to win the regular season title I just don't see us beating SMU at their place. If we actually are the #2 seed, having Temple as the #3 seed and UCONN the #4/5 seed is the best alternative. I don't want to play SMU or UCONN until the finals.

Bingo! I would be happy with a co-AAC championship (banner on the rafters) and then another flag for an NCAA trip after the AAC tournament. Or would that be three flags - regular season co-champs, AAC tourney champs and NCAA appearance or better?


This post was edited on 3/2 10:31 AM by rabidTU

 

[drboobay]

If we have the top seed it will mean we beat SMU. So winning the tournament will not be required.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by drboobay:
If we have the top seed it will mean we beat SMU. So winning the tournament will not be required.

Posted from Rivals Mobile

correct, that would also give TU a much need top 25 RPI win. I still think TU would need to beat the #8/#9 seed and advances to the semi-finals to solidify their position. Although it would be hard to imagine the outright champion of the AAC not getting in the dance regardless of what happens in Hartford.

The real elephant in the room for TU is only beating 3 Top 50 RPI teams if they beat SMU, with the posssibilty of 4 Top 50 wins if TU also beats Cincy, assuming Cincy is still a Top 50 team after the conclusion of the AAC tourney.


TX

 

[Weatherdemon]

Originally posted by texcane1982:

Originally posted by drboobay:
If we have the top seed it will mean we beat SMU. So winning the tournament will not be required.

Posted from Rivals Mobile

correct, that would also give TU a much need top 25 RPI win. I still think TU would need to beat the #8/#9 seed and advances to the semi-finals to solidify their position. Although it would be hard to imagine the outright champion of the AAC not getting in the dance regardless of what happens in Hartford.

The real elephant in the room for TU is only beating 3 Top 50 RPI teams if they beat SMU, with the posssibilty of 4 Top 50 wins if TU also beats Cincy, assuming Cincy is still a Top 50 team after the conclusion of the AAC tourney.


TX
Just to see together:

From CBS: Bold shows advantage

RPI:
#30 Tulsa
#40 Temple
#50 Cincy

#30 Tulsa: 2-4 vs Top 50: Best wins, 2 over 40 Temple.
#40 Temple 2-7 vs Top 50. Best wins, #2 KU, #50 Cincy.
#50 Cincy: 4-4 vs Top 50: Best wins, 2 over 20 SMU; #25 SDSU, 40 Temple.

#30 Tulsa: 3-1 vs 51-100
#40 [/B]Temple: 3-1 vs 51-100
#50 Cincy: 2-2 vs 51-100

#30 Tulsa: 6-1 vs 101-200[/B]
#40 Temple 4-1 vs 101-200
#50 Cincy: 5-2 vs 101-200

#30 Tulsa: 10-0 vs 201+: Worst loss: D2 SEOSU (if accounted for)
#40 Temple 11-0 vs 201+: Worst loss: 180 St Josephs[/B]
#50 Cincy: 9-1 vs 201+: Worst loss: 223 ECU

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by youngblood223:





Great post! Good to see you feeling good about our chances. I like the outright title option myself, but if we end up 15-3.... I can't see how we don't get in with a win in the conference tournament. I think we'll have a great shot to get to the finals. That #3 seed will be interesting. I'd sort of like to see UCONN, Cincy, and SMU banging on each other on the other side of the bracket... And of course meanwhile we'll be zoning Temple...

Yes sir, now that TU has moved into the RPI top 30, I believe their chances are real.





In the past 10 years, only 3 schools ranked in the RPI top 30 have been left out of the field, (#21 Missouri St. - 2006), (#30 Hofstra - 2006) , (#30 Air Force - 2007).





In the past 20 years the only 4 schools ranked in the RPI Top 35 have been left out of the field, the above 3 and
(#33 Oklahoma - 1994).





In 2006 Missouri State finished #2 in the MVC, Creighton finished #3. During their head-to-head meetings they split, and both were bounced in the MVC quarterfinals. While Creighton's RPI was #39 and Missouri State was #21, the biggest difference was quality OOC wins. Creighton beat (#26 George Mason), (#74 Xavier), whereas Missouri State only beat
(#52 Milwaukee) and (#120 ORU).





That year the MVC had 5 schools in the RPI Top 40 (#21 Missouri State) (#25 Northern Iowa) (#27 WIchita State)
(#33 Bradley) , and (#39 Creighton), 4 of those 5 went to the tournament.

The same happened to Hofstra, no quality OOC compared to the other CAA at large candidate George Mason.
As for Air Force, they had an SMU like collapse down the stretch and no OOC Top 50 RPI wins.

History indicates Top 30 RPI's are rarely left out which is very promising, however precedence exist that no quality OOC wins can under certain circumstances hurt. I do find it interesting those 3 Top 30 RPI's who were shunned occurred during back to back seasons, 2005-06 and 2006-07. I think it's reasonable to assume a change in the selection process and/or the expansion of the field has helped Top 30 RPI's since 2006-07.

Things are looking much better for TU, my how things can change in less than a week.


TX





This post was edited on 3/2 4:55 PM by texcane1982