Freshman G Elijah Joiner and Darien Jackson
Most projection systems ignore high school recruits outside of the top 50 because a) they're so hard to project and b) so few of them make an immediate impact. But anyone can tell you what Junior Etou will do this year. He's 23* years old and has played 90 career games. The fun part is speculating on the new guys. So let's give it a shot.
For other players, I used their career stats as a baseline and ran a regression based on the median career path of closest historical comps. That obviously doesn't work for the freshmen because they have no career stats, so instead I used the average TU freshman guard as a baseline and adjusted based on historical comps in the recruiting rankings. The problem here is that there's no objective way to separate Jackson and Joiner from each other. They both posted similar stats against comparable competition in high school and were both ranked similarly in recruiting rankings. So instead of posting the same thing twice, I just created a combined line for both of them.
2018 proj.: 22.4mpg, 7.3ppg, 3.1rpg, 1.5apg, 0.8spg, 0.2bpg, 1.6topg, 48.9% 2PT, 31.3% 3PT, 69.5% FT
But if you think that's too pessimistic, I've also added a poll of former TU freshman guards who played significant minutes.
So there you go. Those are my projections for the 11 eligible scholarship players this year. Next I'll try to mash everything together for a team projection.
Most projection systems ignore high school recruits outside of the top 50 because a) they're so hard to project and b) so few of them make an immediate impact. But anyone can tell you what Junior Etou will do this year. He's 23* years old and has played 90 career games. The fun part is speculating on the new guys. So let's give it a shot.
For other players, I used their career stats as a baseline and ran a regression based on the median career path of closest historical comps. That obviously doesn't work for the freshmen because they have no career stats, so instead I used the average TU freshman guard as a baseline and adjusted based on historical comps in the recruiting rankings. The problem here is that there's no objective way to separate Jackson and Joiner from each other. They both posted similar stats against comparable competition in high school and were both ranked similarly in recruiting rankings. So instead of posting the same thing twice, I just created a combined line for both of them.
2018 proj.: 22.4mpg, 7.3ppg, 3.1rpg, 1.5apg, 0.8spg, 0.2bpg, 1.6topg, 48.9% 2PT, 31.3% 3PT, 69.5% FT
But if you think that's too pessimistic, I've also added a poll of former TU freshman guards who played significant minutes.
So there you go. Those are my projections for the 11 eligible scholarship players this year. Next I'll try to mash everything together for a team projection.
Last edited:
